General Chat

[Runragged]

Je ne te comprends pas.......What do you mean by a negative impact on the other two prices ? Do you mean they will shorten or go out ? I think Kitzbuhel winning the King George directly impacts the fact Lulamba and Romeo Coolio will go Ryanair which means, in my opinion, their prices will shorten. Hence placing the bet now. The point I was making is there is an opportunity for a related bet based on the King George outcome and you don't get that opportunity very often. It is of course all down to personal interpretation and attitude to risk. And after a couple of lunchtime Stella's I can confirm my attitude to risk in all aspects of my life goes through the roof.

I think he was referring to combining Kitzbuhel for King George and Gaelic Warrior for Gold Cup, as if Kitzbuhel won then he will shorten for the Gold Cup and thus in theory GW should drift in price.

 

[Runragged]

However, should add, you may equally be ruling at least two others out of the Gold Cup picture if Lulamba and Romeo Coolio for example appeared to not stay which could equally firm up GW's price.

 

[Quevega]

You'd also need to consider the SP.

The ultimate aim with ante-post is to beat SP by as big a margin as possible, but this will obviously not be possible in most cases, as prices will fluctuate throughout the season and not always follow one trajectory. So some horses will be available at bigger prices during the season.
This factor and the things that impact this will differ with all horses and can be managed to a certain extent but it can obviously go wrong on many occasions if you're not thoughtful/careful.

Also in respect of the SP.
Who would Townend ride ?
At this stage it is most likely Gaelic Warrior. Which should help with regards his price holding in normal circumstances.
Also, is it a guarantee that Townend comes over for the King George ? I'd say it's highly likely, but not a given.
Kitzbuhel could easily get smashed in the Durkan if as per his MO, Mullins chucks all of his in.


Shit can happen as we all know.

PS,
I think the related element makes a lot of sense and although unlikely to play out fully, due to the odds. It has a lot going for it as a speculative bet at this point. IMO

Kitzbuhel could well win the King George, but Gaelic Warrior might win the Savill's a distance a couple of days later.


Swings and Roundabouts

 

[Lobos]

I think he was referring to combining Kitzbuhel for King George and Gaelic Warrior for Gold Cup, as if Kitzbuhel won then he will shorten for the Gold Cup and thus in theory GW should drift in price.

If Gaelic doesn't go KG which many in here think (not my view) then Kitzbuhel would go off a lot shorter than he is now and Gaelic price in the GC wouldn't move one bit. Therefore, with that scenario, doing the double now makes proper sense.

Might not pan out like that at all though....

 

[Benjy23]

I think he was referring to combining Kitzbuhel for King George and Gaelic Warrior for Gold Cup, as if Kitzbuhel won then he will shorten for the Gold Cup and thus in theory GW should drift in price.

This. Especially if Kitzbuhel was to beat Gaelic in the KG...

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Maintenant, je comprends. Valid point. I am betting Gaelic Warrior stays in Ireland until the Gold Cup. More praying.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Heard on a podcast recently that NO Fav’s in the main bookmakers Ante Post books for Grade 1’s, at this time last year, won at the Festival 2026

Got me thinking

Are the markets therefore following a trend where they price the market for the main G1 races based upon the previous years form (not sure what else they can base it upon though!) and does this not create an opportunity where you can, or should, make a book without the current AP fav?

Whilst I understand trends can be broken and last years outcomes don’t necessarily represent previous years outcomes, then surely some current prices are simply atrocious and do not represent entirely the horse a) getting to the particular race b) maintaining last years form level throughout this season c) not being bottomed from last years win d) no other horse will progress past it?

At this time last year;
Lossiemouth was around 5/1 and Fav for the Mares Hurdle, which she was thought, in general, to have a better chance of winning…..6/4 fav this year is poor IMO, although the Champ Hurdle division has always been short of depth in potentially 160 rated hurdlers

I’ll Etait Temps was around 12/1 or bigger and thought, in general, to be better suited to the Ryanair……3/1 for this year is nothing short of madness!

Gaelic Warrior was around 12/1, with two or three in front of him in the betting, with talk around him going Ryanair (swapping with Fact To File) ……9/4 for a repeat, nearly six months out, is nothing short of a one way trip to the poor house IMO!

Whilst I am not an oddsmaker, then it must be significant odds on that 2 of the three above don’t win and maybe even all three?

 

[Black Dog]

Maintenant, je comprends. Valid point. I am betting Gaelic Warrior stays in Ireland until the Gold Cup. More praying.

Mange tout, is that you Del boy.

 

[Danman]

Mange tout, is that you Del boy.

Is there a secret mares hurdle tip in there !?

 

[Quevega]

Nice Irish lad who's lost some weight and someone clearly got him a grooming kit for his birthday. Either that or he's got a girlfriend.
For some reason he's using a furniture showroom as his backdrop.
I preferred the Scottish Caddy fella who went with a microwave backdrop (probably the best ever)

Goes through some of Elliott horses to follow anyway.

 

[Eggs]

Nice Irish lad who's lost some weight and someone clearly got him a grooming kit for his birthday. Either that or he's got a girlfriend.
For some reason he's using a furniture showroom as his backdrop.
I preferred the Scottish Caddy fella who went with a microwave backdrop (probably the best ever)

Goes through some of Elliott horses to follow anyway.

….Rare et Precieux also on @darlojim juvenile list, 33-1 (not boosted) a bit of a stand-out with Hills.