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Mares Hurdle 2019

If we assume Apple's Jade wasn't at her best last year (which looks painfuly obvious) is Benie Des Dieux's form as good as it looks?

0.5L over Midnight Tour
3L over Augusta Kate
2.5L over Asthuria


Then again, she ain't uup against anything but average Mares again so fair enough :)
 
2.5l over an average mare, but over a trip too short and giving weight.

3l over IMO, a pretty good race mare in Augusta Kate

The Cheltenham run probably the least impressive.

Of course AJ was below par, but what's there in there right now? Elimay perhaps?
 
Kevloaf said:
If we assume Apple's Jade wasn't at her best last year (which looks painfuly obvious) is Benie Des Dieux's form as good as it looks?

0.5L over Midnight Tour
3L over Augusta Kate
2.5L over Asthuria


Then again, she ain't uup against anything but average Mares again so fair enough :)
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That was my view thinking over it tonight. Clearly you have to take AJ out of the 2 Spring races last season. It wasn't her.
Benies beating of Apples Jade was what made her form and status look so strong? Taking AJ out of the equation does she warrant what i'm debating her to be now as a banker in this if Apples Jade and Laurina go CH

The form when looking at it this way is rubbish. BUT it's then a case of do you rate the crop of challengers in it this year as a) better and b) then good enough to win?

La Bague AU Roi
Jers Girl
Kayf Grace
Pravalguna
Midnight Tour
Indian Stream
Midnight Jazz

vs potentially

Limini
Stormy Ireland
Roksana
Mias Storm
Alimay
Good Thyme Tara
Lady Buttons
Momella
 
Can Willie Mullins prepare a Mare for this race without a run all season though?
 
Probably...

the 9/4 is fair enough NRNB isn't it.

The 'pain' will Laurina drafting in, but I don't think BDD will be bigger than 9/4 - but will be around even if AJ and Laurina miss the race.
 
Kevloaf said:
If we assume Apple's Jade wasn't at her best last year (which looks painfuly obvious) is Benie Des Dieux's form as good as it looks?

0.5L over Midnight Tour
3L over Augusta Kate
2.5L over Asthuria


Then again, she ain't uup against anything but average Mares again so fair enough :)
Click to expand...

AJ’s form up to last years Fez was very good, leading to her going off a very short banker for many. I know the excuse was her being in season but is it possible that Cheltenham doesn’t bring out the best in her. She got beat in a Triumph that she probably should have won and her Mares win against VVM & Limini, whilst looking good at the time, doesn’t look quite so impressive with hindsight.
 
Morley Street said:
AJ’s form up to last years Fez was very good, leading to her going off a very short banker for many. I know the excuse was her being in season but is it possible that Cheltenham doesn’t bring out the best in her. She got beat in a Triumph that she probably should have won and her Mares win against VVM & Limini, whilst looking good at the time, doesn’t look quite so impressive with hindsight.
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I would be strongly of the opinion she's a better horse now as a 7 year old though MS.

The Triumph as a 4 yo is an odd one, as she absolutely routed everything after that at Aintree and Punches... but I don't think it's the track that beat her.

As a 5yo she managed to win G1's including beating Vroum, Vroum Mag and Limini which was a very impressive at the time, but she'd leave them for dead now, she's just a much better Mare!

Last season the excuses just have to be valid, and again, it wasn't Cheltenham that beat her...

This year she's the best hurdler around, would Benie Des Dieux be able to beat Supasunade 20L and 16L? No chance

and when you say her form last season was good going into Chelt, using Supasunade, she only beat him 0.5L (albeit a different trip) so either AJ has improved, Supasunade regressed or somewhere in between..... BUTR Supasunade looks to be holding his form.... so I think AJ is way ahead this year of anything she's done before.
 
Mullins is also weighing up the options for Champion Hurdle hope*Laurina, who was a wide-margin winner at Sandown last month on what has been her only start this term.

The Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran and the Quevega Mares Hurdle at Punchestown on February 20 could come under consideration, although Mullins would favour the second event at present.

He said: “Laurina has Punchestown and Gowran as options for a run. Punchestown would be the preferred option at the minute and has been a lucky race for me and sits nicely.

“I’m not really worried about getting a run into her. We probably will, but I’m very happy to go there (to Cheltenham) without another run.

“I’d imagine she will go for the Champion Hurdle. Connections want to go there and I’m happy to go there unless something happens in the meantime.”

Mullins is leaning towards an outing at Gowran for*Benie Des Dieux*ahead of her Cheltenham date next month.

He added: “Benie Des Dieux will probably run in Gowran or Punchestown. She’ll probably go to Gowran and the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham is her target for the year.”
 
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Stormy Ireland has a huge chance in this imo she's settled much better this year and stuck on well at auteuil in a very strong race.
Elimay should come on for her first run in a long time, and you'd have to assume JP would want her here, he Paid a fortune for her and her French form reads very well.
Good thyne tara wants decent ground, she's a good admirable horse that gives her all. If the others don't perform shed be entitled to pick up the pieces
Limini would like a bit of cut , and to go in there fresh, she's a good horse at this level.
Bennie des Dieux looks to be the standard bearer and stays very well.

With Apple's jade and laurina both set not to run.
all the above are different owners apart from the ricci 2. And All have valid claims to go close here. Will be interesting to see how many he throws at it . As i can't rule any of them out myself.
Add to that even a place in the race is a very valuable race to have on your page as a broodmare, and they're all entitled to feel they can be placed in an open year. I'd be suprised if all the owners wouldnt want to go there for that reason.
 
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Morley Street said:
AJ’s form up to last years Fez was very good, leading to her going off a very short banker for many. I know the excuse was her being in season but is it possible that Cheltenham doesn’t bring out the best in her. She got beat in a Triumph that she probably should have won and her Mares win against VVM & Limini, whilst looking good at the time, doesn’t look quite so impressive with hindsight.
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I toyed with this idea for a while earlier in the year as looking at the bare results I thought that too. However...

2016
She improved SO much from the Triumph to both Aintree and Punchestown. It's a wonder how she didn't win that race...

BUT it's clear now she improves for her racing. 4 of her 6 defeats have come after breaks of 83, 188, 80, 75 days. So i'm willing to say if she had of had a run closer to the Triumph that year, i'm sure she would have run.

2017
A 1.5 length beating of VVM and Limini, for the distances we are used to seeing her win by isn't the most impressive. It was a tough gutsy win where she really had to battle. But it's worth considering that
A) she was in her 5 year old season - a year where almost all horses who come out of their juvenile year struggle.
And B) In that year, she was at the time very closely matched with both Limini and VVM. She beat VVM narrowly at Christmas but was receiving weight. And then Limini beat her in their prep run before the festival when she came off a break. And they were both after she struggled behind both Rashaan and Irving early in the season. I think its fair to say at that moment of her career she was pretty much at the same level as both Limini and VVM. She improved markedly at Punchestown but that was a lower standard of race. You could actually say AJ shouldn't have won at the track in the Mares race in 2017 - VVM should have reversed the Hattons Grace form off levels and Limini beat her prior albeit off a break so although the performance and distances weren't the spectacular level we've become associated with, the fact she won was.

2018
(different) connections surprisingly sent her there again off a long break (though I wonder now if that was done as she may have been in season during the build up? and again a defeat but this time the 'in season' being the primary excuse. She finished behind Midnight Tour and Verdana Blue that Spring. That just doesn't happen if she is right anywhere.

So I don't buy the track not being to her liking. Jumping right handed means it won't be ideal in that sense but that has now just become a minor inefficiency without any impact
 
The reasoning behind apples jade performances at Cheltenham are all potentially valid
But it’s a fact that she’s not been at her very best their. Her best performances have been elsewhere
The champion should suit better. But the opposition is better overall.
 
You both make some very valid points chaps and don’t get me wrong, I’ve been as impressed by AJ as anyone. I’ve just got a nagging doubt that the course doesn't bring out the best in her. Fair play to anyone on at juicy prices but for this reason I can’t bring myself to play her now and if she runs the finish out of both BVD & Laurina, I’ll tip my cap to one of the greats. With regard to this race Scoob, I think you’re right that there will be a few darts thrown but I would have Benie a fair bit ahead of the rest and if she wins her prep and shows her well being think she will go very short.
 
Morley Street said:
You both make some very valid points chaps and don’t get me wrong, I’ve been as impressed by AJ as anyone. I’ve just got a nagging doubt that the course doesn't bring out the best in her. Fair play to anyone on at juicy prices but for this reason I can’t bring myself to play her now and if she runs the finish out of both BVD & Laurina, I’ll tip my cap to one of the greats. With regard to this race Scoob, I think you’re right that there will be a few darts thrown but I would have Benie a fair bit ahead of the rest and if she wins her prep and shows her well being think she will go very short.
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She'll go short no doubt. I dont have her much infront of stormy Ireland, if anything tbh. (We'll see if SI runs) but obviously im very happy if benie wins. SI would give her the gallop she wants too. I'm pretty much expecting a win and a place at the very least here . If benie is the real deal a 1-2-3 should be on the cards
 
Morley Street said:
AJ’s form up to last years Fez was very good, leading to her going off a very short banker for many. I know the excuse was her being in season but is it possible that Cheltenham doesn’t bring out the best in her. She got beat in a Triumph that she probably should have won and her Mares win against VVM & Limini, whilst looking good at the time, doesn’t look quite so impressive with hindsight.
Click to expand...

IIRC she had an interrupted prep for her Triumph year, as she hadn't run since Boxing Day before her Cheltenham run - then was fully firing for Aintree
 
Stormy Ireland has some engine, but for me over this trip at Cheltenham i wouldn't be a backer.

I can certainly see the Elimay improvement angle and she'd be the one i'd take for a place as well.
 
Just watched stormy Irelands last 4 races. She's a very good mare that's going unappreciated. she stays the trip.
Good thyne tara is a good solid 147 horse, saglawy is no mug and she's beating them with ease.
she's absolutely slamming the same horses laurina has beaten in atleast as good style.


The market is starting to agree. 8s from 20s.
 
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Scooby91 said:
Just watched stormy Irelands last 4 races. She's a very good mare that's going unappreciated. she stays the trip.
Good thyne tara is a good solid 147 horse, saglawy is no mug and she's beating them with ease.
she's absolutely slamming the same horses laurina has beaten in atleast as good style.


The market is starting to agree. 8s from 20s.
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Loved her alongside Laurina last season. Had fair amount going on her in the Triumph but that didn't end well. Can certainly see the appeal and 10's NRNB is certainly still a fair price.

Agree regarding the form too. Having not got involved too much in the race I may have to have a few pennies on her.
 
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