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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

ComplyOrDie said:
Eldorado Allen has had a set back. Chipped bone in the 'hip', will be out for a bit, unsure on exact time scale though.
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Tizzard quoted as saying it could be 1 month or out for the season, doesn’t sound great either way, anyone cashing out?
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Tizzard quoted as saying it could be 1 month or out for the season, doesn’t sound great either way, anyone cashing out?
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I’ve reduced my points by partially cashing out. Very frustrating as I think this horse was / is the real deal but the injury has got to be a big negative. Even if he makes it the prep will not be ideal and the injury may have left its mark. I’m also keeping the faith with Annamix. Does anyone know the reason for Angel’s Breath being pulled yesterday... was it just ground related?
 
MS,
I cashed out yesterday. Very disappointing. This race continues to give me problems. Thankfully I've no other bets in this race as yet, and that may well remain the way until nearer the time.
 
Taken the 33/1 for Battleoverdoyen with 365
 
Viking Flagship said:
Intriguing race today and the two to take out of it for me are the 3rd and 4th.

Quick Grabim - ridden with huge confidence, pretty sure at any moment Ruby thought he could go and take the race, except he made a complete hash of 2 out (crucial stage). This put him on the back foot which is a nightmare in a race that becomes a sprint to the line. Finished the race extremely well and is one that I immediately thought to myself... ‘back that one next time out’. I can’t help but think WPM has better Supreme Novice candidates and perhaps Quick Grabim is one to pick up a couple of nice Irish novice race without being a ‘champion’, but 50s is TOO BIG. Definitely an overreaction and I can’t help but take a bit, knowing you can always cash out after the Royal Bond if necessary.

Choungaya - I loved the way this horse jumped a hurdle. I’ve got to hold my hands up and say that over the first couple of obstacles I thought I was watching Felix Desjy (got my Giggi colours mixed up) and was thinking “really like the way this horse jumps”... then I realised I was watching the 50/1 outsider. Followed him throughout the race and he went straight into the notebook. Skewed the last when sandwiched between the first and second but stayed on just fine to hold on for 3rd. Interestingly he made his debut over hurdles last year before switching to bumpers, suggesting they wanted to save him for a novice hurdle campaign this year. He ran very creditably in 3 bumpers before winning his maiden in October beating Monbeg Worldwide in the process (who subsequently came out and won last week). He’s by Walk in the Park (there’s a few of those that aren’t bad!), is in good hands with Joseph, probably wasn’t suited by the sprint finish today and I’m intrigued to see how he fares next time out with a view to better things. If anyone is inclined to watch the race back have a look at how he negotiates a hurdle, can be a huge advantage at Cheltenham.
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Looking forward to this upcoming race. Sill got an eye on Choungaya and think he could be one for the Martin Pipe. Really tidy jumper which I’m a big fan of when finding novices for Cheltenham.
 
Watched Battleoverdoyen in corals while out Christmas shopping. Hugely impressive Imo. Best 2m performance I've seen so far.
 
Kevloaf said:
I wonder how big a price Elixir De Nutz will be when the sexier horses have come out.

3 runs at Cheltenham for Tizzard over course and distance, 2nd, 1st, 1st


He's odds on to run in this race, 33/1 best price (36 with the boost). Slate House had a similar (not quite as good profile) and was 50/1, however I did end up posting about him a few times thinking he was over priced.


When he starts getting forgotten about after Christmas, I imagine I'll end up bnacking him. I reckon 50/1 will be available. I don't think he'll be near the top of the market, but the course form is worth a second look regardless, nearer the time...
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Seem's strange that Elixir's price hasn't changed much / at all . Like you say with his C&D , you'd think he'd be nibbled at
at the very least , I will definitely have another bet on him @ 33-1. ( or bigger as you say )
 
Face The Facts a watching brief for this/Ballymore tomorrow...
 
Taking the 7/2 on Thomas Darby for the Supreme Trial on Friday.

Thought it was another nice performance from Elixir de Nutz and TD's form beating him looks very good. The Henderson horse will have to be a bit special to beat TD first time up Id say. Will be hovering over him for the Supreme in case he does!
 
Felt like having a bit of an inward look at one of my weaker races. This has been a difficult race for me over the last couple of years, as despite backing the winner for the last 2 years, I made a net loss both times!

This is part of what I wrote in my Cheltenham 2018 summary thread under the heading "Your biggest mistakes/ The races/horses you got wrong"

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I should NOT be making a book in the race. In fact, I've just looked and because of the injury to If The Cap Fits, I would have done LOADS better if I'd waited for NRNB (or only backed horses NRNB)... I will struggle to stick to that due to my nature but that is certainly a consideration for me next year. I basically ended up with no decent value on any runner in the race that wasn't NRNB, despite firing £978's worth at it!
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To summarise, because of non runners, I ended up having to (or at least deciding to) make a book to minimise the 'damage'.


On 1st Jan last season, I'd backed 18 horses for the Supreme for a total stake of 37 pts. (One of the 18 was only a few free bet stakes)

So, where do I sit right now I hear you ask....

Well, I have backed 17 horses - 32 pts staked in total (5 pts less than last year) - which, granted, doesn't sound particualrly promising! however....

5 of the 17 are only backed with "free bets" this season so far and 2 of the 17 I've cashed out on for a net loss of 1 pt

So I have 25 pts over 10 horses, and 4 horses with "free bets". All listed below. (all are each way bar Annamix, Aramon and Raya Time)

1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle
Annamix - 2.5 pts
 20/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle
Battleoverdoyen - 2.5pts
 33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleQuick Grabim 1.5 pts
 50/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleEldorado Allen 3 pts
 33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleTornado Flyer 5 pts
 25/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleThomas Darby 3 pts
 25/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleSeddon 2.5 pts
 33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleAngel's Breath 4 pts
 33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleAramon 1 pt
 65/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleRaya Time - Any - 1 pt
 27.63/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle
Blackbow
20/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleMister Fisher
 33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleRoyal Rendezvous
33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle
Danny Kirwan
 33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle
Felix Desjy
Cashed out20/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleCommander Of FleetCashed out25/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's HurdleHollowgraphic
Non Runner25/1

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Battleoverdoyen, Quick Grabim, Eldorado Allen, Tornado Flyer, Thomas Darby, Seddon, Angels Breath are all with 365, and I expect a few to end up in the Ballymore, so will be looking to use cashout when NRNB kicks in potentially. OR I'll see how things go.
I'm trying to lay Aramon at 50.0 but no luck yet, don't think it'll be running here anymore.
Raya Time any race I've given up on for now but you never know.

Open to some constructive critisim here, and interested to see how others look at this point for this specific race.
 
KEV - I'd try and be a bit more selective:devilish: in general.

One slight negative about this forum is there's a danger that however much you justify a bet in your own mind and try and use your own thoughts on it. Which I'd like to think most would do.
You potentially let the 'missing out' factor sway you more than you realise.
Almost like not joining the Lottery syndicate at work.

I'm not saying you do this - per say.
But it is something I personally have to watch myself for. So I assume others have the same thoughts, whether they admit it or indeed realise it.

Using and playing the Cashback facility is another matter altogether and whilst that's risky as B365 can change it at any minute. I can see the edge with this and how this would increase dart throwing a little bit more than the norm.
 
quevega said:
KEV - I'd try and be a bit more selective:devilish: in general.

One slight negative about this forum is there's a danger that however much you justify a bet in your own mind and try and use your own thoughts on it. Which I'd like to think most would do.
You potentially let the 'missing out' factor sway you more than you realise.
Almost like not joining the Lottery syndicate at work.

I'm not saying you do this - per say.
But it is something I personally have to watch myself for. So I assume others have the same thoughts, whether they admit it or indeed realise it.

Using and playing the Cashback facility is another matter altogether and whilst that's risky as B365 can change it at any minute. I can see the edge with this and how this would increase dart throwing a little bit more than the norm.
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I think this is an excellent point. In reality, if you listened to everyone then you could have every single horse backed at some stage.

Very important to take your own view at times and stick to your own strategy.

As I've stated earlier in a post, larger stake less horses for me nowadays.
 
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