Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[doctorwu]

Savills chase was a complete crawl and not a true 3mile test. Kemboy took the initiative and sprinted clear. Cant have him for this race.
Good luck whoever fancies him.

 

[charlie]

Interestingly though Kemboy and CDO are the only 2 which currently meet all of the established trends based criteria : age 7-9, OR 166+, won over 3m, won G1 chase, less than 14 chases, ran in Lexis or KG, win during season, ran 2- 5 times during season. Appreciate trends are there to be overturned but GC trends are some of the strongest at the Festival.

Neither interest me. CDO price of 7/1 is almost as laughable as his rating of 173. The King George was rubbish. He beat a game 10 year old in Thistlecrack, a horse that’s not suited by kempton or that ground in Native River, Politilogue who patently doesn’t stay 3m, a Might Bite on the decline and 2 market principals that fell half way round. He is clearly on the up but wouldn’t touch him for this. Kemboy isn’t anyway near consistent enough on the jumping front to be on my mind for a GC.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Interestingly though Kemboy and CDO are the only 2 which currently meet all of the established trends based criteria : age 7-9, OR 166+, won over 3m, won G1 chase, less than 14 chases, ran in Lexis or KG, win during season, ran 2- 5 times during season. Appreciate trends are there to be overturned but GC trends are some of the strongest at the Festival.

I can’t have picking/ruling out horses based on those sort of trends at all, lazy punting IMO

If we come up with arguments to explain the trends and see whether or not they apply to the particular horse in question then they can be a useful supplement. For example gold cup is for up and comers having their first shot is well established, it’s a brutal race that can take horses where they don’t want to go again - prime example appears to be Might Bite. Do you have to run in the Lexus or King George, absolutely not

 

[Innoko]

Can rule out Kemboy as Willie has never won the GC.

So there we have it, CDO Gold Cup winner 2019. Might as well not even run it now. :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Interestingly though Kemboy and CDO are the only 2 which currently meet all of the established trends based criteria : age 7-9, OR 166+, won over 3m, won G1 chase, less than 14 chases, ran in Lexis or KG, win during season, ran 2- 5 times during season. Appreciate trends are there to be overturned but GC trends are some of the strongest at the Festival.

Maybe so, but they got done last season when a returning Native River went and won it. FWIW I'm all for a good trend/stat to help build me a picture of a race.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I can’t have picking/ruling out horses based on those sort of trends at all, lazy punting IMO

If we come up with arguments to explain the trends and see whether or not they apply to the particular horse in question then they can be a useful supplement. For example gold cup is for up and comers having their first shot is well established, it’s a brutal race that can take horses where they don’t want to go again - prime example appears to be Might Bite. Do you have to run in the Lexus or King George, absolutely not

I wouldn't call it 'lazy punting' they make up a fascinating angle IMHO. I use them, but as a piece of the whole picture not as a definitive argument against any one particular animal.

 

[boopa]

Native River was a stat buster probably helped by his prep. Trainers might start following the route of less runs.

Fwiw a friend of mine and pro punter has made significant profit over 20-years on this race using a trends framework. He backs the horses which fit the most filters. His criteria is more detailed than the standard trends online but this is a strong trends race if you are taking a long term view.

 

[archie]

Everyone knows (I hope) that I don't tip or back my own horses but I feel inclined to state the case for Kemboy by covering some of the negatives stated over the last few hours.

Stamina.
The best answer is that we don't know. We do know that he won over 3m on heavy and good. We also know that he started last season being aimed at the stayers hurdle and he ran in the Irish Grand National so those closest to him obviously don't think that stamina is an issue.

Pedigree.
It's for sure that Voix Du Nord has mainly produced horses better at distances shorter than 3m2f. However, this is only his 7th season with runners so there are relatively few who have achieved full maturity. As he died in 2013, this is unlikely to be resolved but anyone with any knowledge of breeding will know that there are no absolutes. Indeed, it can be argued that the best RPR achieved by a VDN was by Kemboy over 3 miles so maybe opportunities have been missed along the line.

Cheltenham.
Contrary to having poor Cheltenham form, 5th in the Neptune and 4th in the JLT doesn't seem too shabby to me.

Jumping.
Certainly an issue in his novice season however, in the JLT his one serious mistake was caused by Finian's Oscar and his fall in the Irish GN was pure pilot error. Since that race he has won 3 times with no serious jumping error. Any horse can make a race-ending mistake at any time and Kemboy is no exception.

Small field bully.
Presumably this ignores the handicap at Punchestown where he beat 17 others by 5 lengths going away and carrying 11-10.

We've had a number of discussions about stats on this thread. One of my early contributions was:
'I tend to look at some trends in combination and look for a reason. There is a stat that has Gold Cup winners not having had more than 10 runs over fences and another that says they should have had 2 to 5 runs that season. Native River blew both of those and I tend to the view that it was because of the very soft ground.

Horses are more likely to improve in the earlier stages of a career partly because of physical maturing and partly because practice makes perfect. It's a rare chaser that gets better after the age of 8 or 9 and in normal circumstances the first chance is likely the best one. I've a question mark against all the horses who ran in last season's edition but I'd be more forgiving the younger they are.

For me, stats are best viewed as a group and several of the key figures won't be known until February.'

No reason to change my mind since except that I'm coming around to the view that, because the ground was so bad last year, all the form is dodgy and, unless it goes that way again in March I'm simply going to erase it from the 10 year stats.

Having said all that, my personal preference would be to go for the Ryanair this year and leave the Gold Cup to 2020 but I do see the argument that much can go wrong and he may never get another go at it so I'm happy to leave all that to others.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Good post archie and you make a good case for him. I think its very hard not to be impressed by his last run, regardless of how the race was run. I missed the boat though and couldnt get involved at the current prices, but anyone at bigger prices must be feeling very pleased.

 

[Quevega]

Horses are more likely to improve in the earlier stages of a career partly because of physical maturing and partly because practice makes perfect. It's a rare chaser that gets better after the age of 8 or 9 and in normal circumstances the first chance is likely the best one. I've a question mark against all the horses who ran in last season's edition but I'd be more forgiving the younger they are.

That's about as solid as it gets, it's almost fact.

Having said all that, my personal preference would be to go for the Ryanair this year and leave the Gold Cup to 2020 but I do see the argument that much can go wrong and he may never get another go at it so I'm happy to leave all that to others.

And you're just being defensive with this.
He has to go for the gold cup. (i've not backed him)
He has the best chance in this and would be more suited to the test, as his last few runs have shown.

 

[Old Vic]

Archie well argued.

I had missed this ..

Cheltenham.
Contrary to having poor Cheltenham form, 5th in the Neptune and 4th in the JLT doesn't seem too shabby to me.

 

[boopa]

Horses are more likely to improve in the earlier stages of a career partly because of physical maturing and partly because practice makes perfect. It's a rare chaser that gets better after the age of 8 or 9 and in normal circumstances the first chance is likely the best one. I've a question mark against all the horses who ran in last season's edition but I'd be more forgiving the younger they are.

That's about as solid as it gets, it's almost fact.

Having said all that, my personal preference would be to go for the Ryanair this year and leave the Gold Cup to 2020 but I do see the argument that much can go wrong and he may never get another go at it so I'm happy to leave all that to others.

And you're just being defensive with this.
He has to go for the gold cup. (i've not backed him)
He has the best chance in this and would be more suited to the test, as his last few runs have shown.

The Lexus wasn't run like a Gold Cup. I think he'd be a massive player in the Ryanair. Very versatile tactically could make all or use his turn of foot.

 

[Quevega]

The Lexus wasn't run like a Gold Cup. I think he'd be a massive player in the Ryanair. Very versatile tactically could make all or use his turn of foot.

I agree he'd be a player in the Ryanair,
But Mullins thought he could be competitive in a hennessey off top weight.
He won the Lexus as easy as I've seen, even off a slow pace to begin with. Nothing got near him and he made the running and quickened from the front.
He won at Limerick over 3 on heavy.
They know he stays.
So he'll go for the Gold cup. 95% sure

 

[boopa]

Very talented and progressive horse. Wouldn't want to lay him but 8/1 doesn't appeal at all.

 

[Quevega]

Very talented and progressive horse. Wouldn't want to lay him but 8/1 doesn't appeal at all.

Yep, his price is another debate altogether, little bit short now if they all turn up.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Everyone knows (I hope) that I don't tip or back my own horses but I feel inclined to state the case for Kemboy by covering some of the negatives stated over the last few hours.

Stamina.
The best answer is that we don't know. We do know that he won over 3m on heavy and good. We also know that he started last season being aimed at the stayers hurdle and he ran in the Irish Grand National so those closest to him obviously don't think that stamina is an issue.

Pedigree.
It's for sure that Voix Du Nord has mainly produced horses better at distances shorter than 3m2f. However, this is only his 7th season with runners so there are relatively few who have achieved full maturity. As he died in 2013, this is unlikely to be resolved but anyone with any knowledge of breeding will know that there are no absolutes. Indeed, it can be argued that the best RPR achieved by a VDN was by Kemboy over 3 miles so maybe opportunities have been missed along the line.

Cheltenham.
Contrary to having poor Cheltenham form, 5th in the Neptune and 4th in the JLT doesn't seem too shabby to me.

Jumping.
Certainly an issue in his novice season however, in the JLT his one serious mistake was caused by Finian's Oscar and his fall in the Irish GN was pure pilot error. Since that race he has won 3 times with no serious jumping error. Any horse can make a race-ending mistake at any time and Kemboy is no exception.

Small field bully.
Presumably this ignores the handicap at Punchestown where he beat 17 others by 5 lengths going away and carrying 11-10.

We've had a number of discussions about stats on this thread. One of my early contributions was:
'I tend to look at some trends in combination and look for a reason. There is a stat that has Gold Cup winners not having had more than 10 runs over fences and another that says they should have had 2 to 5 runs that season. Native River blew both of those and I tend to the view that it was because of the very soft ground.

Horses are more likely to improve in the earlier stages of a career partly because of physical maturing and partly because practice makes perfect. It's a rare chaser that gets better after the age of 8 or 9 and in normal circumstances the first chance is likely the best one. I've a question mark against all the horses who ran in last season's edition but I'd be more forgiving the younger they are.

For me, stats are best viewed as a group and several of the key figures won't be known until February.'

No reason to change my mind since except that I'm coming around to the view that, because the ground was so bad last year, all the form is dodgy and, unless it goes that way again in March I'm simply going to erase it from the 10 year stats.

Having said all that, my personal preference would be to go for the Ryanair this year and leave the Gold Cup to 2020 but I do see the argument that much can go wrong and he may never get another go at it so I'm happy to leave all that to others.

Good response, and we should be grateful that we get not only balanced opinions on both sides but from someone so close to the horse.
This doesn't have the makings of a vintage renewal, could be wrong obviously but with Might Bite looking to have gone and Presenting Percy in hiding there are a very limited number of challengers to the crown.
Personally I think this is the ideal opportunity for Kemboy although Native River has only enhanced his crudentials to retain his crown but my opinion was not the driver for the post....

 

[evertoncal]

Everyone knows (I hope) that I don't tip or back my own horses but I feel inclined to state the case for Kemboy by covering some of the negatives stated over the last few hours.

Stamina.
The best answer is that we don't know. We do know that he won over 3m on heavy and good. We also know that he started last season being aimed at the stayers hurdle and he ran in the Irish Grand National so those closest to him obviously don't think that stamina is an issue.

Pedigree.
It's for sure that Voix Du Nord has mainly produced horses better at distances shorter than 3m2f. However, this is only his 7th season with runners so there are relatively few who have achieved full maturity. As he died in 2013, this is unlikely to be resolved but anyone with any knowledge of breeding will know that there are no absolutes. Indeed, it can be argued that the best RPR achieved by a VDN was by Kemboy over 3 miles so maybe opportunities have been missed along the line.

Cheltenham.
Contrary to having poor Cheltenham form, 5th in the Neptune and 4th in the JLT doesn't seem too shabby to me.

Jumping.
Certainly an issue in his novice season however, in the JLT his one serious mistake was caused by Finian's Oscar and his fall in the Irish GN was pure pilot error. Since that race he has won 3 times with no serious jumping error. Any horse can make a race-ending mistake at any time and Kemboy is no exception.

Small field bully.
Presumably this ignores the handicap at Punchestown where he beat 17 others by 5 lengths going away and carrying 11-10.

We've had a number of discussions about stats on this thread. One of my early contributions was:
'I tend to look at some trends in combination and look for a reason. There is a stat that has Gold Cup winners not having had more than 10 runs over fences and another that says they should have had 2 to 5 runs that season. Native River blew both of those and I tend to the view that it was because of the very soft ground.

Horses are more likely to improve in the earlier stages of a career partly because of physical maturing and partly because practice makes perfect. It's a rare chaser that gets better after the age of 8 or 9 and in normal circumstances the first chance is likely the best one. I've a question mark against all the horses who ran in last season's edition but I'd be more forgiving the younger they are.

For me, stats are best viewed as a group and several of the key figures won't be known until February.'

No reason to change my mind since except that I'm coming around to the view that, because the ground was so bad last year, all the form is dodgy and, unless it goes that way again in March I'm simply going to erase it from the 10 year stats.

Having said all that, my personal preference would be to go for the Ryanair this year and leave the Gold Cup to 2020 but I do see the argument that much can go wrong and he may never get another go at it so I'm happy to leave all that to others.

There's a pretty big conclusive evidence on breeding to suggest he won't stay despite you saying his sire wasn't around for that long, and he won't either. Best bet of the festival will be place laying him if he's the same price as he is now.

 

[Kevloaf]

Native River was a stat buster probably helped by his prep. Trainers might start following the route of less runs.

Fwiw a friend of mine and pro punter has made significant profit over 20-years on this race using a trends framework. He backs the horses which fit the most filters. His criteria is more detailed than the standard trends online but this is a strong trends race if you are taking a long term view.

Presenting Percy the new...

Best Mate...

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Presenting Percy the new...

Best Mate...

For....1 year only.....then Santini (Denman V2) comes along.....

 

[Kautostar]

Whatever the breeding suggests he deserves a crack at an open gold cup. He could get injured next year who knows, strike while the iron is hot. There’s always the Ryanair next season if he doesn’t stay the trip. Good luck Archie wherever he runs