Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[Kevloaf]

Good post archie and you make a good case for him. I think its very hard not to be impressed by his last run, regardless of how the race was run. I missed the boat though and couldnt get involved at the current prices, but anyone at bigger prices must be feeling very pleased.

Agree with every word there.

Same boat for me.

Good response, and we should be grateful that we get not only balanced opinions on both sides but from someone so close to the horse.

Absolutely right.

 

[Kevloaf]

My good friend Terrefort must be worth serious consideration at 33/1 for this race musn't he?

Hendo sums up last season nicely in his ATR stable tour... "He doesn’t show you anything at home but I like horses like him and he progressed out of recognition as the season went on."

I like horses like him too, that save the best for the track - and he isn't wrong, he has progressed from very average French form to winning a Grade 1 at the Aintree Fesival!

Positives
The 2nd in the JLT to Shattered Love has to be taken as a positive, it gives me no doubts he can handle the track - He went off fav for the JLT and although SL has been beaten twice since - you can make excuses for the run at Punchestown (well worth watching back just for the drama at the final fence) and Al Boum Photo did beat SL 1L but I really rate ABP so wouldn't knock that run.

The biggest amount of improvement though came with Terrefort stepping up to 3m. Be beat Ms Parfois by nearly 4L, who we know is a strong stayer - having only gone down half a length over 4 miles at Cheltenham behind Rathvinden. The way he asserted in the final furlong was really impressive and the trip has to be the angle in to him being a good value bet.

The form at Aintree seems to not give him the credit he deserves - I know it's a completely different track and day, but in 3rd at Aintree he had Elegant Escape 12L back - and Elegant Escape was 14L behind Presenting Percy in the RSA. I do love Percy and think he's better but when PP is 6/1 and Terrefort is 33/1 and more unexposed you do have to take another look at the collateral form (albeit not a strong case) I think if Terrefort improved again this season he will be right in the mix come March!

Hendo has also said:
"We are thinking of that Intermediate Chase that Might Bite won last year then have a look at the Ladbrokes trophy. That is the thought subject to a lot of changes."

Following the same path that Might Bite took is a positive for me too, the trainer is fantastic and there aren't many trainers who you'd rather have training a Gold Cup horse than Nicky.

Negatives:
Ground? Does Terrefort need soft ground? He's had 9 runs in his life, 8 on soft and 1 on good. I can't recall any good ground over the winter and it doesn't look like he avoided good ground, but it is a slight unknown so has to be in the negative section.

Irish horses much stronger? - Presenting Percy, Monalee, Al Boum Photo, Shattered Love - on form, all 4 of those are better than Terrefort at the moment. When Terrefort won at Aintree, he did only beat British horses (with the exception of Snow Falcon who PU and didn't run his race) - even if Terrefort rises to near the top of the British 3m chase divison, will he just get chinned by the (seemingly) top class bunch of Irish Novice chasers from last season - The Flogas and Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown for me were easily the best form races of last season and we're all dominated by Irish horses. The only notable contender from England was Finian's Oscar was carried out whilst in 2nd in the latter race, but that horse was an enigma and clearly very talented on his best day. Overall I think it's really hard to say that the Irish don't have the upper hand with the second season chasers and that has to be a negative for Terrefort. even if he had a stellar season leading to Cheltenham, I fear he'd still come up short.

Too Young? Will only be 6 for his Gold Cup year, it was too much for Bristol De Mai. Long Run was the last 6 year old winner (which does have its positives as he was also French bred and with Nicky Henderson) but before Long Run is was Mill House in 1963. I won't be doing an in-depth look into how many 6yo runners there have actually been, but logic tells you it isn't a race that would suit younger horses in general.

Conclusion

He is 3 wins from 4 chases, form reads 1121, has a top class proven Gold Cup winning trainer, is young and improving and unexposed at 3 mile trips with some nice Cheltenham form in the bag. It may be a year too soon for him but I think he's underestimated at 33/1 for the 2019 Gold Cup.

Bumping my own post again :highly_amused: but thought this was interesting:

Of the chasers, I’m delighted to report that

Terrefort is doing really well and seems over the muscle problem he picked up at Sandown in November and I think the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham on January 26th is very much a possibility for his return. I’m very pleased with the way he’s coming along and he’s moving very nicely. He’ll work again tomorrow and we’ll have a better idea after that but Anthony Bromley (racing manager for Simon and Isaac) is very good at finding races and this could be ideal. We gave him an entry in the Magners Gold Cup, along with the Ryanair Chase, but all of that is a long way off.

So, first thing to say is that he thinks Gold Cup and Ryanair are still a way off, but that is what NRNB is for!

I see PP and Fred are 50/1 NRNB - I had a free bet at 33's but I'm having 1 pt e/w at 50/1 - probably a more likely non runner but I don't mind tying the money up and nothing has really changed since I made the case originally. Shattered Love could have done more for the form sure, but I am inclined to take a flyer at the price.

Also, UniB are biggest price for him in the Ryanair anmd only 25/1 (without NRNB) in the Gold Cup... clearly don't want to lay him IMHO

 

[doctorwu]

Whatever the breeding suggests he deserves a crack at an open gold cup. He could get injured next year who knows, strike while the iron is hot. There’s always the Ryanair next season if he doesn’t stay the trip. Good luck Archie wherever he runs

And why not. I don't fancy him but that wouldn't stop him from winning :highly_amused:
At least they won't dodge the race like a few I could mention.

 

[archie]

There's a pretty big conclusive evidence on breeding to suggest he won't stay despite you saying his sire wasn't around for that long, and he won't either. Best bet of the festival will be place laying him if he's the same price as he is now.

Entirely your prerogative. Of course, there's pretty big conclusive evidence on breeding to suggest that Kemboy couldn't achieve an OR of 167 or an RPR of 172.

 

[boopa]

Easy to be bold when it's not your horse. Kemboy is young and learning on the job. I would run him in the Ryanair if he was mine. The Gold Cup can ruin horses.

 

[Brital]

Easy to be bold when it's not your horse. Kemboy is young and learning on the job. I would run him in the Ryanair if he was mine. The Gold Cup can ruin horses.

Agree totally and Archie has said that’s his preference. He’s still young, the Ryanair is a grade 1, and hopefully he will have plenty of time for a shot at the gold cup.

 

[archie]

I've obviously got a vested interest so I'm just going to list some facts and let others interpret them as they wish.

There has been some comment about the Savills implying that it was a slow and muddled pace. While bearing in mind that Irish race distances and going descriptions are notoriously approximate and my own hand timings are also very much approximate, I've come up with these 'facts'.

2018
Winning time: 6m 6.5s
Time for final circuit: 3m 34s
Going: Good to Yielding
Comment: Faster than all but one of the previous ten runnings. Winner rated 157 before the race and 167 after.

2017
Winning time: 6m 8.4s
Time for final circuit: 3m 41s
Going: Yielding
Comment: Winner rated 163 before the race and 167 after.

2016
Winning time: 6m 2.4s
Time for final circuit: 3m 39s
Going: Yielding
Comment: Fastest race in the 11 years covered. Winner rated 160 before the race and 164 after.

2011
Winning time: 6m 19.5s
Time for final circuit: 3m 42s
Going: Good
Comment: Fastest going in the 11 years covered. The winner (Synchronised - 155 rated before this race) went on to win the Gold Cup in his next race off an official rating of 167.

 

[Toffees]

Thistlecrack boosted to 18/1 with Hills for the day. Would be decent if it was NRNB

 

[Kevloaf]

Thistlecrack boosted to 18/1 with Hills for the day. Would be decent if it was NRNB

I don't see the appeal with Thistlecrack.

For me, his form doesn't really stack up?

He won a 5 runner King George, from Cue Card, which is obviously a decent level of form but not superb.

He was outstayed at Cheltenham by Many Clouds who although he was a good horse and a Grand National winner, the GN is a grade 3 handicap for stayers.

Had a run over hurdles and was beaten by Beer Goggles, before 4th in the King George (behind Double Shuffle et al) and this year he's also been beaten twice.

None of it's bad form at all, but none of it makes me think he's a Gold Cup winner in waiting.

 

[boopa]

Thistlecrack is hard on the bridle he doesn't relax. Has no chance.

 

[Quevega]

Rathvinden,
has anyone got any news on this one.

The four miler seems to have worked out well, aside from Ms Parfois who seems to have disappeared from all future entries.

But Willie has used the Gold cup as a prep in the past for his National horses, so took a pop at 200-1 on betfair the other day. It's 65 now but maybe floating about a bit due to low amounts.
The weights have normally closed for the national but it's roughly 3 weeks in between this year (maybe that's a negative)

It would be some story if his first gold cup winner was this horse, ridden by patrick maybe.

 

[boopa]

Honeyball's yard had a virus. Ms Parfois will be aimed at the mares race at Exeter in Feb then the National if all goes well.

 

[Quevega]

Honeyball's yard had a virus. Ms Parfois will be aimed at the mares race at Exeter in Feb then the National if all goes well.

Good, I like that horse.

 

[The Beast]

Thistlecrack brings the best recent consistant form into the Gold Cup , gets the trip well , acts around Cheltenham , many wont get trip or act on course. He deserves a crack at the race and he certainly a player along with probably 10 others.

To say he cant win or wont win is better fiction that a Stephen King novel. Most open Gold Cup in many a year so good luck to him.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Thistlecrack brings the best recent consistant form into the Gold Cup , gets the trip well , acts around Cheltenham , many wont get trip or act on course. He deserves a crack at the race and he certainly a player along with probably 10 others.

To say he cant win or wont win is better fiction that a Stephen King novel. Most open Gold Cup in many a year so good luck to him.

Thistlecrack has come back well from his injury but in any normal year his age and stamina doubts would be enough to put me off, then again this isn’t a normal year....

 

[jack1092]

I'd be very much against Thistlecrack too- what to back against him is another thing. This race will be one i leave until closer to the time to actually bet on. The ground could mess us around yet again.

 

[charlie]

It's an open gold cup and his form is OK but you have to go back to 1962 to when an 11 year old last won the gold cup so I personally wouldn't knock anyone saying Thistlecrack won’t win it, little to no chance IMO.

 

[Kevloaf]

Thistlecrack brings the best recent consistant form into the Gold Cup , gets the trip well , acts around Cheltenham , many wont get trip or act on course. He deserves a crack at the race and he certainly a player along with probably 10 others.

To say he cant win or wont win is better fiction that a Stephen King novel. Most open Gold Cup in many a year so good luck to him.

The best recent form? Clan Des Obeaux surely
Gets the trip well? Unproven
Acts around Cheltenham? Yeah
Deserves a crack? Yeah

I'd want a bigger price than he is, is all I'm saying

 

[Scooby91]

Frodon targeting the gold cup. Interesting enough, 33s nrnb if anyone fancys him. If he dosent go very close in the Cotswold chase. He wont be running.

 

[BigChaang]

Frodon targeting the gold cup. Interesting enough, 33s nrnb if anyone fancys him. If he dosent go very close in the Cotswold chase. He wont be running.

No Chance !.