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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2019

Kevloaf said:
Are there any any race prices for him?

It was am eye catching run I agree
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Im waiting for that Kev. Hills stating they'll email me a price. usual stuff. Sigh. Gonna be 14s best with them anyway.
 
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how well did the 12.15 work out:highly_amused:
Shady wins on the line from Ballyward. Superb.
Still 33s with 365 if you're quick?
 
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doctorwu said:
how well did the 12.15 work out:highly_amused:
Shady wins on the line from Ballyward. Superb.
Still 33s with 365 if you're quick?
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Yep still 33s and possibly the obvious mullins horse for this as well, given bacardys misfortunes
 
Ballyward jumped really well and stopped when he hit the front. When SO came past him he picked up again. A nice fencing debut and plenty to build on imo.
 
Have gone and backed Ballward for this as well - agree 33/1 is decent after that run and I feel I may have to start looking elsewhere on the Mullins runner in this race now. Jumped well and although i'd be slightly wary about him being caught late on by Shady Operator - he's sure to come on for the run I imagine especially how a lot of Willie's horses have been running over Christmas.

I still haven't given up hope on Bacardys - for me he ran a great race, ideal with this race in mind until of course the fall at the last. Not fluent but for me he didn't make a mistake until the last and even then - it wasn't the jump that cost him as such, he jumped it ok but just knuckled on landing. Gutted as for me the amount of ground (had to be well over 10 lengths) he made up between the second last and evidence we have on how he won and finished his races off in his hurdle wins means i'm certain he'd have won and won with at least a few lengths spare. It's clutching at straws i'm sure but...Rubys only 5 chase rides in the last 14 days:

Belshill - Grade 1 Savills Chase worth €103k for the winner and the top staying chase in Ireland over Christmas
Bacardys - Beginners Chase worth €10k
Livelovelaugh - Paddy Power Chase worth €110k to the winner and biggest handicaps in Ireland over Christmas
Getabird - Grade 1 Novice Chase with one of their best novices (worth €59k)
Footpad - Grade 1 Chase worth €73k for the winner and the leading 2m open chase in Ireland over Christmas

Spot the odd one out?! The fact Ruby was willing to ride him having sat out of so many chases lately to me shows he clearly can't be schooling bad either - he just wouldn't take the risk.

Still think he could perform well in the 4 miler but it would be naive to think that fall may well of ruined his chances for it, hence going in for Ballyward now.

On the winner today - Shady Operator - does he warrant more attention than the runner up for this though? Apologies if anyone has brought him up for this previously but he ran a cracking race with this in mind as well. His hurdles form looks decent - was only 4 lengths back from Cracking Smart in a maiden hurdle, only 4 lengths behind Sharjah over 2 miles and was 2nd in a big field hurdle at the Punchestown Festival (always something I like). 3rd on chase debut behind Chris's Dream and Gun Digger who was fortunate to win and not come second behind Bacardys a few days ago :devilish:

*just seen SO's price 16/1 so hovering over being fav! Nothing original there then. Makes the 33/1 Ballyward more appealing then at twice the price.

He's of course another potential JP runner to slot into this race and the graded / handicaps as per a couple of posts back. I still have Jerrysback as my number one for this race. He got raised to 148 after finishing second to Vinndication. So that would blow any hope of him going for either the Kim Muir or Novice Handicap Chase so for handicaps that would only leave either the Ultima or the Plate as options now. I expect where he runs next he may well break the 150OR mark too and I think they'd be looking at better handicapped horses then him so it would only be whether he goes for the RSA/JLT
 
jono said:
Have gone and backed Ballward for this as well - agree 33/1 is decent after that run and I feel I may have to start looking elsewhere on the Mullins runner in this race now. Jumped well and although i'd be slightly wary about him being caught late on by Shady Operator - he's sure to come on for the run I imagine especially how a lot of Willie's horses have been running over Christmas.

I still haven't given up hope on Bacardys - for me he ran a great race, ideal with this race in mind until of course the fall at the last. Not fluent but for me he didn't make a mistake until the last and even then - it wasn't the jump that cost him as such, he jumped it ok but just knuckled on landing. Gutted as for me the amount of ground (had to be well over 10 lengths) he made up between the second last and evidence we have on how he won and finished his races off in his hurdle wins means i'm certain he'd have won and won with at least a few lengths spare. It's clutching at straws i'm sure but...Rubys only 5 chase rides in the last 14 days:

Belshill - Grade 1 Savills Chase worth €103k for the winner and the top staying chase in Ireland over Christmas
Bacardys - Beginners Chase worth €10k
Livelovelaugh - Paddy Power Chase worth €110k to the winner and biggest handicaps in Ireland over Christmas
Getabird - Grade 1 Novice Chase with one of their best novices (worth €59k)
Footpad - Grade 1 Chase worth €73k for the winner and the leading 2m open chase in Ireland over Christmas

Spot the odd one out?! The fact Ruby was willing to ride him having sat out of so many chases lately to me shows he clearly can't be schooling bad either - he just wouldn't take the risk.

Still think he could perform well in the 4 miler but it would be naive to think that fall may well of ruined his chances for it, hence going in for Ballyward now.

On the winner today - Shady Operator - does he warrant more attention than the runner up for this though? Apologies if anyone has brought him up for this previously but he ran a cracking race with this in mind as well. His hurdles form looks decent - was only 4 lengths back from Cracking Smart in a maiden hurdle, only 4 lengths behind Sharjah over 2 miles and was 2nd in a big field hurdle at the Punchestown Festival (always something I like). 3rd on chase debut behind Chris's Dream and Gun Digger who was fortunate to win and not come second behind Bacardys a few days ago :devilish:

*just seen SO's price 16/1 so hovering over being fav! Nothing original there then. Makes the 33/1 Ballyward more appealing then at twice the price.

He's of course another potential JP runner to slot into this race and the graded / handicaps as per a couple of posts back. I still have Jerrysback as my number one for this race. He got raised to 148 after finishing second to Vinndication. So that would blow any hope of him going for either the Kim Muir or Novice Handicap Chase so for handicaps that would only leave either the Ultima or the Plate as options now. I expect where he runs next he may well break the 150OR mark too and I think they'd be looking at better handicapped horses then him so it would only be whether he goes for the RSA/JLT
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Some good stuff there Jono.
The quandry with the JP horses is Ok Corral is also in the mix and I think already been mentioned by henderson for this race.
With it being amateur jockeys, I'd imagine JP would only run 2 max ?
So it'll depend on how they juggle them.
Nicky has santini of course.
Who knows ?
Jerrysback likely handicapper given experience so maybe Ultima ?
 
quevega said:
Some good stuff there Jono.
The quandry with the JP horses is Ok Corral is also in the mix and I think already been mentioned by henderson for this race.
With it being amateur jockeys, I'd imagine JP would only run 2 max ?
So it'll depend on how they juggle them.
Nicky has santini of course.
Who knows ?
Jerrysback likely handicapper given experience so maybe Ultima ?
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Yeah unlike Gigginstown who have and will run several - I can't see anymore than 2 runners for JP here and even that's a push.
Looking back over the last 8 runnings of the race he's only ever had 1 runner,

2018 - No Comment 9/1 (O'Connor)
2017 - Edwulf 5/1 (O'Connor)
2016 - Minella Rocco 8/1 (O'Connor)
2015 - Cause of Causes 8/1 (Codd)
2014 - Shutthefrontdoor 4/1 (Carberry)
2013 - no runner
2012 - no runner
2011 - no runner

All fairly fancied at single figure odds and with a top jockey onboard. I can't off the top of my head think who else they had for each year (as in who they had to shuffle the pack for RSA/JLT/handicaps etc) but that suggests they are happy to go with one shot in the race with the best amateur onboard rather than stack the field with other ameteurs?

I'd be very surprised if Jerrysback went for the Plate over 2m5 but I could see the thinking behind him going for the Ultima - on the basis for me we'll see the best of him over 3 miles plus so if they wait until the festival without trying 3 miles - he may be fairly well handicapped just for the step up in trip. Definitely think he's a 150+ horse over staying chases.

Next runs for a lot of these JP horses will be interesting

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just had a look at JP's runners in the Kim Muir in that same time period:

2018 - Squauateur 5/1 (Codd) & Pendra 14/1 (O'Connor)
2017 - Upswing 16/1 (O'Connor) & Another Hero 9/1 (John J O'Neill) & Squauateur 5/1 (Codd)
2016 - Cause of Causes 9/2 (Codd) & Upswing 8/1 (O'Connor)
2015 - Tap Night 2 (Mangan)
2014 - Cause of Causes 13/2 (Carberry) & Lost Glory 50/1 (Walton)
2013 - Alfie Sherrin 9/1 (Berry) & Prince of Pirates 14/1 (de Boinville)
2012 - SunnyhillBoy 13/2 (Berry)
2011 - Can't Buy Time 18/1 (Berry)

So they have had multiple runners in the other amateur race - 2/3/2/1/2/2/1/1
 
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Willie hills don't miss a trick , Ballyward into 16-1 now !. joint favourite.
 
jono said:
Yeah unlike Gigginstown who have and will run several - I can't see anymore than 2 runners for JP here and even that's a push.
Looking back over the last 8 runnings of the race he's only ever had 1 runner,

2018 - No Comment 9/1 (O'Connor)
2017 - Edwulf 5/1 (O'Connor)
2016 - Minella Rocco 8/1 (O'Connor)
2015 - Cause of Causes 8/1 (Codd)
2014 - Shutthefrontdoor 4/1 (Carberry)
2013 - no runner
2012 - no runner
2011 - no runner

All fairly fancied at single figure odds and with a top jockey onboard. I can't off the top of my head think who else they had for each year (as in who they had to shuffle the pack for RSA/JLT/handicaps etc) but that suggests they are happy to go with one shot in the race with the best amateur onboard rather than stack the field with other ameteurs?

I'd be very surprised if Jerrysback went for the Plate over 2m5 but I could see the thinking behind him going for the Ultima - on the basis for me we'll see the best of him over 3 miles plus so if they wait until the festival without trying 3 miles - he may be fairly well handicapped just for the step up in trip. Definitely think he's a 150+ horse over staying chases.

Next runs for a lot of these JP horses will be interesting

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just had a look at JP's runners in the Kim Muir in that same time period:

2018 - Squauateur 5/1 (Codd) & Pendra 14/1 (O'Connor)
2017 - Edwulf 16/1 (O'Connor) & Another Hero 9/1 (John J O'Neill) & Squauateur 5/1 (Codd)
2016 - Cause of Causes 9/2 (Codd) & Upswing 8/1 (O'Connor)
2015 - Tap Night 2 (Mangan)
2014 - Cause of Causes 13/2 (Carberry) & Lost Glory 50/1 (Walton)
2013 - Alfie Sherrin 9/1 (Berry) & Prince of Pirates 14/1 (de Boinville)
2012 - SunnyhillBoy 13/2 (Berry)
2011 - Can't Buy Time 18/1 (Berry)

So they have had multiple runners in the other amateur race - 2/3/2/1/2/2/1/1
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Yep
Probably mainly down to the Codd/Elliott factor
Which brings Glenloe into the mix (once sighted)
 
If JP had the choice, would he rather win the 4 miler or the RSA?

A lot of trainers/owners may favour the "more prestigious" race, and he may want his "best staying chaser" as the ride for his retained rider...

but is there an angle his very best chance would be to win this race, and he effectively has a retained rider in the amateur race anyway?

Ok Corral is probably the best of them all now? Throw Jerrysback into the RSA, then others for the handicaps?
 
Kevloaf said:
If JP had the choice, would he rather win the 4 miler or the RSA?

A lot of trainers/owners may favour the "more prestigious" race, and he may want his "best staying chaser" as the ride for his retained rider...

but is there an angle his very best chance would be to win this race, and he effectively has a retained rider in the amateur race anyway?

Ok Corral is probably the best of them all now? Throw Jerrysback into the RSA, then others for the handicaps?
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I'd imagine Barry will have his say on the matter.
 
quevega said:
I'd imagine Barry will have his say on the matter.
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I'm sure he would have a say, and he probably has some sway, but I wouldn't go over board on how much it's worth.

I might actually look in to his rides since taking the JP job actually.

Will take some time though (and probably come up with no patterns anyway, but I'll do it).

I imagine he's still close to Henderson's yard, they may be able to talk Barry into not riding Ok Corral in to 2nd place for the good of the yard etc?
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm sure he would have a say, and he probably has some sway, but I wouldn't go over board on how much it's worth.

I might actually look in to his rides since taking the JP job actually.

Will take some time though (and probably come up with no patterns anyway, but I'll do it).

I imagine he's still close to Henderson's yard, they may be able to talk Barry into not riding Ok Corral in to 2nd place for the good of the yard etc?
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Yep, JP and Barry got some serious juggling to do this year as he has several novice hurdlers and chasers with form and potential.
 
On the basis that the RSA looks potentially one of the strongest races of the festival, will JP have a runner in the RSA? Are we making the mistake of thinking he'll definately have one? I think it's likely based on his options but is he one just to have a runner in a race for the sake of it especially if they didn't hold a strong chance? In the last 8 season's he's only had 3 runners in the RSA - More of That (2016) If In Doubt (2015) and Carlingford Lough (2014).
 
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