Mares Hurdle 2019

[Scooby91]

Maybe I am being too sentimental as I love SI anyway, I was a keen backer of her last season in the Triumph () but was so happy she got up that day. Fingers crossed she can go on to better things this time around

That Auteuil form puts her right in this though.

And her form with good thyne tara this season. Where she's absolutely hosed up. Her last run was very good . Just beaten by a superior horse. With saglawy once again well beaten by her. This is a drop in grade for her in all but name

 

[jack1092]

Yeah, point 4 is in the bin COD i would suspect as Scooby says.

Also, your point on gaining an easy win for his powerful owner, and Laurina going to the CH. I would argue quite easily that Ricci won't be overlooked by Mullins.....He doesn't have many horses looking like surefire winners, and BDD probably sits as the likeliest. .

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah, point 4 is in the bin COD i would suspect as Scooby says.

Also, your point on gaining an easy win for his powerful owner, and Laurina going to the CH. I would argue quite easily that Ricci won't be overlooked by Mullins.....He doesn't have many horses looking like surefire winners, and BDD probably sits as the likeliest. .

You can chuck them all in the bin if you don't agree with them I'll still be going ahead with my bet


As I said Jack, they were my thoughts from overthinking, a dangerous thing to do, in no way would I assume WPM would choose Sullivan or Ricci over any other owner, but I put them out there on the forum anyway

Oh, and Min is his best chance in the Ryanair

 

[Scooby91]

You can chuck them all in the bin if you don't agree with them I'll still be going ahead with my bet


As I said Jack, they were my thoughts from overthinking, a dangerous thing to do, in no way would I assume WPM would choose Sullivan or Ricci over any other owner, but I put them out there on the forum anyway

Oh, and Min is his best chance in the Ryanair

You might have over thinked it but i deffinately think you've come out with the right angle. Rheres nothing to say she isnt better than BDD. She's a huge chance imo.

Iv treated this race as I normally would do the CH. When the opportunity arose. I'd normally throw a couple of ew darts at the mares and go all in on the CH. But very different this year. Iv done the complete opposite.

 

[Kevloaf]

....Gary Nutting’s selection for this on the ATR website.

Post the link, or I will when I'm home.

He's got a negative ante post Cheltenham record for the last 3 seasons but I think he does well through the year usually.

 

[Eggs]

Post the link, or I will when I'm home.

He's got a negative ante post Cheltenham record for the last 3 seasons but I think he does well through the year usually.

....yep, he seems to de well with his ante-posts for the big races. I remember him selecting Ballabrigs @ 33-1 for the National a few years ago but I don’t think he’s highly rated on here. Saying that, the Festival selections are shared with Kevin Blake;


http://cheltenham.attheraces.com/tips-and-tools/long-range-forecast

 

[Kevloaf]

The angle is that Stormy Ireland is infact better than Laurina and Mullins is hiding this from everyone so SI can win the Mares?

Jeez I'm glad racing is back on tomorrow.

If you don't believe Laurina would beat Stormy Ireland then you're just a slave to the form book? You have to factor in more than what we've literally seen?

FWIW the bet on Stormy Ireland is decent, you've just lost me getting there :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The angle is that Stormy Ireland is infact better than Laurina and Mullins is hiding this from everyone so SI can win the Mares?

Jeez I'm glad racing is back on tomorrow.

If you don't believe Laurina would beat Stormy Ireland then you're just a slave to the form book? You have to factor in more than what we've literally seen?

FWIW the bet on Stormy Ireland is decent, you've just lost me getting there :highly_amused:

Form is all we have, no?

Potential to be better than Stormy Ireland, that I have absolutely no doubt about, think I was the most bullish person on here regarding Laurina's potential last season when others couldn't see it, so don't think I am backing down on how good a horse I view Laurina as.

I think the point I am trying to make is we have been so blinded by Laurina's potential and her inclusion in the Champion Hurdle, which, with Apples Jade now in the mix has become one of the hardest Champion Hurdles in recent years, that a horse who would have likely run away with the Mares' Novice like she did last season too has been overlooked for an easier race than what Laurina is going to run in, and double the price!

 

[jack1092]

You can chuck them all in the bin if you don't agree with them I'll still be going ahead with my bet


As I said Jack, they were my thoughts from overthinking, a dangerous thing to do, in no way would I assume WPM would choose Sullivan or Ricci over any other owner, but I put them out there on the forum anyway

Oh, and Min is his best chance in the Ryanair

Sorry Cod, i was only using a phrase haha,

His best chance might not even run in the Ryanair then haha!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Sorry Cod, i was only using a phrase haha,

His best chance might not even run in the Ryanair then haha!

Haha I was only messing anyway

Yeah, is the worry of course, strange if he went QMCC, who wants to stare at Altior's backside for a third time? I wouldn't :highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

Form is all we have, no?

Form is all we have? No!

I do remember you being bullish regarding Laurina, as far as saying she'll be better than Annie Power... but that backs up my point ... that form is NOT all we have to go on? Potential, connections, ground, stable form, jockey form, blah blah blah etc etc etc are all factors in placing a betIf you only ever placed a bet on the horse with the best form in the book, it'd be impossible for you to have backed Laurina last season?

I think the point I am trying to make is we have been so blinded by Laurina's potential and her inclusion in the Champion Hurdle, which, with Apples Jade now in the mix has become one of the hardest Champion Hurdles in recent years, that a horse who would have likely run away with the Mares' Novice like she did last season too has been overlooked for an easier race than what Laurina is going to run in, and double the price!

I see - personally I do not think Stormy Ireland could have won the Mares Novice as easily as Laurina did, because I have faith athat connections are right, that Laurina is just a better Mare.

Effectively, she's double the price of Laurina, because Laurina is a better horse than her.



None of this stops Stormy Ireland being a decent horse in her own right... but you seem to be saying Stormy Ireland and Laurina are equals, therefore SI is value, and that isn't the case, is it?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Form is all we have? No!

I do remember you being bullish regarding Laurina, as far as saying she'll be better than Annie Power... but that backs up my point ... that form is NOT all we have to go on? Potential, connections, ground, stable form, jockey form, blah blah blah etc etc etc are all factors in placing a betIf you only ever placed a bet on the horse with the best form in the book, it'd be impossible for you to have backed Laurina last season?



I see - personally I do not think Stormy Ireland could have won the Mares Novice as easily as Laurina did, because I have faith athat connections are right, that Laurina is just a better Mare.

Effectively, she's double the price of Laurina, because Laurina is a better horse than her.



None of this stops Stormy Ireland being a decent horse in her own right... but you seem to be saying Stormy Ireland and Laurina are equals, therefore SI is value, and that isn't the case, is it?

My Laurina talk last season was ALL based on potential and the small amount of form we had to go one, not ground, trainer or jockey form, them 3 factors are absolutely irrelevant for any ante post bet I place. Connections and potential are usually only factored in for novices, which are generally a lesser known quantity, by myself.

I'm pretty sure what I am saying is that on form, as Scooby has rightly noted previously, Stormy Ireland is the better horse, potential is another story altogether though. I still think Laurina has the potential to reach the very top, do I think it will be this season, no!

At the end of the day I have backed my opinion on both (backed Stormy Ireland for this, and backed against Laurina in the Champion Hurdle), and that's all I can do.

 

[Quevega]

My Laurina talk last season was ALL based on potential and the small amount of form we had to go one, not ground, trainer or jockey form, them 3 factors are absolutely irrelevant for any ante post bet I place. Connections and potential are usually only factored in for novices, which are generally a lesser known quantity, by myself.

I'm pretty sure what I am saying is that on form, as Scooby has rightly noted previously, Stormy Ireland is the better horse, potential is another story altogether though. I still think Laurina has the potential to reach the very top, do I think it will be this season, no!

At the end of the day I have backed my opinion on both (backed Stormy Ireland for this, and backed against Laurina in the Champion Hurdle), and that's all I can do.

In a handicap. Laurina would give SI 10lb. And win IMO
Should scooby and youself be the new chief handicappers ?
Why do you think Laurina will get to the top, but not this year ?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

In a handicap. Laurina would give SI 10lb. And win IMO
Should scooby and youself be the new chief handicappers ?
Why do you think Laurina will get to the top, but not this year ?

I think as a mare taking your first steps out of novice company to play with the big boys and current best mare in training, in the hardest 2m hurdle race of the season, on only her second start of the season is a ridiculous task, so much so that if she achieves it she will automatically be catapulted as better than Annie Power by myself, thus proving one point I made last season in the process, but quite frankly I just don't see it happening. This Champion Hurdle is by far the hardest, with the potential line up, in a fair while.

I don't think you are grasping the whole Stormy Ireland / Laurina comparison still, Stormy Ireland has better form IN THE BOOK, Laurina has the most POTENTIAL, would I back Laurina against Stormy Ireland, yes, do I think either have any chance in the Champion Hurdle, no, but I sure as hell have both of them winning the mares hurdle on the basis Apples Jade goes for the CH.

Because of my blinded love for Laurina :highly_amused: I was actually against what Scooby was saying about Laurina, but just check the form out, honestly, the horses she has beat in the manner she has done it you'd expect the top 10 in the Champion Hurdle betting to do exactly the same.

 

[Kevloaf]

My Laurina talk last season was ALL based on potential and the small amount of form we had to go one, not ground, trainer or jockey form, them 3 factors are absolutely irrelevant for any ante post bet I place. Connections and potential are usually only factored in for novices, which are generally a lesser known quantity, by myself.

I'm pretty sure what I am saying is that on form, as Scooby has rightly noted previously, Stormy Ireland is the better horse, potential is another story altogether though. I still think Laurina has the potential to reach the very top, do I think it will be this season, no!

At the end of the day I have backed my opinion on both (backed Stormy Ireland for this, and backed against Laurina in the Champion Hurdle), and that's all I can do.

Laurina switches from being a novice last year, has 1 win this year, and wins by 50 odd lengths, and all of a sudden you no longer would back her based on potential as she's not a novice?



What I'm not getting, is that because you think Stormy Ireland has better form (as scooby points out) that she'd beat Laurina? You don't really believe that do you/ You'd genuinly back SI against Laurina if they were in a match at evens?

The 3 factors I mentioned are just factors, point being, you don't JUST use the form we've seen.....!

 

[Kevloaf]

I think as a mare taking your first steps out of novice company to play with the big boys and current best mare in training, in the hardest 2m hurdle race of the season, on only her second start of the season is a ridiculous task, so much so that if she achieves it she will automatically be catapulted as better than Annie Power by myself, thus proving one point I made last season in the process, but quite frankly I just don't see it happening. This Champion Hurdle is by far the hardest, with the potential line up, in a fair while.

I don't think you are grasping the whole Stormy Ireland / Laurina comparison still, Stormy Ireland has better form IN THE BOOK, Laurina has the most POTENTIAL, would I back Laurina against Stormy Ireland, yes, do I think either have any chance in the Champion Hurdle, no, but I sure as hell have both of them winning the mares hurdle on the basis Apples Jade goes for the CH.

Because of my blinded love for Laurina :highly_amused: I was actually against what Scooby was saying about Laurina, but just check the form out, honestly, the horses she has beat in the manner she has done it you'd expect the top 10 in the Champion Hurdle betting to do exactly the same.

I think I'm getting confused because of the bold statement that Stormy Ireland should be shorter for the Mares than she is because she has the same form as Laurina... (if that is what you implied?)

She should NOT be as short for the Mares as Laurina was, because despite having the best form, we all know Laurina is a better horse.

Whether Laurina wins the CH or not is not the point?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Laurina switches from being a novice last year, has 1 win this year, and wins by 50 odd lengths, and all of a sudden you no longer would back her based on potential as she's not a novice?



What I'm not getting, is that because you think Stormy Ireland has better form (as scooby points out) that she'd beat Laurina? You don't really believe that do you/ You'd genuinly back SI against Laurina if they were in a match at evens?

The 3 factors I mentioned are just factors, point being, you don't JUST use the form we've seen.....!

I wouldn't back her for the hardest 2m hurdle race of the season, hardly a major surprise really, is it? If she went Mares I'd back her, and I'd back her over Stormy Ireland too, based on that potential, and not the form book.

And I haven't said I'd back Stormy Ireland over Laurina, I said the form for Stormy Ireland puts her ahead of Laurina currently, I've also said in the post after that I'd back Laurina over Stormy Ireland based on potential, but we know Laurina is going CH and SI likely the Mares, so debating them meeting is likely irrelevant.

 

[Kevloaf]

I wouldn't back her for the hardest 2m hurdle race of the season, hardly a major surprise really, is it? If she went Mares I'd back her, and I'd back her over Stormy Ireland too, based on that potential, and not the form book.

And I haven't said I'd back Stormy Ireland over Laurina, I said the form for Stormy Ireland puts her ahead of Laurina currently, I've also said in the post after that I'd back Laurina over Stormy Ireland based on potential, but we know Laurina is going CH and SI likely the Mares, so debating them meeting is likely irrelevant.

Riiiight... I'm with you now.

All cleared up, I agree and see what you're saying :encouragement:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I think I'm getting confused because of the bold statement that Stormy Ireland should be shorter for the Mares than she is because she has the same form as Laurina... (if that is what you implied?)

She should NOT be as short for the Mares as Laurina was, because despite having the best form, we all know Laurina is a better horse.

Whether Laurina wins the CH or not is not the point?

I think SI is overpriced for the Mares, because, as it stands, we know both Laurina & Apples Jade are going to the CH. If either of them turn up for the Mares then I would say she is around the right price, but that's not what we are being led to believe right now.

 

[TigerRolllllll]

I think as a mare taking your first steps out of novice company to play with the big boys and current best mare in training, in the hardest 2m hurdle race of the season, on only her second start of the season is a ridiculous task, so much so that if she achieves it she will automatically be catapulted as better than Annie Power by myself, thus proving one point I made last season in the process, but quite frankly I just don't see it happening. This Champion Hurdle is by far the hardest, with the potential line up, in a fair while.

I don't think you are grasping the whole Stormy Ireland / Laurina comparison still, Stormy Ireland has better form IN THE BOOK, Laurina has the most POTENTIAL, would I back Laurina against Stormy Ireland, yes, do I think either have any chance in the Champion Hurdle, no, but I sure as hell have both of them winning the mares hurdle on the basis Apples Jade goes for the CH.

Because of my blinded love for Laurina :highly_amused: I was actually against what Scooby was saying about Laurina, but just check the form out, honestly, the horses she has beat in the manner she has done it you'd expect the top 10 in the Champion Hurdle betting to do exactly the same.

Laurina has run a PRP of 160 and others just below....Stormy Ireland best is 142....so form in the book says Laurina could give SI a stone and win on the bridle.....might not beat AJ and BD....but even i could ride her to beat SI