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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

BigChaang said:
Good Boy Bobby is trained by Nigel twiston Davies ,
so i'd have thought sooner or later he'll be stepped up in trip ?.
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I’d be very surprised if he’s at 2m once he steps into a competitive race. He’s by Flemensfirth out of a Kings Theatre mare so he’s bred for further.
 
Scooby91 said:
It's still reasonable I think. The cash out is worth 5 pts on its own , as he's never going to be a huge price and one that rightly or wrongly I'd have thought you can always get out of. Bar injury ofcourse.
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Yes, this is a good point.

Before I wrote the post I did clarify I had already backed it and a large part of it was because 365 allow some room for error!

As a general rule, 16s is tight for any horse that hasn't had a run yet though scoob. Reasonable in terms of what we've seen from connections perhaps but there are better 16/1 shots in pretty much every other race.
 
Kevloaf said:
Yes, this is a good point.

Before I wrote the post I did clarify I had already backed it and a large part of it was because 365 allow some room for error!

As a general rule, 16s is tight for any horse that hasn't had a run yet though scoob. Reasonable in terms of what we've seen from connections perhaps but there are better 16/1 shots in pretty much every other race.
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He's only going to get shorter, and we all know he'll win his maiden hurdle. He's going to be roughly 7/1 id have thought for winning a race at 1/3.
 
Scooby91 said:
He's only going to get shorter, and we all know he'll win his maiden hurdle. He's going to be roughly 7/1 id have thought for winning a race at 1/3.
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Exactly, the overreaction from just winning a two bob race will halve his price. Ante post value pretty much disappears after one run if they're trained by one of the big yards and wear certain colours.
 
Scooby91 said:
He's only going to get shorter, and we all know he'll win his maiden hurdle. He's going to be roughly 7/1 id have thought for winning a race at 1/3.
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No doubt... but that was the same with Senewalk, Sharjah, Crack Mome and Red Jack for other connections :highly_amused:

The fact Ricci had put him as his horse to follow before breaking the news live on ATR that he was out for the season might be the reason he's "kept the faith" and we don't know the horse is back yet...

I completely agree that he'll be shorter when declared, then when he wins and so on... and I am on... I just don't think it's my smartest bet :)
 
Kevloaf said:
No doubt... but that was the same with Senewalk, Sharjah, Crack Mome and Red Jack for other connections :highly_amused:

The fact Ricci had put him as his horse to follow before breaking the news live on ATR that he was out for the season might be the reason he's "kept the faith" and we don't know the horse is back yet...

I completely agree that he'll be shorter when declared, then when he wins and so on... and I am on... I just don't think it's my smartest bet :)
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I must admit I did back the mighty red jack out of those.
(damn bumper horses, blackbow is the one going to come good)
 
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Scooby91 said:
I must admit I did back the mighty red jack out of those.
(damn bumper horses, blackbow is the one going to come good)
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Haha, good old bumper horses! TBF though, depsite my negatives against general bumper horses from past seasons I do feel that a couple may be up to the standard this time around and in doing so have backed Blackbow (Sup) & Carefully Selected (AB) for novice hurdle races already.
 
Annamix he had a setback that kept him off the track last season, but he’s back and in good form now. A lot of people had a high opinion of him this time last year and I don’t have any reason to think why he can’t be the horse he looked like he was going to be last year. The work he was doing last year would suggest he will be a two-miler and while he is a year older now, I think that is the route we’ll look to send him down.
 
Scooby91 said:
Annamix he had a setback that kept him off the track last season, but he’s back and in good form now. A lot of people had a high opinion of him this time last year and I don’t have any reason to think why he can’t be the horse he looked like he was going to be last year. The work he was doing last year would suggest he will be a two-miler and while he is a year older now, I think that is the route we’ll look to send him down.
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Reasonably happy with those quotes although they do support my point that he is being backed as a result of RR's comments which are based on what he showed last year. I guess it's a bit early for them to have up to speed, but fact is nobody knows if he will perform at home the way he did last year, and then he has to do it on the track. Still reasonably happy with 20s but wouldn't want to be touching him at his current price.
 
They're certainly positive comments.

The only thing is he isn't saying specifically that HE think's he is special, he's saying others think highly and they might be right.

I seem to think he was more effusive about Douvan but it is more positive than he was on horses like Min, Melon and Vautour in their novice hurdle years

I'm pleased to be on, and I love the confidence, I just wanted to highlight that we get false dawns, lightning doesn't strike twice and all the other cliches that come out when a horse hasn't had a run
 
It’s interesting that there hasn’t been talk of another hot pot for this year yet with Ricci. It’s not like they would have stopped recruiting potential top class novices for him just because Annamix was injured.
 
Yeah tha tis an intersting point...and imagine if it HAD stopped them, you'd be even more confident!
 
Topping up Raya Time @ 40/1 (Skybet)

Posted this on the AP thread in July but belongs on this thread - Won a National Hunt Flat Race at Killarney by 14l, backed from 33/1 overnight to 11/4. The horse has just been sold to Roger Brookhouse for £150,000 by Sam Curling. Interestingly, last year’s winner of this race, Summerville Boy, was backed from 50/1 overnight in to 7/2, and was bought by Roger from Curling for £130,000 9 days after that same race. Raya Time has been bred by Simon Munir.

The horse that came in 2nd that day taking a 14 length thumping was Jan Maat, who won over the weekend at Fairyhouse.
 
Gordon on Commander Of Fleet

“He’s a nice, sharp horse that looks like he’ll be a two miler over hurdles. He’s ready to go, we’re just waiting for some rain with him.”

Can’t imagine the 25’s will last long.
 
SeanRock said:
Gordon on Commander Of Fleet

“He’s a nice, sharp horse that looks like he’ll be a two miler over hurdles. He’s ready to go, we’re just waiting for some rain with him.”

Can’t imagine the 25’s will last long.
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Hills already cut to 16's. I've had to take some 25's, been backing heavily for the Ballymore, so that comment is a real kick in the teeth.
 
I've taken the 25/1 with B365. Hopefully I'll be able to cash out for a profit when they step him up to 2.5 miles later in the season.:devilish:
 
SeanRock said:
Gordon on Commander Of Fleet

“He’s a nice, sharp horse that looks like he’ll be a two miler over hurdles. He’s ready to go, we’re just waiting for some rain with him.”

Can’t imagine the 25’s will last long.
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Doesn't surprise me one bit, I'd say Felix Desjy looks more a Ballymore option for same connections at this moment in time!
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Doesn't surprise me one bit, I'd say Felix Desjy looks more a Ballymore option for same connections at this moment in time!
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I actually think that as Fame And Glory was stayer on the flat, his progeny will need 2 and a half miles even early in their careers. I applied a similar logic when Yeats started siring NH horses and it proved pretty accurate. Gordon Elliott has forgotten more about horse racing than I’ll ever know but I’d not write off the Ballymore completely.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I actually think that as Fame And Glory was stayer on the flat, his progeny will need 2 and a half miles even early in their careers. I applied a similar logic when Yeats started siring NH horses and it proved pretty accurate. Gordon Elliott has forgotten more about horse racing than I’ll ever know but I’d not write off the Ballymore completely.
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Yeah I can see the angle for sure, though as has been said before you need to be a speedy stayer for a Supreme, due to the tempo they go off at and the hill of course. I would never say COF is 100% destined for this race, and admittedly have backed him also for the Ballymore, but currently I'd have him down more for this race for my own reasons.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I've taken the 25/1 with B365. Hopefully I'll be able to cash out for a profit when they step him up to 2.5 miles later in the season.:devilish:
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Me too, put the same stake on him for this as I'd had for the Ballymore. So at 25s and 22s it works out at an average of 13.5, which is around the same as his any race price. Obviously not covered if he ends up in a handicap like Blow by Blow last year, but doesn't have to be a real let down if you look like you have chosen the wrong race
 
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