Mares Novice Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

Chante neige
That's a top class race. As you'll see with lamarckise who ran in a simular one. Stormy Ireland has done more than laurina, atleast she went over to auteuil and took on the boys in the best of her generation.

Laurina
She came from maccaire for €105,000 ready made. won 3 easy races at odds on And now she's 3/1 For a CH.

....but you do know Laurina would beat Stormy Island in any race that they ever ran in right?

If you don't, surely Stormy Island at 14/1 becomes MAX bet material if Laurina is 5/1 in the same race... and is shorter in a Champion Hurdle




I'm not arguing the race may work out to be top class (although I am a bit, as Stormy Island isn't top class) and neiother is anything in behind her.

AND she didn't win it.

Point being Chante Neige doesn't have OBVIOUS form to say she's top class? You may think it's top class, but it's not obvious.

 

[Scooby91]

....but you do know Laurina would beat Stormy Island in any race that they ever ran in right?

If you don't, surely Stormy Island at 14/1 becomes MAX bet material if Laurina is 5/1 in the same race... and is shorter in a Champion Hurdle




I'm not arguing the race may work out to be top class (although I am a bit, as Stormy Island isn't top class) and neiother is anything in behind her.

AND she didn't win it.

Point being Chante Neige doesn't have OBVIOUS form to say she's top class? You may think it's top class, but it's not obvious.

There's no argument there. Your going on hype alone. Laurina hasn't done more than stormy Ireland. It's factual.

It's obvious enough if you watch the French racing and know all the races. You don't need to be top class to win this. Just decent, and she's above that. she comes along in January wins odds on. Goes 4/1 . Then she'll be evens by the Thursday.

 

[Kevloaf]

There's no argument there. Your going on hype alone. Laurina hasn't done more than stormy Ireland. It's factual.

Hype Alone?

Ratings have it covered as well....

Laurina OR 152
Stormy Island OR 145

Laurina RPR 154
Stormy Island RPR 142

Official Ratings - Tick
Racing Post Ratings - Tick

Not got access to Timeform but I could guess.....

so it isn't factual.

Your stance is based on Lackaneen Leader...

It's just nonsense. Stormy Ireland isn't as good as Laurina. If anything is factual, that is it.

 

[Scooby91]

Hype Alone?

Ratings have it covered as well....

Laurina OR 152
Stormy Island OR 145

Laurina RPR 154
Stormy Island RPR 142

Official Ratings - Tick
Racing Post Ratings - Tick

Not got access to Timeform but I could guess.....

so it isn't factual.

Your stance is based on Lackaneen Leader...

It's just nonsense. Stormy Ireland isn't as good as Laurina. If anything is factual, that is it.

It is factual. Stormy Ireland went to auteuil and took on the best of her generation. She did the same at chelt in the triumph.

Laurina still has faced absolutely nothing, her rating is based on the distance she's won by.


An area level athlete could go down the park and race an average man and win by 40 meters looking around at ease. He's not then 3/1 to win the gold at the olympics .

Anyone who's backed laurina with 365 at double figures and not cashed out for a decent profit. at a later date should look back in reflection and be dissapointed in themselves.

 

[Kevloaf]

It is factual. Stormy Ireland went to auteuil and took on the best of her generation. She did the same at chelt in the triumph.

Laurina still has faced absolutely nothing, her rating is based on the distance she's won by.


An area level athlete could go down the park and race an average man and win by 40 meters looking around at ease. He's not then 3/1 to win the gold at the olympics .

Anyone who's backed laurina with 365 at double figures and not cashed out for a decent profit. at a later date should look back in reflection and be dissapointed in themselves.

There is no proof to your side of the arguement though scooby.

Laurina could have won the races Stormy Ireland won.... or competed against the boys and been beaten as well.... that doesn't prove Stormy Ireland is better than Laurina.


I'd be taking that 14/1 in the Mares race for Stormy Ireland is she's better than Laurina rather than worrying about my cash out profits

 

[Scooby91]

There is no proof to your side of the arguement though scooby.

Laurina could have won the races Stormy Ireland won.... or competed against the boys and been beaten as well.... that doesn't prove Stormy Ireland is better than Laurina.

I havent once said shes better. I said shes done more.
I also said there's no evidence to prove that laurina is miles better than stormy Ireland. Which there isn't

 

[Kevloaf]

I havent once said shes better. I said shes done more.
I also said there's no evidence to prove that laurina is miles better than stormy Ireland. Which there isn't

You'd take the ratings as evidence until they meet, and I hope they do. I genuinly think they'd use Stormy Ireland as a pacemaker :highly_amused:


IF I ran in the 100 metre final at the Olympics, and get beaten in to last (which is only a 4/6 shot as I'm rapid) but if that happened, would I be able to say I've done than the fella at his local track putting in impressive 100 metre runs just not at the Olympics, just at his local athletics track?

In that analogy, the Cheltenham Festival, where local fella is wins by 18 lengths on the bridle, isn't worth diddly squat?

 

[Scooby91]

You'd take the ratings as evidence until they meet, and I hope they do. I genuinly think they'd use Stormy Ireland as a pacemaker :highly_amused:


IF I ran in the 100 metre final at the Olympics, and get beaten in to last (which is only a 4/6 shot as I'm rapid) but if that happened, would I be able to say I've done than the fella at his local track putting in impressive 100 metre runs just not at the Olympics, just at his local athletics track?

In that analogy, the Cheltenham Festival, where local fella is wins by 18 lengths on the bridle, isn't worth diddly squat?

Her mares novice win means nothing in context to the CH.
Honestly I'd taken the profit and run.

Good luck to any one who fancies her and has live bets on her. I just don't see it. The gap is far too wide. And being trained by mullins alone dosent mean she can beat buveur dair.

 

[Kevloaf]

Her mares novice win means nothing in context to the CH.

I don't disagree with that at all.

And being trained by mullins alone dosent mean she can beat buveur dair.

or that....

...and I imagine I will take the profit, but no need to rush. Her price is going absolutely nowhere until she next runs, and if Buveur D'air picks up and injury or flops (as if) then I'd prefer to have it live still. Slim chance.

I could even put the profit on to Buveur D'air closer to the time which I wouldn't bother with now.

 

[Scooby91]

I don't disagree with that at all.



or that....

...and I imagine I will take the profit, but no need to rush. Her price is going absolutely nowhere until she next runs, and if Buveur D'air picks up and injury or flops (as if) then I'd prefer to have it live still. Slim chance.

I could even put the profit on to Buveur D'air closer to the time which I wouldn't bother with now.

Worth noting that Annie power was 9/2 On the day.
And that's with faugheen the 1/4 antepost fav out injured.

Laurina is no annie power. And buveur dair is still right there

Worst betting race of the festival by far at current odds. They'll all be bigger on the day.

 

[jack1092]

Worth noting that Annie power was 9/2 On the day.
And that's with faugheen the 1/4 antepost fav out injured.

Laurina is no annie power. And buveur dair is still right there

Worst betting race of the festival by far at current odds. They'll all be bigger on the day.

No disagreement with your point on the odds or her current chances in a Champion considering she hasn't been tested in open company.

Balance of probabilities suggests she is no Annie Power, but there is nothing Laurina has done to this day to say she isn't as good as Annie Power. Bit harsh to knock her this much already in my opinion. It's essentially guessing.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

It is factual. Stormy Ireland went to auteuil and took on the best of her generation. She did the same at chelt in the triumph.

Laurina still has faced absolutely nothing, her rating is based on the distance she's won by.


An area level athlete could go down the park and race an average man and win by 40 meters looking around at ease. He's not then 3/1 to win the gold at the olympics .

Anyone who's backed laurina with 365 at double figures and not cashed out for a decent profit. at a later date should look back in reflection and be dissapointed in themselves.

The profit is only double stake back. I'd rather let it ride TBH.

IMO she has <5% chance of beating BOD, but he's got to get there as well

 

[Scooby91]

The profit is only double stake back. I'd rather let it ride TBH.

IMO she has <5% chance of beating BOD, but he's got to get there as well

Is that all it is at 14/1? Now 3/1
Double your money.

In that case I apologise. And it's a closer call


250 total stake on brain power at 50/1 now 10/1
Was 974 return to cash out

 

[Quevega]

Is that all it is at 14/1? Now 3/1
Double your money.

In that case I apologise. And it's a closer call


250 total stake on brain power at 50/1 now 10/1
Was 974 return to cash out

That don't make sense to me. paying out at those odds

 

[KingSprinterSacre]

Is that all it is at 14/1? Now 3/1
Double your money.

In that case I apologise. And it's a closer call


250 total stake on brain power at 50/1 now 10/1
Was 974 return to cash out

You may get on the look out for another 365 account soon scoobs lol.
Super work though

 

[Kevloaf]

Salsaretta is probably not one for the Sky Bet Supreme or the two mile division, she might want intermediate trips, and will run at Limerick on December 26. She ran in some top races last season and we deliberately retained her novice status for this campaign. We're looking forward to a good year with her all things being equal. - Joe Chambers


Not good news for Salsaretta with this race in mind.

 

[SeanRock]

Anyone heard anything about Daphne Du Clos?

 

[Hurricane fly]

I’d still expect Salsaretta to come here rather than the ballymore for example due to a)Mullins hand in the other novice races and b)it will still be the easier race to win

 

[Kevloaf]

I’d still expect Salsaretta to come here rather than the ballymore for example due to a)Mullins hand in the other novice races and b)it will still be the easier race to win

Likely to have better chances to win the Mares Novice Hurdle race than her though?

We'll see how she shapes over 2m4f on Boxing Day.

Even money fav versus Felix Desjy so she'd need to be winning that either way.

 

[Hurricane fly]

He is likely to have better options (I’m hoping that’s Chante Neige) but Tornado Flyer and Carefully Selected are likely to be in the top 3 of the betting for the ballymore/AB.

Would like to think she will beat Felix Desjy but as you say she would need to to have a chance in any race