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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

What is the opinion of a Buveur D’air and Sceau Royale ew double? I’d guess targets pretty much certain, and with all the guessing of what the other horses are going, might not be a bad slip to have come the day ( price wise I mean )
 
paz247 said:
What is the opinion of a Buveur D’air and Sceau Royale ew double? I’d guess targets pretty much certain, and with all the guessing of what the other horses are going, might not be a bad slip to have come the day ( price wise I mean )
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Did anyone mention Sceau Royal being tried up in trip?
 
If he gets beaten at 2 miles then they are going to up him.
 
Stuck a few free bets on Princess Vega in the Mares Novice hurdle @ 25/1.

It’s a market I’d normally leave well alone till next year, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense to have a play now (especially with free bets at double figure prices). The shape of the market is very competitive for August and I know plenty like Concertista and Gypsy Island who could be a complete weapon.

As Quevega's first daughter, Princess Vega going to Cheltenham would be such a wonderful story. She’s just as small as her mum, but appears to have inherited that steely determination as she found plenty for pressure when winning her maiden at Tramore. I’d describe that performance as workmanlike, and think Willie was being kind when he said ‘she was green as grass and didn’t know what was happening for the first mile and half’. Spot on, she had no clue for most the race but then it all clicked. Her strength in the finish (albeit not in deep company) turned what I thought was workmanlike into quite an impressive performance all things considered. There’s clearly plenty to work on but who else would you task with that job. Willie’s 6 wins with Quevega was phenomenal and Princess Vega’s win brought about some rare animation from Willie - ‘I got a big thrill out of that’. I just think this story has everything and I could happily follow it without a penny invested, but think at the prices its worth sticking a few quid on because she may be campaigned in a similarly sparing fashion.
 
Surprised Hills kept her at 33-1 so had a nibble a few months ago. After her win Mullins said that she would continue during the summer so wonder what changed, be interested to hear what comes out of the stable tour.
 
Bets So far:

To win any race

Envoi Allen 10 pts win 17/2
Rathhill 4 pt win 22/1
Shishkin 2pt win 28/1
Jon Snow 1pt win 22/1


Supreme

Malone Road 4pt win 20/1
Jon Snow 3pt win 33/1

Arkle
Rathhill 1pt win 33/1
Getaway trump 4 pt win 20/1

Champion hurdle
Beuveur Dair 2pt win 7/1

RSA
Dickie diver 2pt win 33/1

Champion Chase
Sceau Royal 2ptew 20/1

JLT
Birchdale 2pt win 33/1

Ryanair
Min 3pt win 12/1


Mares novice
The glancing queen 1pt win 20/1 (IVe heard Kingy is not ruling out running her against the boys so not sure about this one)
 
Champion Hurdle (coral)
Buveur D'air EW @ 8/1
Win 22/1

Very much, Sets the benchmark


Ryanair chase (hills)
Min* win @ 12/1

Huge chance and the right race


JLT chase* (hills)
Samcro win @16/1

Few confidence boosters in novice chases then back in the big time in this company.


Champion Chase (betfred)
Sceau Royal EW @ 20/1

Crack 2 miler, iv no doubt its his best trip,
given decent ground, he will be bang there at the last. Still waiting for him to make the running and go for it, from the off using his avcurate jumping and strong cruising speed to his benefit. Personally think this would be the making of him.


Mares novice hurdle (hills)
Lamarkise win @33/1

Was set to run in the spring juvenile, but has been given another year to mature, connections of klassical dream may have another live one as a novice.
 
After a poor Festival last year I changed tack and started much earlier than I have ever done in the 19 years I've been going. Primarily been building accas from the flat, cricket and football onto some Festival runners. For a small outlay it's been fun, although sunk around 10 points in losing accas so will be interesting to see how it plays out. Bets so far:

Supreme
Malone Road 22-1
Andy Dufresne 52-1* and 25-1

Arkle
Draconien 254-1* and 40-1
Rathhill 33-1

NHC
Carefully Selected 33-1

Ballymore
Envoi Allen 25-1*

RSA
Minella Indo 67-1* & 39-1*
Carefully Selected 254-1*

QM
Chacun Pour Soi 186-1*, 27-1, 25-1 and 10-1

JLT
Birchdale 33-1

Stayers
Paisley Park 50-1*
City Island 111-1* and 29-1

Mares Novice
Gypsy Island 40-1* and 25-1
Princess Vega 36-1

Gold Cup
Lostintranslation 16-1


Any Race
Malone Road 15-1
Andy Dufresne 17-1
Pic d'Orhy 27-1
Klassical Dream 30-1*
Saldier 22-1
Chacun Pour Soi 10-1
Carefully Selected 22-1
Minella Indo 15-1
Reserve Tank 34-1* and 15-1
Gypsy Island 17-1
Caryto Des Brosses 17-1
Mick Pastor 36-1

Multiples
Klassical Dream (CH), Chacun Pour Soi (QM) and Paisley Park 1,308-1
Klassical Dream (CH), Altior (QM) and Paisley Park 100-1
Klassical Dream and Envoi Allen (any race) 50-1
Klassical Dream (CH) and Lostintranslation (GC) 135-1
Klassical Dream, Envoi Allen and Chacun Pour Soi (Any race) 200-1
Klassical Dream (CH) and Man City (Handicap) 96-1
Santini (Ladbrokes Trophy) and Chacun Pour Soi 662-1
Santini (Ladbrokes Trophy and Gold Cup) 100-1 and 80-1
Birchdale (JLT) and Norwood (League 1 top scorer) 794-1*

* bets part of a winning multiple

Horses on the radar and looking to include in doubles/trebles:
Fly Smart
Thomas Darby
Dickie Diver
Dlauro
Emitom
Kemboy
Samcro
Honeysuckle
Battleoverdoyen
Chantry House
The Big Breakaway
Min
 
I watched a post race interview with Colin Tizzard last week where he briefly discussed changes made at his yard for this season, most notably a new gallops. He stated their old/traditional gallops had a steep incline which he felt was tiring some of his horses out before the finish resulting in some horses not seeing out their trip strongly. Their new gallops is different and focuses more on crushing speed (from memory??) which may result in different performances from some of his horses this season.
 
A 10 point loss to have that book is absolutely remarkable!
 
Positive update from Ben Pauling on Bright Forecast today saying he could be "exceptionally smart" novice chasing. I asked Nico de Boinville at the Lambourne Open Day in March what Novice chaser he was most looking forward to riding. Assuming he would say one of Nickys as that was the yard I was at (though knowing he wouldn't have JP's to choose) he very quickly replied Bright Forecast and was adamant he'd make a much better chaser and very excited by him. Been holding off backing him based on fancying a few in the market but may come round to adding him at some stage for the RSA

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&#55356;&#57287; Bright Forecast<br>&#55356;&#57287; Global Citizen<br>&#55356;&#57287; Le Breuil <br>&#55356;&#57287; Kildisart <br><br>An exciting 2019/2020 jumps season awaits <a href="https://twitter.com/benpauling1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@benpauling1</a>’s big guns! <a href="https://twitter.com/mickfitzg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@mickfitzg</a> <a href="https://t.co/JYEwfDVmG6">pic.twitter.com/JYEwfDVmG6</a></p>— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) <a href="https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1166760757599465472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 28, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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My Hollywood bet

Saldier 33/1 champion
Dickie Diver 25/1 Nat Hunt
Birchdale 25/1 JLT
King Roland 33/1 Albert Bartlett
 
Just a heads up I suggested dickie diver NH chase to Nicky he looked at me like I had two heads. I think he feels he’s way too classy for it. This was before the distance was reduced though, and we know the owner calls the shots so u never know.
 
Got Bright forecast added to hills any race market this morning , 20/1 22s with boost similar price to horses like Brewinupastorm.
 
Hi Chaps,

Hope you've all had a decent summer. Nice to see it getting busier on the Cheltenham front in here.
Also good to see Scooby is still having some input.

So if we had to make 1 bet now for Cheltenham …. For arguments sake of £100 where would it chaps ?
 
CUEMYCARD said:
Hi Chaps,

Hope you've all had a decent summer. Nice to see it getting busier on the Cheltenham front in here.
Also good to see Scooby is still having some input.

So if we had to make 1 bet now for Cheltenham …. For arguments sake of £100 where would it chaps ?
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Paisley Park at 7/2 looks a solid bet to be. Those at bigger prices, I'd be chancing Thomas Darby 25/1 for the Arkle.
 
CUEMYCARD said:
Hi Chaps,

Hope you've all had a decent summer. Nice to see it getting busier on the Cheltenham front in here.
Also good to see Scooby is still having some input.

So if we had to make 1 bet now for Cheltenham …. For arguments sake of £100 where would it chaps ?
Click to expand...

Depends on what you're after in terms of return CMC. If you want an acca for life changing money then I'd suggest a L31. You'll get ridiculous returns providing you don't pick a load of shorties and NR's mean the bet still stands so no worries if you lose a few legs. If I were doing a single bet I would either stick to the 'win any race' market with a Mullins horse like Min @ 8/1 so I'm winning nearly a grand, or I would go the complete opposite other way and pick a horse that's ridiculously overpriced. For me that horse is £50 EW on Battleoverdoyen @ 40/1 for the RSA.
 
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