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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

I thought Samrco had been schooled over a fence as wasnt he jumpping hurdles big at the start of the season?
 
Had 2.5 points with 365 on Samcro for the JLT at 16s. I wasn't keen on him at all last year over a shorter distance and cashed out a small bet for the CH after he got turned over on debut. I just think they thought he was so good and as they had plenty of novice chasers they'd go for the big one. Turned out to be a pretty bad call. As mentioned I'm not keen on him over 2 miles and he has it to prove up in trip so happy to go for JLT with cash out an option.

I see Scooby mentions no concerns over his jumping fences, I assume due to Samcro's PTP background. Rewatching that YouTube footage where be beats Elegant Esacpe in a PTP it's a bit inconclusive as only see him jump 4 fences and one is definitely a bit sketchy. Anyway I agree you could probably wait a couple of weeks but as COD says there's a chance of a price collapse while I'm at work, so 16s with cash out will do for me.
 
I had Samcro down for the RSA.... having won his point stamina shouldn’t be a problem and I think you need a turn of foot for the JLT that Samcro doesn’t have. He seems to travel well but lacks gears and to me looks like he wants 3 miles where his cruising speed would come to the fore.
 
The RSA was always the race I anticipated for Samcro last year and it's the one price that I'd be looking more to invest at (25's) if I were too get involved. But It'll be the strongest novice chase division and I do think they may well go for the JLT and couldn't second guess after last season. The other question mark I'd have with him before he runs (or a horse who misses their Novice chase season) is we have no direct form line with the novices this year. Obviously we can make a call between the years - what appears to be the strongest and even just whether we think Samcro was better than them all but the vast majority of times when you weigh up the novice chasers for the new season you'll have the match ups and form lines over hurdles to form some substance. Just one thing lacking and another question mark which for me brings some more reluctance to back him now.

Black Op, Next Destination, Scarpeta, Duc de Genivieres, Vision des Flos, Paloma Blue, Whiskey Sour, Real Steel, Sharjah

Wouldn't jump out the page?

Champ, City Island, Bright Forecast, Battleoverdoyen, Minella Indo, Allaho

Look a fair level at this stage in comparison?
You could say his exploits in grade 1 open company are a level above (obviously being a level above the Novice hurdles last year) but he had more disappointments there than achievements?

To be fair he's a horse I wouldn't need too much persuadance to change my mind and back. A few positive mentions soon might even be enough but I'm airing on the side of caution for now at his price. The only temptation is to back with 365 with cashout as I do agree it's likely going to be the biggest price regardless of how he gets on bar absolutely bombing out.
 
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somer1 said:
Thought i had read that other bookies than 365 had priced up the Ladbrokes Trophy/Gold Cup double but cant find anything.
Help Needed Please :encouragement:
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SkyBet > Specials > National Hunt

Santini 80/1
Topofthegame 66/1
 
Obviously not the most exciting race of the week but just looking at bits of value out there and think Concertista for the Mares Novice could be worth a couple of quid at 10s (bet365). Ran to within a head of winning the race this year on her first and only start over hurdles, and surely Mullins will be aiming her at this again? Gypsy Island does look impressive but had the one run over hurdles and got beaten before returning to bumpers for the rest of the season.

Like is said, not the most exciting race to be talking about, especially not at this stage, but what do people think as a bit of an ante post play?
 
TJW1990 said:
Obviously not the most exciting race of the week but just looking at bits of value out there and think Concertista for the Mares Novice could be worth a couple of quid at 10s (bet365). Ran to within a head of winning the race this year on her first and only start over hurdles, and surely Mullins will be aiming her at this again? Gypsy Island does look impressive but had the one run over hurdles and got beaten before returning to bumpers for the rest of the season.

Like is said, not the most exciting race to be talking about, especially not at this stage, but what do people think as a bit of an ante post play?
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Welcome to the forum.

An interesting angle.... my guess would be you'd get bigger than 10/1 at some point during the season as 'sexier' types are talked up...

If she makes it into the first Mullins stable tour then perhaps not... but there are 40 horses more likely for him to mention.

Chante Neige being one....?



A nice angle to keep an eye on though, but 10/1 is short enough now when we're not sure she'd be even in the top 10 mares Mullins has to fire at the race (10 might be a bit far...)
 
Kevloaf said:
Welcome to the forum.

An interesting angle.... my guess would be you'd get bigger than 10/1 at some point during the season as 'sexier' types are talked up...

If she makes it into the first Mullins stable tour then perhaps not... but there are 40 horses more likely for him to mention.

Chante Neige being one....?



A nice angle to keep an eye on though, but 10/1 is short enough now when we're not sure she'd be even in the top 10 mares Mullins has to fire at the race (10 might be a bit far...)
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I agree with this Kev.

She’s 10s because we’ve seen her. But we all know it’s much more likely he’s got a better one hidden away. He had supposedly better ones last year but never got them out. Even if there’s nothing for this season, last years options such as Chante Neige will likely get out this time with a years growth in them too.

I couldn’t back Concertista at 10/1 with counterfeit.
 
Good points, just looking for an angle away from the big races... Too much time on my hands I think!

Just on Chante Neige has anybody heard any updates?
 
I’ve managed to find some time to start compiling my 2019/2020 shortlist and decided to start with my less obvious candidates. Below are six from left field:

King Roland - Harry Fry - Albert Bartlett - 33/1

Arrived with Harry Fry after winning an English PTP for the Lacey’s. Won on Bumper debut in a performance that screamed ‘notebook’ despite an average field. Went on to win again in more workmanlike fashion and avoided the major spring festivals. Based on his two performances he seems like a relentless galloper and given his size and background, I can see him ending up over staying trips this season. The Albert Bartlett is always a tricky race to predict before the season starts but I’d want him onside before he makes his hurdles debut. The 33/1 with 365 is good enough for me.

The Big Getaway - Willie Mullins - Albert Bartlett - 33/1

An expensive purchase out of the Irish PTP scene for powerful connections. Ran in two bumpers finishing runner up both times, the second of which was at the Punchestown festival and the small field would not have helped him (the form is decent though). The Big Getaway is a HUGE horse so I’m not too worried that he was unsuccessful in his Bumpers. On breeding and running style he’s another I feel will end up over staying trips and his huge stride should devour the Cheltenham Hill if he’s good enough to line up. I’ll go a step further and say he’ll be lining up in the RSA the year after too.

Reserve Tank - Colin Tizzard - RSA - 33/1

He would not have been in too many notebooks prior to the Cheltenham Festival but he should be now. Finished the season with big wins at Aintree and Punchestown over two and a half miles but he looks like he could be a stayer to me. Because he has not run over 3 miles over hurdles, the ante post prices for him favour the JLT (16/1) but if you watch the races and read/listen to the interviews, I think stepping up in trip is a definite option for him and therefore I want him for the RSA. He’s a two time Grade 1 winner and with a trainer who knows how to win at Cheltenham. I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake as with Lostintranslation last year and run over the shorter JLT distance and get tapped for speed again. The price for the RSA of 33/1 is one of the best ante post prices you’ll find this season.

Longhouse Poet - Martin Brassil - Ballymore - 33/1

Whilst I don’t blindly follow the same connections to repeat festival successes, I think Martin Brassil could have a chance to do so in the Ballymore. Longhouse Poet won a Punchestown festival Bumper over 2m 2f beating an expensive Mullins/Ricci hot pot in the process. He looks to have the right blend of speed and stamina and I’m a big fan of his sire, Yeats. He won his PTP comfortably at odds on and although the form has not been tested much, the third has come out and won a PTP since.

Master Debonair - Colin Tizzard - Supreme or Ballymore - 50/1 for both

After running well in two early season Cheltenham Bumpers in quick times, I championed his cause for Festival success. He was disappointing on the day and didn’t show his true running as he was far too keen throughout. He went to Aintree and ran fifth in their Bumper but was not really involved in the finish. I’m going to stand by his early season form and also throw in that he was schooled over hurdles last year as it was being considered then. He’s wonderfully bred and, ignoring the festival run, relished the Cheltenham hill in his previous visits. He beat the Cheltenham Champion Bumper third (Thyme Hill) when winning his listed Bumper so the form from earlier in the season stacks up. Based on breeding I’m unsure of his trip as my instincts say Ballymore but Tizzard mentioned the Supreme in an interview. His price of 50/1 reflects his end of season form so I’m happy with the added value.

Eldorado Allen - Colin Tizzard - Arkle or JLT - 50/1 for both

Produced one of the best jumping performances by a novice hurdler last year but his season was ended due to injury. I can’t find any updates on if he will go chasing or not but his jumping ability and scope would lead me to think he will. He had a big reputation last year and due to his injury, he never featured at the business end of the season to know how good he actually is. At 50/1 I’m prepared to chance that his debut was only the start of bigger things to come.

All prices with Bet365 for cash out purposes.
 
TJW1990 said:
Good points, just looking for an angle away from the big races... Too much time on my hands I think!

Just on Chante Neige has anybody heard any updates?
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Back in training, but not sure which trainer with
 
Nice one Jackie, glad you like Reserve Tank, because I liked Sams Profile @ 40's for the RSA and that one has close form ties with RT, from Punchestown.
 
Nice looking shortlist JM.

Very much agree with the Reserve Tank price too, certainly hard to find 33/1 about any dual grade 1 novice winner and very sound logic regarding the target
 
Might Bite "has some interesting plans in the offing for him". Back hurdling?
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I’ve managed to find some time to start compiling my 2019/2020 shortlist and decided to start with my less obvious candidates. Below are six from left field:

King Roland - Harry Fry - Albert Bartlett - 33/1

Arrived with Harry Fry after winning an English PTP for the Lacey’s. Won on Bumper debut in a performance that screamed ‘notebook’ despite an average field. Went on to win again in more workmanlike fashion and avoided the major spring festivals. Based on his two performances he seems like a relentless galloper and given his size and background, I can see him ending up over staying trips this season. The Albert Bartlett is always a tricky race to predict before the season starts but I’d want him onside before he makes his hurdles debut. The 33/1 with 365 is good enough for me.

The Big Getaway - Willie Mullins - Albert Bartlett - 33/1

An expensive purchase out of the Irish PTP scene for powerful connections. Ran in two bumpers finishing runner up both times, the second of which was at the Punchestown festival and the small field would not have helped him (the form is decent though). The Big Getaway is a HUGE horse so I’m not too worried that he was unsuccessful in his Bumpers. On breeding and running style he’s another I feel will end up over staying trips and his huge stride should devour the Cheltenham Hill if he’s good enough to line up. I’ll go a step further and say he’ll be lining up in the RSA the year after too.

Reserve Tank - Colin Tizzard - RSA - 33/1

He would not have been in too many notebooks prior to the Cheltenham Festival but he should be now. Finished the season with big wins at Aintree and Punchestown over two and a half miles but he looks like he could be a stayer to me. Because he has not run over 3 miles over hurdles, the ante post prices for him favour the JLT (16/1) but if you watch the races and read/listen to the interviews, I think stepping up in trip is a definite option for him and therefore I want him for the RSA. He’s a two time Grade 1 winner and with a trainer who knows how to win at Cheltenham. I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake as with Lostintranslation last year and run over the shorter JLT distance and get tapped for speed again. The price for the RSA of 33/1 is one of the best ante post prices you’ll find this season.

Longhouse Poet - Martin Brassil - Ballymore - 33/1

Whilst I don’t blindly follow the same connections to repeat festival successes, I think Martin Brassil could have a chance to do so in the Ballymore. Longhouse Poet won a Punchestown festival Bumper over 2m 2f beating an expensive Mullins/Ricci hot pot in the process. He looks to have the right blend of speed and stamina and I’m a big fan of his sire, Yeats. He won his PTP comfortably at odds on and although the form has not been tested much, the third has come out and won a PTP since.

Master Debonair - Colin Tizzard - Supreme or Ballymore - 50/1 for both

After running well in two early season Cheltenham Bumpers in quick times, I championed his cause for Festival success. He was disappointing on the day and didn’t show his true running as he was far too keen throughout. He went to Aintree and ran fifth in their Bumper but was not really involved in the finish. I’m going to stand by his early season form and also throw in that he was schooled over hurdles last year as it was being considered then. He’s wonderfully bred and, ignoring the festival run, relished the Cheltenham hill in his previous visits. He beat the Cheltenham Champion Bumper third (Thyme Hill) when winning his listed Bumper so the form from earlier in the season stacks up. Based on breeding I’m unsure of his trip as my instincts say Ballymore but Tizzard mentioned the Supreme in an interview. His price of 50/1 reflects his end of season form so I’m happy with the added value.

Eldorado Allen - Colin Tizzard - Arkle or JLT - 50/1 for both

Produced one of the best jumping performances by a novice hurdler last year but his season was ended due to injury. I can’t find any updates on if he will go chasing or not but his jumping ability and scope would lead me to think he will. He had a big reputation last year and due to his injury, he never featured at the business end of the season to know how good he actually is. At 50/1 I’m prepared to chance that his debut was only the start of bigger things to come.

All prices with Bet365 for cash out purposes.
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Ooh your'e a smooth operator JackieMoon !! , i reckon you could sell sand to the Arab's !!:highly_amused:.
Very nice case for all of those , I was looking at The Big getaway at the weekend , pencilled in for the Ballymore.
Reserve Tank Definitely on my Radar , but i was thinking of the L.i.t route ,so backed in the J.l.t .
Although i did put him in a multi early doors for the R.S.A . , El dorado allen somebody mentioned for the arkle .
but will hang on for that a while . deifinitely interested in the others.:encouragement:
 
BigChaang said:
Ooh your'e a smooth operator JackieMoon !! , i reckon you could sell sand to the Arab's !!:highly_amused:.
Very nice case for all of those , I was looking at The Big getaway at the weekend , pencilled in for the Ballymore.
Reserve Tank Definitely on my Radar , but i was thinking of the L.i.t route ,so backed in the J.l.t .
Although i did put him in a multi early doors for the R.S.A . , El dorado allen somebody mentioned for the arkle .
but will hang on for that a while . deifinitely interested in the others.:encouragement:
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I have to convince myself it’s a good bet first as I don’t like to waste darts - all part of my diligence process.

The Big Getaway is a real beast (17 hands I think) so I’m only really interested in the Albert Bartlett. Doesn’t mean he won’t run over shorter though as I’m wrong way more than I’m right :highly_amused:

It was actually me that mentioned Eldorado Allen in the Arkle thread but I added him on this list too as he’s one I’m keen on even if he stepped up in trip too.
 
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