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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

germanshepherd said:
kemboy was looking like a potential freak after aintree and punchestown but he hasn't shown that turn of foot this season. he wont be able to dictate the pace in the gold cup. he jumped right as well.
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There we have it. Archie best get on to whoever deals with Willie and tell him to forget running in the GC.:encouragement:
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I think ABP and DW are well clear of the rest in this. Can't see past those two myself. Still favour ABP though.... DW had a hard enough race today and ABP is going to be the freshest horse in the race.
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Agree with that CCM, the winner will be out of those two, I am more in the ABP camp with DW as my second best. No need to back anything else in this as far as I am concerned.
 
Delta Work +2 to 171
Kemboy -2 to 175
Presenting Percy -1 to 166

Al Boum Photo 175
 
I was very keen on Delta Work last year for the RSA (and had the big price any race thanks to the good auld FJ forum). In the run up I think Delargy mentioned that he thought Delta Work needed a run, and wasn't keen on him for Cheltenham.

Backed him straight away for the Gold CUp at 25s. But obviously an awful start. Savills restored some confidence, but then how to solve a problem like Santini.

He to my mind has always had so much hype and chat that his price is always worse than I think it should be. But whilst I thought his defeat of BDM was just solid, it did raise the Q of covering him if I liked Delta Work.

With DW now having had 2 post Christmas runs, and 2 nice wins, I'm now confident in going alone on him
 
Watching it again Kemboy ran better than I first figured, I figure he has to have a decent chance if the jumping is improved, which might be a tall task given the last two outings. Clear as day that there's a right tool of a horse in there though, bags of ability.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Ireland all the way.
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Clan Des Obeaux? OR 173.

I know he ran last year and finished 5th, albeit a credible 5th. But he was 7. 8 this year and looks to have improved. I think it’s a bit unreasonable to dismiss him. He must have a chance. Looked to be able to stay another mile in the King George and they went a decent pace.
 
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A lot of tired horses after the Irish gold cup snail pace last furlong starting to see Santini plug on at the end to win this years renewal
 
TCH29 said:
Clan Des Obeaux? OR 173.

I know he ran last year and finished 5th, albeit a credible 5th. But he was 7. 8 this year and looks to have improved. I think it’s a bit unreasonable to dismiss him. He must have a chance. Looked to be able to stay another mile in the King George and they went a decent pace.
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Too many horses with better course form at similar enough prices is what'll put people off?




Pie in the sky to think he'll drift to a backable price? 12/1?


He's definitely got more ability than some horses, but the Gold Cup is a unique test and I don't think it's what he needs.
 
I can quite comfortably narrow this race down to 2 horses. Kemboy who needs to improve his jumping and Al Boum Photo who is rock solid.

Santini - Boat, can’t see him having the tactical speed to win a gold cup based on all of his performances
Presenting Percy - Beat fair and square in the gold cup this weekend. Has had multiple runs and I’m not convinced he’s got much more improvement in the locker
Clan Des Obeaux - Kempton specialist, not suited by the test of a gold cup in my opinion
Delta Work - A game winner this weekend but given it’s his third start of the season and the proximity of Kemboy (who jumped poorly) I can’t help but feel his improvement is limited and one or two will improve past him
Lostintranslation - Questions to answer after his Kempton disappointment. Could rebound but I couldn’t be backing him with any confidence
 
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Someone here finally who's all over clan :) . I have been backing him at 8.5 and 9.0 but don't know what to expect of his price. He wont shorten up will he ? Not sure when to get heavily involved.
 
AnFiieLD. said:
I can quite comfortably narrow this race down to 2 horses. Kemboy who needs to improve his jumping and Al Boum Photo who is rock solid.

Santini - Boat, can’t see him having the tactical speed to win a gold cup based on all of his performances
Presenting Percy - Beat fair and square in the gold cup this weekend. Has had multiple runs and I’m not convinced he’s got much more improvement in the locker
Clan Des Obeaux - Kempton specialist, not suited by the test of a gold cup in my opinion
Delta Work - A game winner this weekend but given it’s his third start of the season and the proximity of Kemboy (who jumped poorly) I can’t help but feel his improvement is limited and one or two will improve past him
Lostintranslation - Questions to answer after his Kempton disappointment. Could rebound but I couldn’t be backing him with any confidence
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Santini - Boat?
Plenty of boats win at marathon trips, including in this race...

Percy - Not much improvement?
Maybe not, but his festival record means he may be worth a go... got more festival wins than anything else in this field!

Clan - Not suited
Has the class compared to a lot of these already in the book?

Delta Work - Not got the scope to improve?
You fancy Kemboy? Delta Work has more scope to improve than Kemboy this season doesn't he?

LIT - no confidence
Okay, that doesn't rule him out?






I don't think you've been able to confidently rule any of them out... especially when one of the picks is Kemboy who needs to improve his jumping? That's a pretty big thing to need to improve around Cheltenham, in a Gold Cup?


Al Boum Photo .... rock solid? Got too many letters in his form in his career to be rock solid?










:highly_amused: Don't take that too personally, I could pick holes or make cases for every one of them, that's why I'm finding this race so tough...... but I don't agree with your logic about comfortably narrowing it down? :)
 
It was comfortable in my own head Kev, okay? :highly_amused:

With respect to Al Boum, one of those was a freak jockey incident and he’s been grand since. I’d be prepared to ignore those at this stage.
 
Possibly overlooked horse is Monalee......which could be EW value at 25s

- Form with Delta Work from Xmas looks good
- Good festival form (hence why Each way in particular looks good)
- High enough in ratings (has run 170ish) to get close and had a light campaign
- no reason why he is several times price of Kemboy and Clan, both of whom have poor course form
- Trainer / jockey super-talented and under-rated sometimes....what price would be if was a Mullins or Elliot horse?

I have him at average 50s a while back, but plan to top up when longer EW terms become available
 
Is anyone considering Native River for this at all?
 
TigerRolllllll said:
Possibly overlooked horse is Monalee......which could be EW value at 25s

- Form with Delta Work from Xmas looks good
- Good festival form (hence why Each way in particular looks good)
- High enough in ratings (has run 170ish) to get close and had a light campaign
- no reason why he is several times price of Kemboy and Clan, both of whom have poor course form
- Trainer / jockey super-talented and under-rated sometimes....what price would be if was a Mullins or Elliot horse?

I have him at average 50s a while back, but plan to top up when longer EW terms become available
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It's the extra 2 furlongs that don't look like they'll suit him.


He wasn't staying on best in the RSA, Albert Bartlett or that slowly run race over Christmas.



He definitely could, but the doubt about him getting the trip is where you're getting the price.



I'd put him in the same bracket as Frodon in terms of staying ability. He probably will stay it, jbut not his best trip and therefore won't be good enough to win. Probably not good enough to place at the 3m2f trip up the hill for me.... but you never know :)
 
Zipiter said:
Is anyone considering Native River for this at all?
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No (well, I'm not), because only Kauto Star has been good enough to regain a Gold Cup - and it's laughable to name Native River in that bracket :highly_amused:



The real reason, is because I don't think 2 years on he'll still be the one setting the bar. Two sets of horses are now there, and last years novices look strong (Santini, Lostintranslation, Delta Work)....on top of that, last years winner and multiple grade 1 winners in Al Boum Photo and Kemboy are there....with King George dual time winner Clan Des Obeaux


Native River beat Might Bite....since then, other horses have improved past both.





I'd chance Native River at a silly price, in case it cut up and he got his ground... but at 14/1, I can easily look elsewhere.


I just can't imagine him winning a race this strong.

.....and go here and let me know what profile picture you want ... http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15532-Avatar-Profile-Picture-requests/page24
 
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Kevloaf said:
Nope.

I don't think Gigginstown would let him even if he asked... O'Leary made a point of saying that PP is the reason Davy didn't get the ride first time out.

Where have you been Folski..... and get yourself a picture .... http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15532-Avatar-Profile-Picture-requests/page24
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Work has been hectic Kev, also they brought in a filter which blocks fat jockey, can you have a word! I'll have to have a think about the picture. I only clicked that yours is a cake like a week ago.

Also I'd have had Rachel down for the ride.
 
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