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Handicap Shortlist - Cheltenham 2020

Anay Turge said:
Surely a forum like this can’t change the odds or markets of a race too much. Is it not possible that there are people out there with the same ideas as you, with cash on the hip? I mean if you spot a good thing, why can’t someone else?

I’ve been punting for a good decade or so now, including many festivals, and only came across this forum in 2018. I was a lurker for a while, but didn’t bet on every horse mentioned, and I’m sure many others are the same. I’d imagine those with the money to influence markets are either members already, or not at all interested in a forum like this, and, as mentioned earlier in this post, coincidentally identify a potential plot horse or a good thing and get there money down ASAP.

Setting up a whatsapp group would just take away from the whole point of this forum surely?
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There have been four or five horses mentioned on here recently that were cut within an hour or two. It could be a coincidence but you do start wondering.

I mean, last night Darlojim and myself were discussing Bapaume and he's nearly halved in price today. It can only be us:devilish:
 
I think a handful of smallish bets will cause price drops in some of these markets myself.

But the rest of what you say (Anay) is right of course.
Many of the horses mentioned on here are on many punters radars and it's clear that other people will see the same things that people on here see.
The only thing I would say is that there won't be as many like minded cheltenham antepost obsessed types so some prices could last a little longer if we bit our tongues a bit more on here.

But missing prices is always going to happen.

And betting antepost can sometimes become a little bit too much about 'getting on at a big price', rather than a value bet on a horse with a better chance of winning than the odds suggest. Getting real value on these markets early in the season is very difficult as so few horses are priced up.

If the price on a horse drops and you've missed it but fancied it...

The best way to look at it, is that the horse still hasn't won, and is unlikely to win (certainly more chance it loses than wins that's for sure)
If you still think the lower price represents a good value bet, then crack on.
If not then look for something else to beat it.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
There have been four or five horses mentioned on here recently that were cut within an hour or two. It could be a coincidence but you do start wondering.

I mean, last night Darlojim and myself were discussing Bapaume and he's nearly halved in price today. It can only be us:devilish:
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He's been mentioned plenty previously though on here.

Kealy put him up that's why hes crashed.
 
Agreed it’s frustrating missing a price, and in some cases it results in me leaving until the day, but that’s part of it. For me, the forum is about building the buzz towards the festival. I enjoy reading what everyone has to say, and do follow a few in on there selections. I don’t post as much as I should, but that’s because others have already mentioned the horses that I fancy, so I suppose it’s good to hve reassurance that what you’ve picked out has also been spotted by somebody else.

If the forum dried up because of people not wanting to post their picks then I think it would be a real shame.

Good luck with your selections everyone. Under 9 weeks to go....
 
jack1092 said:
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He's been mentioned plenty previously though on here.

Kealy put him up that's why hes crashed.
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Jack - can't believe you thought I was being serious. The:devilish: was supposed to give it away.
 
Just because you're paranoid it doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.
 
Been told my old friend Vinndication will be aimed at the Ultima if fit in time. A rating of 159 would appear on the very high side to challenge in this although 2 of the last 3 winners have been rated in the 150s, none were as high as this fella
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Been told my old friend Vinndication will be aimed at the Ultima if fit in time. A rating of 159 would appear on the very high side to challenge in this although 2 of the last 3 winners have been rated in the 150s, none were as high as this fella
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If that's true, then I've lost all faith in that dickhead of a trainer.
The won't run / will run debacle last year.

Didn't even enter him for the Gold Cup ???
But looking to run in a handicap at Cheltenham instead off 159 ??

Penis.

if true.
not doubting anyone either by the way.
 
quevega said:
If that's true, then I've lost all faith in that dickhead of a trainer.
The won't run / will run debacle last year.

Didn't even enter him for the Gold Cup ???
But looking to run in a handicap at Cheltenham instead off 159 ??

Penis.

if true.
not doubting anyone either by the way.
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Certainly wouldn’t take it as gospel with this stable and must be some doubt he’ll even be fit but what I’ve been told, might be something to keep the owners heads up after not entering the GC
 
Hey guys. I have been a regular here in january and February for years. The baupame bet was flagged up in a few columnists in the last 48 hours. Also mentioned on a podcast..sorry guys.
 
jack1092 said:
Requested Sempo for any race with 365- rejected due to trading decision whatever that means. Probably just haven't a clue how to price it.
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Got an email couple hours ago saying they were looking for an easy maiden win towards heading for M Pipe. Some twat must have requested quote for the specific race and he has been installed or backed in to 16/1 with B365. I hope they get a 146 rating!
At least I got my money back on my bets for Ballymore
 
Not a big fan of mares running in handicaps.
and although I can't be bothered to look myself.
I'd be interested in how many Willie and Gordon have run in the handicap hurdles at the festival ?

Considering a horse like Apple's Shakira got competitive in the coral cup last year off a mark of 140.

Elfile 141, Surin 140 and Eglantine du Seuil 140 (all irish marks)

All look reasonably well handicapped right now. And not good enough for the mares.
 
No Pic D’Orhy this weekend
 
:concern: What's that mean do you all think?

The last 48 hours have been all Pic D'Orhy on here - he's gone from a Triumph flop to Champion Hurdler without doing anything :devilish:
 
jack1092 said:
Wind.up.merchant. :applause:
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go easy on Kev jack -he discovered being a WUM three days ago and is still finding his feet with the format!
 
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