Champion Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

Good example here.
Stormy Ireland is no champion hurdle horse she's rated 141. But watch how she smashes up lackeneen leader tomorrow.

That's the step up that laurina faces.

Laurina would smash up Stormy Island though

 

[Scooby91]

Laurina would smash up Stormy Island though

Theres no race course evidence to say that, however My pt is how poor the opposition laurina has faced to date is. She's not faced anything that would be sighted in a CH

Watch lackeneen leader today. And see how she gets thumped compared to laurina.
Are we going to start saying stormy is a CH horse??

 

[Kevloaf]

Theres no race course evidence to say that, atleast shes taken on the boys and the best of her generation in master dino. My pt is how poor the opposition laurina has faced to date is. She's not faced anything that would be sighted in a CH

Watch lackeneen leader today. And see how she gets thumped compared to laurina.
Are we going to start saying stormy is a CH horse??

No but you have to believe the connections.

I don't have the form to say Laurina would smash Stormy Ireland, but we all know it because owner, trainer and jockeys know it.

Stormy Ireland as a pace maker in the CH? :highly_amused:

 

[Scooby91]

No but you have to believe the connections.

I don't have the form to say Laurina would smash Stormy Ireland, but we all know it because owner, trainer and jockeys know it.

Stormy Ireland as a pace maker in the CH? :highly_amused:

I haven't seen any hype comments about laurina personally in regards to a CH??
They were extremely confident as a novice mare but as we'll see today she had lackeneen leader to beat. So rhats very understandable.


Iv not heard anyone from the yard say they fancy there chances against buveur dair. Only that she needs to step up and there hopeful.

She's priced appallingly now

 

[Quevega]

Good example here.
Stormy Ireland is no champion hurdle horse she's rated 141. But watch how she smashes up lackeneen leader tomorrow.

That's the step up that laurina faces.

To describe this as a good example. When it's not even happened yet. Is, to be polite, silly.
And what if someone runs within 5 metres of stormy island today and she underperfoms, are we going to say her race was spoiled ?

Maria's benefit is always prone to over use herself and not be able to finish off her race, especially against good opposition, and that's all she did at Cheltenham. She was pulling before cut the mustard even got anywhere near her.
I accept she probably did not run to form as the above happened (she won't always run in the most economical fashion), but she wasn't spoiled (unless a horse running a few yards to her right for some of the way is spoiling tactics, I don't think she's that sensitive).

Faugheen was a better example in last years champion, unable to lead and dictate, he was taken on and then passed by a pacemaker, then as the race hotted up, Buvuer D'air came alongside and licked his face for half a furlong.

Laurina, does not have to step up in any way to the form of stormy island. But she will have to improve for sure (It does happen, especially with this set up)

Her rating is based on horses with lower ratings (no doubt), but the handicapper will have likely based this (her rating) on the horses he feels ran to there mark, then used the distance and ease of how they were beaten. That's how it works (I believe).

So stop being so stubborn and back Laurina for the champion hurdle.

 

[Scooby91]

I think you've misinterpreted what I said I'm aware good thyme tara is in there. My pt is how lackeneen leader will get smashed up and stormy Ireland is no world beater.

I'm not in anyway trying to compare stormy Ireland and laurina my point is how poor the opposition laurina has faced is. As you'll see today.

So why does that make laurina a superstar or a 5/1 chance for a CH. Its madness. And hype alone.

 

[boopa]

Laurina's dominance has been on soft or heavy. Lets see if she's as good on decent ground.

 

[Scooby91]

Laurina's dominance has been on soft or heavy. Lets see if she's as good on decent ground.

Another very valid point.

 

[Quevega]

I think you've misinterpreted what I said I'm aware good thyme tara is in there. My pt is how lackeneen leader will get smashed up and stormy Ireland is no world beater.

I'm not in anyway trying to compare stormy Ireland and laurina my point is how poor the opposition laurina has faced is. As you'll see today.

So why does that make laurina a superstar or a 5/1 chance for a CH. Its madness. And hype alone.

The price is not value (that's a given, although I'd argue it's better than Annamix's price, and probably many others also)
This is just a combination of bookies shying away and/or tempting punters in on a bit of hype.

I've no issue with you crabbing the price,
but the relative form/rating/visual impression/obvious potential is clear for anybody to see. Just has to be realised. It's not hype alone is it ?
Surely, a better example of that would be Annamix ? Who has zero form/no rating/no visual impression/potential ?

And 16-1 Laurina (referred to in previous discussions) is better value than almost any other bet in any other race, based on everything we know.

 

[Quevega]

Laurina's dominance has been on soft or heavy. Lets see if she's as good on decent ground.

You honestly think running on at worst (Good to Soft) is going to be an issue at all ?

 

[Quevega]

I think you've misinterpreted what I said I'm aware good thyme tara is in there. My pt is how lackeneen leader will get smashed up and stormy Ireland is no world beater.

I'm not in anyway trying to compare stormy Ireland and laurina my point is how poor the opposition laurina has faced is. As you'll see today.

So why does that make laurina a superstar or a 5/1 chance for a CH. Its madness. And hype alone.

I haven't misinterpreted you using an example of a race that hasn't been run. Which you sound like you've already seen.

 

[Scooby91]

The price is not value (that's a given, although I'd argue it's better than Annamix's price, and probably many others also)
This is just a combination of bookies shying away and/or tempting punters in on a bit of hype.

I've no issue with you crabbing the price,
but the relative form/rating/visual impression/obvious potential is clear for anybody to see. Just has to be realised. It's not hype alone is it ?
Surely, a better example of that would be Annamix ? Who has zero form/no rating/no visual impression/potential ?

And 16-1 Laurina (referred to in previous discussions) is better value than almost any other bet in any other race, based on everything we know.

I get your point, but The 2 races, the supreme and the CH are miles apart. Luckily Annamix dosent have buveur dair to face.


I just see the difference in class between lackeneen leader and facing buveur dair as an unbelievable step up in class.

Its like a maiden winner hosing up by 12L as a 3yo against exposed horses and then being put in the QE11 at 5/1 against the english and irish guineas winners. People could hype up the style of victory all they wanted but there's not a chance I'd back the horse. All be it not impossible they could win.

 

[Scooby91]

I haven't misinterpreted you using an example of a race that hasn't been run. Which you sound like you've already seen.

Very fair point
I've visualised the race, seems clear enough what will happen to me. All be it iv jumped the gun..

 

[Quevega]

Very fair point
I've visualised the race, seems clear enough what will happen to me. All be it iv jumped the gun..

let's hope it goes to plan, so this conversation makes sense. Feel like it's Sunday already.

 

[Quevega]

I get your point, but The 2 races, the supreme and the CH are miles apart. Luckily Annamix dosent have buveur dair to face.


I just see the difference in class between lackeneen leader and facing buveur dair as an unbelievable step up in class.

Its like a maiden winner hosing up by 12L as a 3yo against exposed horses and then being put in the QE11 at 5/1 against the english and irish guineas winners. People could hype up the style of victory all they wanted but there's not a chance I'd back the horse. All be it not impossible they could win.

Annamix doesn't have to face Buvuer D'air (one horse) and maybe a couple of other realistic contenders (i.e champion hurdle).
She's any number of potentially good/great novices that no one's seen run much.

20-1 Annamix ? never been seen vs dozens of other potentially good novices.
16-1 Laurina (clear potential, possibly more than any other horse in training) vs 1 clear stand out horse, a stablemate (and two or three other horses with potential)

 

[JackieMoon33]

I have no vested interest in this race but I would say that trying to put a rating on Laurina based on her performances so far is impossible, even for the professionals. Yes she has only beaten some average horses but she’s done it whilst barely breaking sweat. How many more gears she has, no one will know until she’s had a proper race and that will come this season. She may actually not find too much more when asked but she could also have another two or three gears left. On form she’s no 5/1 shot but on what she could be, I can see why the bookies are not taking any chances now her target is confirmed.

 

[Quevega]

I have no vested interest in this race but I would say that trying to put a rating on Laurina based on her performances so far is impossible, even for the professionals. Yes she has only beaten some average horses but she’s done it whilst barely breaking sweat. How many more gears she has, no one will know until she’s had a proper race and that will come this season. She may actually not find too much more when asked but she could also have another two or three gears left. On form she’s no 5/1 shot but on what she could be, I can see why the bookies are not taking any chances now her target is confirmed.

Good summing up, although I'd say difficult, rather than impossible.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Laurina's dominance has been on soft or heavy. Lets see if she's as good on decent ground.

She could improve for it! Unlike Summerville Boy who looks as though he needs heavy to keep up.

We could make a list for quite a few at the festival from last season with regards to ground tbf.

I love both Stormy Ireland & Laurina but ultimately Laurina is top of the pile of the two. You only need to see the way connections talk about her to know that.

With regards to the price, she was not always this short, and this is now 'justified' as fair by the bookmakers given the Samcro defeat and increased likelihood of Laurina coming here as advertised by connections.

I would expect Stormy Ireland to beat Lackaneen Leader today so the form line would not mean much to me in the way of weighing up how good Laurina is.

 

[boopa]

Of course she could. It's still an unknown as we have no real evidence to go on.

 

[Kevloaf]

I haven't seen any hype comments about laurina personally in regards to a CH??
They were extremely confident as a novice mare but as we'll see today she had lackeneen leader to beat. So rhats very understandable.


Iv not heard anyone from the yard say they fancy there chances against buveur dair. Only that she needs to step up and there hopeful.

She's priced appallingly now

The owner has said they're aiming her towards the champion hurdle.

The trainer has said they're looking at a champion hurdle campaign.

They are NOT saying that about Stormy Island.

I'm not being clever, that's in plain text in the media