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Handicap Shortlist - Cheltenham 2020

Faugheen_Machine said:
It was 33/1 - another I've missed the price on.

I'm starting to think we need to lock this site down. Surely a dozen or so of us on here aren't moving the markets.
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It's becoming a problem IMO. I won't be recording my bets on here at all next season. Probably won't even post much from now until the festival either, already slowed down from what I used to do, not sure what we can do tbh.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
It's becoming a problem IMO. I won't be recording my bets on here at all next season. Probably won't even post much from now until the festival either, already slowed down from what I used to do, not sure what we can do tbh.
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I think it’s probably the diaries that need locking down in some way COD, the individual race threads are the heartbeat of the forum and are wonderful.
 
Hamptonfox said:
I think it’s probably the diaries that need locking down in some way COD, the individual race threads are the heartbeat of the forum and are wonderful.
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Probably right HF.
 
B365 go 14/1 second fav for Fitzhenry Kim Muir
 
If I got a job with a bookies now I'd have told them about this forum and get them to pay me to sit on it.

I should market myself out as a Fat Mole.
 
Kevloaf said:
I agree.

From memory wasn't it Viking Flagship who started quite a few last year with some excellent openings?

I'm sure Hamptonfox could do the same...


Well, anyone can do what they want.... but I do adore the first post of a thread being a winner :loyal:
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Yep ‘twas me Kev! And it was about this time of the year I reckon. Coincidentally I started one earlier today for the Martin Pipe but I got sidetracked with work (dammit). Haven’t been on quite so much this season as I’ve not had so much time on my hands with bigger work commitments than last year. You’re all so bloody interesting though so I’ve begun to get sucked back in with March creeping ever closer! I will try to get a couple of threads started in the coming days, although don’t let that stop anyone else from doing so if they fancy it in the meantime.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Very interesting/sneaky that the Skeltons are running Protektorat in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Listed Race) at Cheltenham tomorrow. I'm not sure he's up to this level right now so they could be aiming him high to keep his mark reasonable for a handicap later in the season. He's been held up over 2m this season and 'running on late'.
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Protektorat +7 to 139. That gives them plenty of options if they ditch the novice route for handicaps. The race he ‘won’ LTO probably doesn’t put him in the mix for any novice races but the mark of 139 could be workable.
 
Requested Sempo for any race with 365- rejected due to trading decision whatever that means. Probably just haven't a clue how to price it.
 
jack1092 said:
Requested Sempo for any race with 365- rejected due to trading decision whatever that means. Probably just haven't a clue how to price it.
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365 seem on the back foot with this market at moment. Some generous prices have become skinny prices so yeah probs don't know how to price it
 
Mick Pastor up shortly. Could we see another less than impressive run and him heading towards the Fred Winter?
 
In fairness he probably needed to win that well to even get in. Hopefully a mark in the mid to high 130's for that should be perfect.
 
Kevloaf said:
If I got a job with a bookies now I'd have told them about this forum and get them to pay me to sit on it.

I should market myself out as a Fat Mole.
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I’ll have a chat with my eldest to see if he can assist you.

Don’t think you’d enjoy the pay cut:highly_amused:
 
If Mick Pastor gets a 135-138 rating next Tuesday, brings the Boodles into play. If he has his Flu Jab after this run then they probably would be short of time to squeeze another run in to see if he is a Triumph horse.
 
Hamptonfox said:
If Mick Pastor gets a 135-138 rating next Tuesday, brings the Boodles into play. If he has his Flu Jab after this run then they probably would be short of time to squeeze another run in to see if he is a Triumph horse.
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135 and above is actually quite high for a winner of this race. Apart from last year, most winners were below 135 and a lot of them sub 130 as well. It does not seem to be a vintage year for Juveniles either so I'm not sure many will drop from the Triumph and be well in here off a high mark.
 
For me its rating vs potential ability that is more important than historic ratings. Worked for me with BOA last year, will repeat with MP if he comes here under 140.
 
Hamptonfox said:
For me its rating vs potential ability that is more important than historic ratings. Worked for me with BOA last year, will repeat with MP if he comes here under 140.
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If BOA had been with another trainer he'd have been running in the Triumph hurdle. Its rare to get horses that high and that well in as you need to be Triumph hurdle class to do so. Most of the winners of this race were well enough in but would have had no chance in the Triumph.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
It's becoming a problem IMO. I won't be recording my bets on here at all next season. Probably won't even post much from now until the festival either, already slowed down from what I used to do, not sure what we can do tbh.
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Would a Whatsapp group not be a solution?
 
JackieMoon33 said:
If BOA had been with another trainer he'd have been running in the Triumph hurdle. Its rare to get horses that high and that well in as you need to be Triumph hurdle class to do so. Most of the winners of this race were well enough in but would have had no chance in the Triumph.
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Nicholls has a good record with french recruits in the Boodles, with three recent winners. If anyone knows what a good handicap mark looks like then I think it’s PN and JPM and his boys. Times change I remember having the Fred Winter rated 115, with What A Charm, I think that’s less likely to happen than a winner who has secured a mark in the mid-late 30’s that ends up in graded races shortly afterwards.
 
jack1092 said:
That or a discord? Only issue with this surely is that it'll make the forum quieter, and therefore less popular?
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Surely a forum like this can’t change the odds or markets of a race too much. Is it not possible that there are people out there with the same ideas as you, with cash on the hip? I mean if you spot a good thing, why can’t someone else?

I’ve been punting for a good decade or so now, including many festivals, and only came across this forum in 2018. I was a lurker for a while, but didn’t bet on every horse mentioned, and I’m sure many others are the same. I’d imagine those with the money to influence markets are either members already, or not at all interested in a forum like this, and, as mentioned earlier in this post, coincidentally identify a potential plot horse or a good thing and get there money down ASAP.

Setting up a whatsapp group would just take away from the whole point of this forum surely?
 
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