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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

I'm on 4.

Delta Work
Santini
Presenting Percy
Elegant Escape


Horses that you can make cases for:

Al Boum Photo
Kemboy
Clan Des Obeaux
Lostintranslation




Hard to have a strong opinion still :dejection:
 
I will respectfully disagree. I’m not saying he wins it but he’s still only 8 and he was hardly disgraced last year. Another year of experience and another good season. I would agree with you on the other four though.
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm on 4.

Delta Work
Santini
Presenting Percy
Elegant Escape


Horses that you can make cases for:

Al Boum Photo
Kemboy
Clan Des Obeaux
Lostintranslation




Hard to have a strong opinion still :dejection:
Click to expand...

When you have second season novices winning the graded races I think it's definitely diluting the chances of the others.
I've still not had a bet in the race yet, aside from speculative ones.
It's the four for me.
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm on 4.

Delta Work
Santini
Presenting Percy
Elegant Escape


Horses that you can make cases for:

Al Boum Photo
Kemboy
Clan Des Obeaux
Lostintranslation




Hard to have a strong opinion still :dejection:
Click to expand...

Kemboy has been comfortably held twice now by Delta Work and the extra trip and the Cheltenham hill should be more to Delta Works liking so I would confidently rule out Kemboy now. He was over rated because he beat Al Boum Photo after the gold cup but he had a major freshness avantage and that form flattered him.

Clan Des Obeaux probably wont go. Much better right handed and on a speed track. Keep him sound and he can be a triple king george winner and that should be the focus for Clan now. No point having a super hard race that you wont win.
Lostintranslation has major question marks against him in including the trip, jumping ability and ability.

Al Boum Photo has a chance but has fell in 20%+ off his career races and although he is a great jumper in the main he always has the possibility of that one lapse of concentration in a race.

All in all Percy aside you are very likely to be on the winner Kevloaf.
 
Lostintranslation doesn't have any questions about his jumping, Delta Work winning boosts his form after him easily disposing of Topoftegame. I'd be worried about just how healthy he is after Kempton though.

Personally I can't see beyond Al Boum Photo or Lostintranslation.
 
luisgarciaisgod said:
Lostintranslation doesn't have any questions about his jumping, Delta Work winning boosts his form after him easily disposing of Topoftegame. I'd be worried about just how healthy he is after Kempton though.

Personally I can't see beyond Al Boum Photo or Lostintranslation.
Click to expand...

What don't you see in Delta Work?

I don't think you should assume LIT is miles clear of the RSA form because of that Aintree run.




I didn't think there would be anybody at all that would be able to rule out Delta Work after his last two wins.
 
luisgarciaisgod said:
Lostintranslation doesn't have any questions about his jumping, Delta Work winning boosts his form after him easily disposing of Topoftegame. I'd be worried about just how healthy he is after Kempton though.

Personally I can't see beyond Al Boum Photo or Lostintranslation.
Click to expand...

Do you think TOTG ran his race at Aintree? I can't believe that he did.
 
Kevloaf said:
What don't you see in Delta Work?

I don't think you should assume LIT is miles clear of the RSA form because of that Aintree run.




I didn't think there would be anybody at all that would be able to rule out Delta Work after his last two wins.
Click to expand...

Delta Work's jumping isn't as good as ABP or LIT's and i ultimately think it'll cost him.

Lots of excuses about TOTG being tired at Aintree but Lostintranslation has also come off a tough enough race himself when getting turned over by Defi and yet won easily.

I would be concerned about just how healthy LIT is though
 
Could easily see 5/6 horses still in contention turning the bend for home this season; there doesn’t seem to be 1 stand out candidate to me
 
I think ABP and DW are well clear of the rest in this. Can't see past those two myself. Still favour ABP though.... DW had a hard enough race today and ABP is going to be the freshest horse in the race.
 
Al Ferof said:
Gold Cup shaping up to be a fantastic race
Click to expand...

Absolutely.
Ireland have todays three plus the reigning champion and this side of the sea there's Santini, LIT and Clan Des Obeaux.
Still over a month to the day but if they all make Gold Cup day this could be a race for the ages...
 
Warming to Santini for this. I've always had doubts him but his RSA run last year was very impressive and he bounced back well from a shocking seasonal debut. I've said it before in this thread but what a shame TOTG is injured. That RSA looks good now after a rancid start to the season.
 
luisgarciaisgod said:
Lostintranslation doesn't have any questions about his jumping, Delta Work winning boosts his form after him easily disposing of Topoftegame. I'd be worried about just how healthy he is after Kempton though.

Personally I can't see beyond Al Boum Photo or Lostintranslation.
Click to expand...

Agree with Lostintranslation for sure - I think he is going to be a bit of a forgotten horse here. Of course he bombed in the King George but aside from that his last 5 runs since the start of 2019 have been pretty faultless as no disgrace being beaten by Defi du Seuil over 2m4. And that run at Christmas was too bad to be true. I wouldn't dismiss him at all. Delta Work ran a shocker on his first chase in open company. And although he won, Santini was woeful at Sandown on his. Although the trajectory of LIT goes the opposite way (good to bad) it shows that one run is far from enough evidence to write off a horses chance. By the time DW and Santini had run once this season the RSA was getting ripped apart (in truth despite raving about it all summer I had started doubting it myself)
Key question mark:
Is the 3m2 trip going to stretch his stamina?

Al Boum Photo has done nothing wrong. For me the only negative you can throw at the horse is that it takes an exceptional horse to win back to back horses. Though that of course actually has absolutely zero impact on his chance in truth. He looks as good as ever and follows the same tried and tested path (albeit his single run away from the key trials does mean it's potentially easier for him to continue winning with no setbacks). Taking Bristol de Mai as a marker he has beaten him further than both Santini and Lostintranslation did so you couldn't really at this stage say the novices coming up have overtaken his level. His beating of Kemboy at Punchestown and that horses proximity to Delta Work the last twice also adds weight to how closely linked the level of form is
Key question mark:
Can he join a select list and win back to back Gold Cups?

Delta Work
Pertemps winner. RSA 3rd (when he missed his prep race). Won the 2 big Irish trials. Has speed and stamina. Only 7 years old.
Loads to like.
Key question mark:
Will his jumping hold up in a Gold Cup?

Santini
Bounced back into contention in the Cotswold Chase. Has always looked every inch a Gold Cup horse. RSA 2nd beating the horse with the best form in Ireland this year despite a bad prep. His beating of Bristol de Mai reads well alongside the likes of ABP and LIT. If Nico can keep him prominent and in touch when the race really heats up then you know he'll be doing his best work at the finish. It obviously depends how much you think his prep in the RSA had an effect but I would also say that despite brushing BdM aside up the hill recently, it could be argued he didn't pick up up the hill as much as you'd think in both the RSA and Albert Bartlett. I do want to get him onside though.
Key question mark:
Does he have the pace to stay in the race to give him the chance to battle up the hill at the finish?

Presenting Percy
I have the other 4 horses above his chances but he's slowly and surely improving as the season goes on and it bodes well for him to peak in this race in March, something he has done in 2 different seasons. Davy gave him time to get into the race today and he travelled up looking like the most likely winner at one stage. In truth i'm slightly disappointed he didn't kick on and win the race as at that moment I thought he was going to put in a performance akin to his RSA win. There was certainly enough positives to think he's got a chance come March. But I do have a nagging doubt that at best he'll run a similar race to today and just find one to two too good on the day. I definitely won't be cashing out my bet on him though and he's the horse i'd like to most see come up trumps.
Key question mark:
Is he building up to his peak come March or is he just slightly held?

I've been disappointed with Kemboys jumping the last 2 runs. He's bang there at the finish so doesn't have too much to find and if he brushed up his jumping you'd think he's worth at least 2-3 lengths. I think he looks a level below what he achieved last season though and would have expected his jumping in particular to come on today.

And Clan des Obeaux just looks another Silviniaco Conti to me who will excel at Kempton.

Hard to see anything else come to the fore now.
 
jono said:
Agree with Lostintranslation for sure - I think he is going to be a bit of a forgotten horse here. Of course he bombed in the King George but aside from that his last 5 runs since the start of 2019 have been pretty faultless as no disgrace being beaten by Defi du Seuil over 2m4. And that run at Christmas was too bad to be true. I wouldn't dismiss him at all. Delta Work ran a shocker on his first chase in open company. And although he won, Santini was woeful at Sandown on his. Although the trajectory of LIT goes the opposite way (good to bad) it shows that one run is far from enough evidence to write off a horses chance. By the time DW and Santini had run once this season the RSA was getting ripped apart (in truth despite raving about it all summer I had started doubting it myself)
Key question mark:
Is the 3m2 trip going to stretch his stamina?

Al Boum Photo has done nothing wrong. For me the only negative you can throw at the horse is that it takes an exceptional horse to win back to back horses. Though that of course actually has absolutely zero impact on his chance in truth. He looks as good as ever and follows the same tried and tested path (albeit his single run away from the key trials does mean it's potentially easier for him to continue winning with no setbacks). Taking Bristol de Mai as a marker he has beaten him further than both Santini and Lostintranslation did so you couldn't really at this stage say the novices coming up have overtaken his level. His beating of Kemboy at Punchestown and that horses proximity to Delta Work the last twice also adds weight to how closely linked the level of form is
Key question mark:
Can he join a select list and win back to back Gold Cups?

Delta Work
Pertemps winner. RSA 3rd (when he missed his prep race). Won the 2 big Irish trials. Has speed and stamina. Only 7 years old.
Loads to like.
Key question mark:
Will his jumping hold up in a Gold Cup?

Santini
Bounced back into contention in the Cotswold Chase. Has always looked every inch a Gold Cup horse. RSA 2nd beating the horse with the best form in Ireland this year despite a bad prep. His beating of Bristol de Mai reads well alongside the likes of ABP and LIT. If Nico can keep him prominent and in touch when the race really heats up then you know he'll be doing his best work at the finish. It obviously depends how much you think his prep in the RSA had an effect but I would also say that despite brushing BdM aside up the hill recently, it could be argued he didn't pick up up the hill as much as you'd think in both the RSA and Albert Bartlett. I do want to get him onside though.
Key question mark:
Does he have the pace to stay in the race to give him the chance to battle up the hill at the finish?

Presenting Percy
I have the other 4 horses above his chances but he's slowly and surely improving as the season goes on and it bodes well for him to peak in this race in March, something he has done in 2 different seasons. Davy gave him time to get into the race today and he travelled up looking like the most likely winner at one stage. In truth i'm slightly disappointed he didn't kick on and win the race as at that moment I thought he was going to put in a performance akin to his RSA win. There was certainly enough positives to think he's got a chance come March. But I do have a nagging doubt that at best he'll run a similar race to today and just find one to two too good on the day. I definitely won't be cashing out my bet on him though and he's the horse i'd like to most see come up trumps.
Key question mark:
Is he building up to his peak come March or is he just slightly held?

I've been disappointed with Kemboys jumping the last 2 runs. He's bang there at the finish so doesn't have too much to find and if he brushed up his jumping you'd think he's worth at least 2-3 lengths. I think he looks a level below what he achieved last season though and would have expected his jumping in particular to come on today.

And Clan des Obeaux just looks another Silviniaco Conti to me who will excel at Kempton.

Hard to see anything else come to the fore now.
Click to expand...

Brilliant.
A longer version of what I said.
You can be my speech writer Jono :applause:
I'll do the twitter stuff. You can proof read for offence potential.
 
quevega said:
Brilliant.
A longer version of what I said.
You can be my speech writer Jono :applause:
I'll do the twitter stuff. You can proof read for offence potential.
Click to expand...

:highly_amused:

Great post Jono
 
Come on Willie, get Faugheen in here :devilish:
 
Irish Expert said:
Kemboy has been comfortably held twice now by Delta Work and the extra trip and the Cheltenham hill should be more to Delta Works liking so I would confidently rule out Kemboy now. He was over rated because he beat Al Boum Photo after the gold cup but he had a major freshness avantage and that form flattered him.

Clan Des Obeaux probably wont go. Much better right handed and on a speed track. Keep him sound and he can be a triple king george winner and that should be the focus for Clan now. No point having a super hard race that you wont win.
Lostintranslation has major question marks against him in including the trip, jumping ability and ability.

Al Boum Photo has a chance but has fell in 20%+ off his career races and although he is a great jumper in the main he always has the possibility of that one lapse of concentration in a race.

All in all Percy aside you are very likely to be on the winner Kevloaf.
Click to expand...

He ran at Aintree. So had actually raced closer to Punchestown.
I think Kemboy isn't suited to not being allowed to race how he wants, which is at the front. When they keep him back a little, he starts jumping erratically. Probably trying to do this to give him a better chance of staying the 3m2.
 
jack1092 said:
He ran at Aintree. So had actually raced closer to Punchestown.
I think Kemboy isn't suited to not being allowed to race how he wants, which is at the front. When they keep him back a little, he starts jumping erratically. Probably trying to do this to give him a better chance of staying the 3m2.
Click to expand...

Think I'd also like to see the jockey make the horses mind up at the fences. Some horses you're able to sit still and they know how to pop them but whenever the jockey was still today kemboy made an awful shape.
 
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