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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

JackieMoon, I am tempted to go with you on RESERVE TANK in the RSA having watched back his videos from earlier this year. He had only just turned five, had suffered an illness and interrupted preparation, but the evidence is there in his four race unbeaten run, that he is a smart horse, who travels well, jumps well, responds to driving and stays extremely well. He achieved an enormous amount in a small space of time, and given a full season over fences I hope to see him taking high order.

Of all of the Festival Novice Chase races, I would prefer him in the RSA, and the 33/1 with 365 is a standout price. Well researched, top stuff.
 
Been keeping an eye on the forum great to see all the comments over the summer always entertaining views minella indo all day for me in the rsa if he can skip a fence in will gallop gallop and gallop them into the ground
 
Arkle said:
Been keeping an eye on the forum great to see all the comments over the summer always entertaining views minella indo all day for me in the rsa if he can skip a fence in will gallop gallop and gallop them into the ground
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Whilst Minella Indo certainly brings the best novice Hurdle form to the table, his price of 10/1 with Bet365 is shockingly bad. My usual position this early in the season is that I want at least 16/1 for any bet to be considered.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Whilst Minella Indo certainly brings the best novice Hurdle form to the table, his price of 10/1 with Bet365 is shockingly bad. My usual position this early in the season is that I want at least 16/1 for any bet to be considered.
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12/1 Sky.
It is odd that we had Minella Indo in one of the early AP yankees for the RSA at 20/1, which you have to say is a decent price about a potato race winner, nothing has raced and there’s been little/no media attention on the race yet the horse has halved in price.
Was the 20/1 a massive error ?
 
I think WH had screwed up a little for a while too, though now rectified. They had Minella Indo @ 14's (boosted to 15.72) 'any race' for quite some time when he was as short as 8's for the RSA. Obviously I had to get involved in that.
 
Istabraq said:
12/1 Sky.
It is odd that we had Minella Indo in one of the early AP yankees for the RSA at 20/1, which you have to say is a decent price about a potato race winner, nothing has raced and there’s been little/no media attention on the race yet the horse has halved in price.
Was the 20/1 a massive error ?
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20/1 would have definitely been of interest for sure.
 
Didn't the drop in price come about after Punchestown? He was 20s post Cheltenham, but then followed up with a win at Punchestown too
 
TJW1990 said:
Didn't the drop in price come about after Punchestown? He was 20s post Cheltenham, but then followed up with a win at Punchestown too
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Yes Minella Indo beat Allaho and Carefully Selected at Punchestown and the price drop followed that.

I took the WH price boost to 22/1 for the RSA, and 15.3/1 Any Race on the horse before the Punchestown Win. Still room for other bets in the race at big prices though, so I have taken the 33/1 on Reserve Tank.
 
I think that is right - dropped after Punchestown.

I think 12/1 is still very good value. When you see how hard he pulled throughout the potato race and the fact he went on to win at Punchestown (very hard to do) I think he sticks out a mile. Granted we haven’t seen him jump but he looks a chaser and for me could be a bit of a beast.

Like any horse going novice chasing, there is a risk that he doesn’t take to fences but I think -2s is still good value.
 
Minella Indo was a relatively inexperienced winner of the Albert Bartlett so there could be a lot of progression to come too. The reasons why 12/1 (10/1 with Bet365 cashout) is not the price for me are: potential injury, confirmation he can jump fences and other horses improving past him. These concerns are obviously the same for other ante post bets but that’s why I want the bigger price.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Minella Indo was a relatively inexperienced winner of the Albert Bartlett so there could be a lot of progression to come too. The reasons why 12/1 (10/1 with Bet365 cashout) is not the price for me are: potential injury, confirmation he can jump fences and other horses improving past him. These concerns are obviously the same for other ante post bets but that’s why I want the bigger price.
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Absolutely.
Use the archie line and there's only a 50% chance he gets to March fit, healthy and in good form and even then there would be a small chance he heads to the 4 miler/3.6miler or JLT.
I think that March yankee has a lifechanger look about it, all decent prices....
 
Istabraq said:
Absolutely.
Use the archie line and there's only a 50% chance he gets to March fit, healthy and in good form and even then there would be a small chance he heads to the 4 miler/3.6miler or JLT.
I think that March yankee has a lifechanger look about it, all decent prices....
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Espoir D’Allen being our kills the dream a bit
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Espoir D’Allen being our kills the dream a bit
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They've been very careful not to say he's done for the year, the language used give us some hope.
There have been enough miracle recoveries over the years and this one has (realistically) 5/6 months to recover and prove race fitness
 
Istabraq said:
They've been very careful not to say he's done for the year, the language used give us some hope.
There have been enough miracle recoveries over the years and this one has (realistically) 5/6 months to recover and prove race fitness
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Unfortunately, from what I've heard, I wouldn't be holding my breath.
 
Placed.
Threat 15/8 (3.00 york)
Buveur d'air champion hurdle 7/1
22/1 double.
 
Added Sams Profile 40/1 for the RSA today
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I have to convince myself it’s a good bet first as I don’t like to waste darts - all part of my diligence process.

The Big Getaway is a real beast (17 hands I think) so I’m only really interested in the Albert Bartlett. Doesn’t mean he won’t run over shorter though as I’m wrong way more than I’m right :highly_amused:

It was actually me that mentioned Eldorado Allen in the Arkle thread but I added him on this list too as he’s one I’m keen on even if he stepped up in trip too.
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I did'nt even think of The Big getaway for the A.B . was just looking at the potential runners in various races.
saw him in the B/more +connections, so had to be earmarked.
the Martin Brssil horse sounds like it's got potential , But at these prices , most of them worth a little punt .
 
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