I’m looking for some advice from you successful book builders.
I’ve never done one before but have always wanted to give it a try, I’ve decided this is the year and have identified the champion chase as the race to start. At the moment I’m trying to get Il etait temps and kopeck des bordes on side with small roll ups (Il etait more so as I don’t want to get too involved with kopeck until I see a chase entry) and have backed Kargese 10/1 and Mirabad 66/1…………. My questions are should I be backing each way? It seems an obvious race this year for a 5 or 6 runner race!? And with the doubts of Majborough, jonbon, marine, lulamba actually running in the race should I be leaving them until they yield a positive result over 2 miles and take the shorter price?
Any advice greatly appreciated
I wouldn't personally back each way at this stage unless they have little other option's as Spring festival targets and if fit are likely to run no matter what, and even then it'd have to be around 20-1 or above, or be obviously overpriced for some reason I determined.
But if you strongly feel that it may be less than 8 runners next year, then it makes sense to go each way.
In the last 12 runnings there had been 8 renewals with 8 or more runners.
Of the four that were less than 8, these were all in the last 7 renewals, so the recent stats are in your favour.
Everyone knows my opinion of "roll ups". They are muggy and 99% of the time punters are just fooling themselves with these.
It's even more of a fool's errand at this stage of the season.
I'm more forgiving/understanding of these bets the nearer we are to the festival, as the chances of getting a run for your money are better, and the gaps you have in your books are much more defined. For example you may spend time and money trying to get 3 horses in the book in October but by February, only one of them is still realistically a threat to your book.
IMO
They give a false sense of value.
The odds are almost always against you in one way or another. (value on either leg, or the combined odds)
Any successful attempts and the perceived value they provide is quite obviously negated with losing attempts, which are inevitable, although often forgotten about
The money and time spent trying to cover horses that are never a factor (don't turn up for a variety of reasons) come March, also adds to the negation of perceived value in successful attempts that do give you a run for your money.
In many ways, betting ante-post and how much success you have in the end, is as much about not losing money along the way as it is the results on the week itself.
Basically don't piss too much money away along the journey.
