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Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

  • Total voters
    66
Kevloaf said:
Think the owner said in the RP he thinks he's slightly over priced recently.

On the pick of his form he'd have an each way shot wouldn't he.

Not one I've dabbled with though
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If I remember rightly, when we was pricing them up , Archie had him short enough on his tissue. So he may well give him an ew shout.
 
Kevloaf said:
Think the owner said in the RP he thinks he's slightly over priced recently.

On the pick of his form he'd have an each way shot wouldn't he.

Not one I've dabbled with though
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The King George did not impress me, PP still to run but likely winner if he is as good as we all think he is, but can not see DR going off at 33/1 on the day, a lot of horses will drop out but this is his only target, so I should get a run for my money.
 
Bristol de Mai is overpriced for this at 40-1 with betfair. Impressive again at Haydock which may well be his favourite track but at least showed he can go on better ground. Form has been well franked in the King George. I know he fell in that race but he should be around a 16-1 chance imo. He was a well beaten 7th in this 2 years ago but he was only 6 so it might have been too soon for him. Trainer has said he'll have a spin over hurdles before running in this.
 
Definitely Red is one of them where you think 33/1 is big and a few will drop out then it's 50's on the machine on the day.
 
FWIW -
I'll be amazed if any of the older horses that have ran here before will be good enough.
I'd temper that thought a fair bit if it comes up Soft/Heavy.

The only ones I'd give a real chance would be Road to Respect, Clan des Obeaux and Native River.
The first 2 being a little unexposed for me, and Native River is just dangerous as if he gets into a rhythm like last year he's gonna run well.

But aside from those I'd be looking at Presenting Percy, Al Boum Photo, Kemboy, Elegant Escape, Shattered Love and Rathvinden.

Monalee appears to be going ryanair so have left off the list, and of all the second season novices has shown a potential issue with really seeing out the trip, so Ryanair is a sensible choice (year too late)

If the three in bold run in March and it's soft or better then I'd be surprised if they don't all finish top 5. One of them's the winner for me.

That's all you need to know for now.
 
Off back of that just had small bet on Rathvinden 200-1 bf, willie could easily run it as a prep for national.
If he don't go Irish national.

Added valtor at 160-1 whilst visiting BF. he's the spooky one, can't see him running anywhere else unless the albert bartlett shout works out.
 
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I find Kemboy a hard one to price. He could be a freak with an engine and a turn of foot or he could pull, put in a few poor jumps and hate every minute of it. I'm leaning towards him being too immature for a Gold Cup.
 
It just shows you with so many selections for this race how poor it is this year, no standout superstars so far excluding PP until we see him run.. it must be poor if I fancy a 10 yr old @ 33/1 in front of MB, NR, Thistle and so on..
 
History shows second season chasers the way to go. There aren’t that many.
 
Old Vic said:
History shows second season chasers the way to go. There aren’t that many.
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Correct, unless there's some legends knocking about that's usually the case.
I don't see any legends this year which is why I'm strong on the second season novices this year. It kinda worked out last year also, apart from Native river, who only had one prep.
 
Anyone who is going to back Kemboy needs to think of breeding. Nothing has been made of it but I've had this in my mind for a very long time. His sire Voix Du Nord has never had a winner in a top class race beyond 3 miles. There are a couple of exceptions in Vroum Vroum who won a 3 mile Mares hurdle at Ascot but she beat trees and outclassed them off a fairly slow pace.

You look at his progeny, Vibrato Valtat, Taquin Du Seuil, VVM and such like, and you go through his progeny, it will point you to intermediate trips with their optimum distance being 2m4 to 2m6. They often fail to stay the trip in high class, big field handicaps and if there's pace in top class races they are often found wanting beyond 3 miles especially in top class courses too.

Unique De Cotte was probably the rare horse who finished 2nd in the Pertemps in the UK a few years back and he came from out the back off a slow pace that day, so you get the odd exception but I've seen over the years that his progeny do not get the trip in long distance races and I'd be a huge place layer of Kemboy in the Gold Cup purely down to this fact.
 
evertoncal said:
Anyone who is going to back Kemboy needs to think of breeding. Nothing has been made of it but I've had this in my mind for a very long time. His sire Voix Du Nord has never had a winner in a top class race beyond 3 miles. There are a couple of exceptions in Vroum Vroum who won a 3 mile Mares hurdle at Ascot but she beat trees and outclassed them off a fairly slow pace.

You look at his progeny, Vibrato Valtat, Taquin Du Seuil, VVM and such like, and you go through his progeny, it will point you to intermediate trips with their optimum distance being 2m4 to 2m6. They often fail to stay the trip in high class, big field handicaps and if there's pace in top class races they are often found wanting beyond 3 miles especially in top class courses too.

Unique De Cotte was probably the rare horse who finished 2nd in the Pertemps in the UK a few years back and he came from out the back off a slow pace that day, so you get the odd exception but I've seen over the years that his progeny do not get the trip in long distance races and I'd be a huge place layer of Kemboy in the Gold Cup purely down to this fact.
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Interesting angle EC.

Great team btw, and welcome to the forum:very_drunk:
 
8/1 NRNB for Kemboy in the Ryanair

Would have a good shot in that race for you everton?
 
I'm not much of a fan of Kemboy, small field bully but you couldn't but be impressed of his Lexus in so you have to take him seriously, just not in a trip beyond 3 miles anyway and I wouldn't back him in a 3 mile race with something who will make it a test.
 
CDO and Kemboy definitely ones to avoid at the top of the market.
 
charlie said:
King George was rubbish and I don't think Kemboy suits Cheltenham.
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Interestingly though Kemboy and CDO are the only 2 which currently meet all of the established trends based criteria : age 7-9, OR 166+, won over 3m, won G1 chase, less than 14 chases, ran in Lexis or KG, win during season, ran 2- 5 times during season. Appreciate trends are there to be overturned but GC trends are some of the strongest at the Festival.
 
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