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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

Exactly. We all have access to the same data and video. You need to reach a point where you trust your own judgement and bet accordingly.
 
I very much do stick to my own strategy. I'm just very open and don't mind showing how its evolving as I get better and better year on year.

The point you make quevega is perfectly valid and is always on my mind! I've been a lot more selective this season, with higher stakes on fewer horses overall too, as Innoko says.

For this race in particular I'd rather try and beat the odds while 365 are doing what they're doing. In all likelihood I'll cash out Tornado Flyer, Thomas Darby, Battleoverdoyen and Angels Breath for no losses.

I think it perhaps looks more scatter gun than it is...

And I do always back my own judgement, bar the French form for Juveniles ... but whilst I agree everyone has access to the same information, reading well constructed cases on here, by tipsters, by pundits is ALL part of forming your 'own' opinion. I watch replays on mute to avoid being influenced by commentators where I can too.

I've made plenty of cases for horses on this forum so I know(or at least hope) that comment about backing my own judgement isn't aimed at me ... I could very easily post one liners picking holes in others bets without having my open approach but I like to think we can all learn together :triumphant:
 
Kevloaf said:
I very much do stick to my own strategy. I'm just very open and don't mind showing how its evolving as I get better and better year on year.

The point you make quevega is perfectly valid and is always on my mind! I've been a lot more selective this season, with higher stakes on fewer horses overall too, as Innoko says.

For this race in particular I'd rather try and beat the odds while 365 are doing what they're doing. In all likelihood I'll cash out Tornado Flyer, Thomas Darby, Battleoverdoyen and Angels Breath for no losses.

I think it perhaps looks more scatter gun than it is...

And I do always back my own judgement, bar the French form for Juveniles ... but whilst I agree everyone has access to the same information, reading well constructed cases on here, by tipsters, by pundits is ALL part of forming your 'own' opinion. I watch replays on mute to avoid being influenced by commentators where I can too.

I've made plenty of cases for horses on this forum so I know(or at least hope) that comment about backing my own judgement isn't aimed at me ... I could very easily post one liners picking holes in others bets without having my open approach but I like to think we can all learn together :triumphant:
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Just to clarify, my post wasn't directed at you Kev, just an observation in general. :)
 
Kevloaf said:
I very much do stick to my own strategy. I'm just very open and don't mind showing how its evolving as I get better and better year on year.

The point you make quevega is perfectly valid and is always on my mind! I've been a lot more selective this season, with higher stakes on fewer horses overall too, as Innoko says.

For this race in particular I'd rather try and beat the odds while 365 are doing what they're doing. In all likelihood I'll cash out Tornado Flyer, Thomas Darby, Battleoverdoyen and Angels Breath for no losses.

I think it perhaps looks more scatter gun than it is...

And I do always back my own judgement, bar the French form for Juveniles ... but whilst I agree everyone has access to the same information, reading well constructed cases on here, by tipsters, by pundits is ALL part of forming your 'own' opinion. I watch replays on mute to avoid being influenced by commentators where I can too.

I've made plenty of cases for horses on this forum so I know(or at least hope) that comment about backing my own judgement isn't aimed at me ... I could very easily post one liners picking holes in others bets without having my open approach but I like to think we can all learn together :triumphant:
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spot on that.

I once had a discussion with a mate about information and knowledge in general.

I'd mentioned to him a couple of horses that he subsequently heard mentioned by racing post tipsters, So he was saying that I'd just nicked my ideas from them, even though I proved to him (not sure I needed too but he was annoying me) that I'd mentioned to him way before the article or podcast was published.

I then asked him to think hard about where he gets his ideas and thoughts from and strongly suggested that they don't just pop up in his fucking head from nowhere.
That's why most humans watch, read, listen, learn, digest and apply.

I mean, we wouldn't know there was a God without the Bible and adults telling us whilst we're young children who don;t know better, would we :highly_amused:
 
It works for you so why change it. Filtering the plethora of opinions to form my own opinion would drive me insane I couldn't bet like that personally.
 
boopa said:
It works for you so why change it. Filtering the plethora of opinions to form my own opinion would drive me insane I couldn't bet like that personally.
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It's insane not to do that.
 
There's more than one way to a skin a cat. I bet my own opinion. I have been doing it for a living for 4-years now.
 
boopa said:
There's more than one way to a skin a cat. I bet my own opinion. I have been doing it for a living for 4-years now.
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I bet based on my own opinion also, but it's definitely based to a certain degree on other peoples opinions, which includes pundits, trainers, jockeys, ratings compilers, clerks of the course, weathermen, Handicappers, etc.

Which was my point.
If you don't use these other opinions Boopa, even to a small degree, then I'd say you're insane, or GOD
 
The bookmakers traders, or betfair's SPs could be classed as other people's opinions.

To ignore those before making a bet is impossible, as even if you don't know the price beforehand, you'd only make the bet based on their opinion being wrong.
 
Kevloaf said:
The bookmakers traders, or betfair's SPs could be classed as other people's opinions.

To ignore those before making a bet is impossible, as even if you don't know the price beforehand, you'd only make the bet based on their opinion being wrong.
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knew I'd missed someone off
 
quevega said:
I bet based on my own opinion also, but it's definitely based to a certain degree on other peoples opinions, which includes pundits, trainers, jockeys, ratings compilers, clerks of the course, weathermen, Handicappers, etc.

Which was my point.
If you don't use these other opinions Boopa, even to a small degree, then I'd say you're insane, or GOD
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By opinion I mean what other punters write, say or tip. Some have implied they gather every punters opinion of a horse or race and the amalgamation of that is their final judgement. That's why some of you have huge books because you are betting many different opinions rather than your own. That's not how I work.
 
boopa said:
There's more than one way to a skin a cat. I bet my own opinion. I have been doing it for a living for 4-years now.
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I’d agree. Having too many opinions becomes a distraction and at the end of the day, you’re betting with our own money, not the tipsters or pundits cash. It has to be objective information to be used effectively in my eyes.

I’m all about Due Dilligence and justifying each bet to myself based on the criteria I set. I used to get sucked into so called ‘tips’ but they are usually just noise.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I’d agree. Having too many opinions becomes a distraction and at the end of the day, you’re betting with our own money, not the tipsters or pundits cash. It has to be objective information to be used effectively in my eyes.

I’m all about Due Dilligence and justifying each bet to myself based on the criteria I set. I used to get sucked into so called ‘tips’ but they are usually just noise.
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This is what I meant. If you want to be pedantic the odds themselves are just the amalgamation of opinion but that's not what I was referring to.

If you work in horse racing and backed every piece of inside info from trainers, jockeys etc you would go skint very quickly.

I'm not digging out anyone who does it differently. Do what works for you.
 
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boopa said:
This is what I meant. If you want to be pedantic the odds themselves are just the amalgamation of opinion but that's not what I was referring to.

If you work in horse racing and backed every piece of inside info from trainers, jockeys etc you would go skint very quickly.

I'm not digging out anyone who does it differently. Do what works for you.
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I know what you meant mate, was just messing about.
 
boopa said:
By opinion I mean what other punters write, say or tip. Some have implied they gather every punters opinion of a horse or race and the amalgamation of that is their final judgement. That's why some of you have huge books because you are betting many different opinions rather than your own. That's not how I work.
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That isn't an accurate description of what I do at all boopa.

I think you've misunderstood when I've said I read as much as possible too...
 
Anyone who follows tipsters probably saves a hell of a lot of time, but I enjoy spending time. Each to their own.

I started this brief conversation trying to get across the basic point that all of our opinions are based to some extent (some more than others) on other peoples opinions and thoughts. Whether you like it or not. It's a fact.

The more opinions the better for me as there's always someone who either knows more than you or has a better idea or viewpoint than you, at least sufficient enough to alter your own opinion (even slightly) on occasions.
 
boopa said:
By opinion I mean what other punters write, say or tip. Some have implied they gather every punters opinion of a horse or race and the amalgamation of that is their final judgement. That's why some of you have huge books because you are betting many different opinions rather than your own. That's not how I work.
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In the context of what's been said on this thread, and in relation to Kev specifically, it is patently obvious that his book has been built on his own analysis and not just an amalgamation of other peoples opinions. To infer otherwise is inaccurate
 
I've just gone by what was said in the 'Your procedure in narrowing down the field?' thread. Maybe I misconstrued it. Doesn't matter anyway.
 
Why don't you think Aramon will run here anymore Kevloaf ??.
 
They said they were going up in trip with Aramon, BC.

Going by Willie's comments, if Supreme have a runner in this race it will likely be Harrie. However, he does have over 20 plausible candidates for the 3 open novice hurdles so a last minute reshuffle is almost guaranteed.
 
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