Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

They are also shortest price for the Ballymore Kev :very_drunk:

Take the 16s

Took the 25s for both anyway. Just thought it was quit a notable cut but may be reading too much into it if they're shortest Ballymore too

 

[CJW]

TORNADO FLYER:

"He can go up to two and a half miles, and if he is good enough to be a Ballymore horse, he can go to two-mile-five. He should be good enough for that. He has the speed to be a two-mile novice hurdler, but we will see when he goes jumping what he is able to do."

Thats before his debut this season, from Mullins.

Any race market bet if you think he's good enough imo. I'd rather him in the ballymore, who knows really.

"TORNADO FLYER*is a bit more of a work in progress. He was a bit raw and gassy, and will have learnt a lot from his win in the maiden hurdle.

I think he’s a horse with a huge future and hopefully he can progress through the ranks."

- Ruby Walsh, after LTO win.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

No Quick Grabim in the Futures Champion Novice Hurdle.

Someone mentioned small rumour of slight injury, but this was on Twitter, so who knows!

 

[Innoko]

One horse Mullins is eager to get on the racecourse is Annamix, yet to be seen for the champion trainer since arriving from France last year, but once again prominent in Cheltenham ante-post lists.
Mullins said: “I need to get him out. He was doing great work last year and is doing good work again this year. He got injured last year.
“I was hoping we’d have a race under his belt now and come back for the race on January 5 (Lawlor’s of Naas Novice Hurdle), but it looks like a maiden hurdle somewhere now.
“I’ve been delighted how he’s been, but he needs a good dig in the ground – so he might end up down in Limerick.”

 

[SeanRock]

One horse Mullins is eager to get on the racecourse is Annamix, yet to be seen for the champion trainer since arriving from France last year, but once again prominent in Cheltenham ante-post lists.
Mullins said: “I need to get him out. He was doing great work last year and is doing good work again this year. He got injured last year.
“I was hoping we’d have a race under his belt now and come back for the race on January 5 (Lawlor’s of Naas Novice Hurdle), but it looks like a maiden hurdle somewhere now.
“I’ve been delighted how he’s been, but he needs a good dig in the ground – so he might end up down in Limerick.”

Thats interesting as the Naas Novice Hurdle is over 2m 4f. I know Champagne Fever took it in en route to the Supreme but it wouldn't exactly be Mullins normal route for a crack 2 miler.

 

[Innoko]

Thats interesting as the Naas Novice Hurdle is over 2m 4f. I know Champagne Fever took it in en route to the Supreme but it wouldn't exactly be Mullins normal route for a crack 2 miler.

Puzzled me I must admit!

 

[JackieMoon33]

Thats interesting as the Naas Novice Hurdle is over 2m 4f. I know Champagne Fever took it in en route to the Supreme but it wouldn't exactly be Mullins normal route for a crack 2 miler.

Definitely not a traditional Supreme trial

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

“Great work last year, good work this year”
“Needs dig in the ground”

 

[The Beast]

“Great work last year, good work this year”
“Needs dig in the ground”

Does not fill Annamix backers with confidence thats for sure , lets hope its Willie being Willie.

 

[JackieMoon33]

“Great work last year, good work this year”
“Needs dig in the ground”

The pessimist could interpret that as:

Annamix is not working as well as last year. He needs bottomless ground. He’s a stayer.

:highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I can't be worrying about where he goes for his maiden tbh.

Min started out over 2m 2f, Vautour ran over 2m 2f (Deloitte) his race prior to his festival win and as has already been noted Champagne Fever ran over 2m 4f & 2m 2f (Deloitte) before winning the Supreme.

Getabird also ran over 2m 4f prior to the festival but obviously struggled in the race, with the excuse being the left handed track.

I'm more inclined to make a judgement if Annamix doesn't end up in either the Moscow Flyer or the Deloitte pre festival.

 

[Stormez]

The pessimist could interpret that as:

Annamix is not working as well as last year. He needs bottomless ground. He’s a stayer.

:highly_amused:

The first thing I thought when I read it was that he isn’t working as well as last year :highly_amused:

 

[Innoko]

It was the Lawlers comment that threw me.

That is a ballymore/potato race trial. Think this lack of rain has got Willie all confused :highly_amused:

 

[Cashew King]

I found this interesting:

Every year the first three home in the Champion Bumper are somewhat lazily inserted as the ante-post favourites for the following year’s novice hurdles. However, history will tell you that this is not the place to look for future Cheltenham Festival winners, as only two of the thirty horses to fill the frame between 2008 and 2017 (last 10 years) have won at the Festival subsequently, namely Cue Card (2009 - 2013) and Champagne Fever (2012 - 2013).
Whilst that statistic is rather damning, those who possess previous Cheltenham experience do have a very good record in novice events. Take this year for example; seven of the nine novice winners had run at Prestbury Park before, with Samcro, who won the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, and Laurina, who landed the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, the only exceptions. While 11 of the 18 runners who filled the places also boasted previous experience in the Cotswolds.
If combining these two factors, which means putting a line through those who contested the 2018 Champion Bumper and those who have no Cheltenham experience to date, the two shortest priced contenders are Al Dancer, who impressively won a handicap off a mark of
129 at Cheltenham last weekend, and Thomas Darby (Supreme Novices Hurdle), who made a successful hurdling debut at Prestbury Park in October. The former is unbeaten over timber and is clearly a very promising young horse. However, a glance at the form book reveals that the latter may be the horse to focus on.

 

[Quevega]

I found this interesting:

Every year the first three home in the Champion Bumper are somewhat lazily inserted as the ante-post favourites for the following year’s novice hurdles. However, history will tell you that this is not the place to look for future Cheltenham Festival winners, as only two of the thirty horses to fill the frame between 2008 and 2017 (last 10 years) have won at the Festival subsequently, namely Cue Card (2009 - 2013) and Champagne Fever (2012 - 2013).
Whilst that statistic is rather damning, those who possess previous Cheltenham experience do have a very good record in novice events. Take this year for example; seven of the nine novice winners had run at Prestbury Park before, with Samcro, who won the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, and Laurina, who landed the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, the only exceptions. While 11 of the 18 runners who filled the places also boasted previous experience in the Cotswolds.
If combining these two factors, which means putting a line through those who contested the 2018 Champion Bumper and those who have no Cheltenham experience to date, the two shortest priced contenders are Al Dancer, who impressively won a handicap off a mark of
129 at Cheltenham last weekend, and Thomas Darby (Supreme Novices Hurdle), who made a successful hurdling debut at Prestbury Park in October. The former is unbeaten over timber and is clearly a very promising young horse. However, a glance at the form book reveals that the latter may be the horse to focus on.

I like that cashew, but there's a lot of bumper to jumper lovers on here you know.

 

[opatcho]

I found this interesting:

Every year the first three home in the Champion Bumper are somewhat lazily inserted as the ante-post favourites for the following year’s novice hurdles. However, history will tell you that this is not the place to look for future Cheltenham Festival winners, as only two of the thirty horses to fill the frame between 2008 and 2017 (last 10 years) have won at the Festival subsequently, namely Cue Card (2009 - 2013) and Champagne Fever (2012 - 2013).
Whilst that statistic is rather damning, those who possess previous Cheltenham experience do have a very good record in novice events. Take this year for example; seven of the nine novice winners had run at Prestbury Park before, with Samcro, who won the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, and Laurina, who landed the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, the only exceptions. While 11 of the 18 runners who filled the places also boasted previous experience in the Cotswolds.
If combining these two factors, which means putting a line through those who contested the 2018 Champion Bumper and those who have no Cheltenham experience to date, the two shortest priced contenders are Al Dancer, who impressively won a handicap off a mark of
129 at Cheltenham last weekend, and Thomas Darby (Supreme Novices Hurdle), who made a successful hurdling debut at Prestbury Park in October. The former is unbeaten over timber and is clearly a very promising young horse. However, a glance at the form book reveals that the latter may be the horse to focus on.

Totally agree with this, and I'm already on Thomas Darby. I think he would over turn the form with Didtheyleaveuoutto in a supreme - championship pace, and I was very impressed with his run at Cheltenham - very green as well. I'd like to see him improve, he should do given the amount of races he's had so far

I'm against bumper horses for this. Stats are against them and think those with 4-5 bumper runs under their names are normally limited in terms of improvement when taking on hurdles.

 

[opatcho]

Taking the 7/2 on Thomas Darby for the Supreme Trial on Friday.

Thought it was another nice performance from Elixir de Nutz and TD's form beating him looks very good. The Henderson horse will have to be a bit special to beat TD first time up Id say. Will be hovering over him for the Supreme in case he does!

I'm with you here, I rate Thomas Darby, but if this Angels Breath turns up on Friday and beats TD first time out.... then wow! I don't like backing horse with less than 3 - 4 hurdle wins but if he jumps well and beats TD then Angels will be promoted to the top of my list

Angels was smashed in at the odds last weekend before being withdrawn, despite the field consisting of a in-form Elixir De Nutz.

Will be keeping a very close eye on the betting and on the race this coming Friday

 

[Kevloaf]

This season, will the 'trends' about number of runs just be blown away?

Mullins / Elliott / Henderson haven't got as many runs as perhaps they usually would into (what we assume) will be their best horses....

I don't think they'll cram extra races in BEFORE Cheltenham, so is it a year to ignore those types of trends, or back them?

 

[Quevega]

I like Thomas Darby too.
On him at 25s
Angels Breath at 33s (worth backing before or during race friday if they meet, if you've not already)
Quick Grabim 50s
Annamix 20s

Really liked Eldorado Allen but cashed him out after hearing of injury.

 

[Quevega]

This season, will the 'trends' about number of runs just be blown away?

Mullins / Elliott / Henderson haven't got as many runs as perhaps they usually would into (what we assume) will be their best horses....

I don't think they'll cram extra races in BEFORE Cheltenham, so is it a year to ignore those types of trends, or back them?

I think there's a chance we only see Annamix the once, like Melon. But I'd imagine they'll try and get two races in as long as he gets a run at xmas.