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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

50% of my efforts are invested into looking at Mullins/Elliot/Henderson runners, because they win >50% of the races.

Bobby - also my focus - and higher win rate in grade1s last time I looked at it.
 
Bobby - love all that. I imagine if I did a sweep of every thread to see what cases and general consensus was, your staking so far would look like the 'template'. (In my head, as it's similar to how I started on here - more than one way to approach it though)

I've personally used a similar strategy to you before ... its ever evolving.

One of the things I do that I shouldn't is use my own bank rather than a specific betting bank. Since 2015 I'm 1530 pts up and have been lucky enough to pay for an engagement, wedding and honeymoon... but it does mean I don't have that amount to physically play with. I've also started to double my points, so technically 2 points last season is only 1 this, but that will mean my stake skyrocket so I'd be relying on continued 'weekend success' (which isn't guaranteed despite a positive curve).

Is be interested to know how others have managed an increase in stake though as it will help me for next season too
 
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Your stake should grow in line with your bank but it depends on the size of your stake. The bigger your stake the harder it is to get on. I'd like to bet £500 points but it's not realistic.
 
Only my third year doing ante post.

Main changes this year are:

Win only.

Any race market or 365.

Not afraid to go back in on a horse when it's shortened even though I have it at a bigger price.

Bigger stake, less horses.

Free bets on life changing multiples.

Concentrate more on Mullins/Elliott/Henderson.

Back previous festival winners.
 
boopa said:
Your stake should grow in line with your bank but it depends on the size of your stake. The bigger your stake the harder it is to get on. I'd like to bet £500 points but it's not realistic.
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I have to wait 24 hrs with WH to back a horse twice to get my required stake on. Makes no sense to me!
 
boopa said:
Your stake should grow in line with your bank but it depends on the size of your stake. The bigger your stake the harder it is to get on. I'd like to bet £500 points but it's not realistic.
Click to expand...

The slight issue I have in analysing it, is my 2018 profit is warped by the return at Cheltenham. Since April I'm 300 pts up, and have doubled stake in that time - but if it was that simple I'd only need to double through one more time and I could leave work. Sounds too good to be true :p

I'm around 5 years off though in my planning (although need plenty more thought) and much more convincing for my wife :highly_amused:
 
300 points is better than Hugh Taylor. 100's of people would pay a monthly subscription for that :cool:
 
boopa said:
300 points is better than Hugh Taylor. 100's of people would pay a monthly subscription for that :cool:
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You'd have to stake a HELLUVA lot more than Hugh Taylor does to get to that amount, so I'm not sure they would :)
 
Yeah all about the ROI, HT up to 1.46 last year...so 46p profit on the pound, he'll beat that again this year
 
Innoko said:
Only my third year doing ante post.

Main changes this year are:

Win only.

Any race market or 365.

Not afraid to go back in on a horse when it's shortened even though I have it at a bigger price.

Bigger stake, less horses.

Free bets on life changing multiples.

Concentrate more on Mullins/Elliott/Henderson.

Back previous festival winners.
Click to expand...

I’d have almost an identical strategy bar having no problem backing e/w at odds of 20’s plus but only with 365, 1/5 place terms is miserable with the rest of the bookies. Think bigger stakes on your strong fancies & less spread is very solid advice.

I’ve only two sizable investments at the minute and will probably top up on those over the next few months rather than look to make any more big uns. Get the research in (rewatch a lot of key racing you’d be amazed what you miss in real time) Go with your gut stand out choices & stick to your guns!
 
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SeanRock said:
I’d have almost an identical strategy bar having no problem backing e/w at odds of 20’s plus but only with 365, 1/5 place terms is miserable with the rest of the bookies. Think bigger stakes on your strong fancies & less spread is very solid advice.

I’ve only two sizable investments at the minute and will probably top up on those over the next few months rather than look to make any more big uns. Get the research in (rewatch a lot of key racing you’d be amawhat you miss first time out) go with your gut stand out choices & stick to your guns!
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Topofthegame and :confused: :)

I echo that sentiment, very sound strategy Innoko.

I'm still on less stake than this time last year but feel in a MUCH stronger position.

269 bets this time last season
146 this season
 
Kevloaf said:
Topofthegame and :confused: :)

I echo that sentiment, very sound strategy Innoko.

I'm still on less stake than this time last year but feel in a MUCH stronger position.

269 bets this time last season
146 this season
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...and Carefully Selected in the AB ;)
 
my take on antepost betting this far out -
Is that it's like trying to solve the jackpot round on catchphrase after one square has been revealed.

So at this stage of the season I'm just looking to try and get some horses on side at bigger prices than I think they should be based on all sorts of stuff, but mainly my considered opinion.
Stakes are generally smaller and prices bigger.
But my golden rule is that I must think that they have a chance of winning/placing.
Rarely though, are they the horse I would bet on if the race was tomorrow.
My objective is to have some lively runners on the day at big prices, so that I can then increase stakes into the NRNB phase and then much nearer the race when I've seen more and more evidence.
Looking to cover 2-4 horses (on average) for each race ideally.
 
Kevloaf said:
Topofthegame and :confused: :)

I echo that sentiment, very sound strategy Innoko.

I'm still on less stake than this time last year but feel in a MUCH stronger position.

269 bets this time last season
146 this season
Click to expand...

Be rude to not take Bet365 up on there generous Black Friday 25’s offer :devilish:
 
quevega said:
my take on antepost betting this far out -
Is that it's like trying to solve the jackpot round on catchphrase after one square has been revealed.

So at this stage of the season I'm just looking to try and get some horses on side at bigger prices than I think they should be based on all sorts of stuff, but mainly my considered opinion.
Stakes are generally smaller and prices bigger.
But my golden rule is that I must think that they have a chance of winning/placing.
Rarely though, are they the horse I would bet on if the race was tomorrow.
My objective is to have some lively runners on the day at big prices, so that I can then increase stakes into the NRNB phase and then much nearer the race when I've seen more and more evidence.
Looking to cover 2-4 horses (on average) for each race ideally.
Click to expand...

That all makes sense. I think you've commented before that we have a similar approach to ante post betting?

I definitely start to turn the screw after Christmas (NRNB) - this time of year is about trying to find the really big prices that could significantly shorten. I knoew FM has been shocked before at ther difference in stake I have pre Christmas compared to the time the Tuesday rolls around :highly_amused:

This is a good example of my strategy this far out....

Of my 146 bets, only 12 are less than 20/1

Laurina 12/1 CH
Commander of Fleet 13/1 any race
Cracking Smart 17.5/1 any race
The Storyteller 18/1`any race
Altior (Enable) 15.5/1
Tiger Roll 7/1
Black Op JLT 13/1 (wow thats a bad bet!)
Monalee 14/1
Min 18/1 ***exchanges
Penhill 9/1 8/1
Chante Neige 13/1 any race
Relegate 15/1 (another poor one)

Less than 10%, and that won't be changing.

18 pts in Non Runners too at this stage with Draconien out, Samcro and Laurina hurdling
 
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Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
...and Carefully Selected in the AB ;)
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I’m obviously as transparent as glass lads ;)

Also will be mostly concentrating on Willies novice hurdlers & predominantly Gordon’s novice chasers.

Wouldn’t swap Ruby over a hurdle or Davy over a fence for all the jocks in the underwear world!
 
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Kevloaf said:
That all makes sense. I think you've commented before that we have a similar approach to ante post betting?

I definitely start to turn the screw after Christmas (NRNB) - this time of year is about trying to find the really big prices that could significantly shorten. I knoew FM has been shocked before at ther difference in stake I have pre Christmas compared to the time the Tuesday rolls around :highly_amused:

This is a good example of my strategy this far out....

Of my 146 bets, only 12 are less than 20/1

Laurina 12/1 CH
Commander of Fleet 13/1 any race
Cracking Smart 17.5/1 any race
The Storyteller 18/1`any race
Altior (Enable) 15.5/1
Tiger Roll 7/1
Black Op JLT 13/1 (wow thats a bad bet!)
Monalee 14/1
Min 18/1 ***exchanges
Penhill 9/1 8/1
Chante Neige 13/1 any race
Relegate 15/1 (another poor one)

Less than 10%, and that won't be changing.

18 pts in Non Runners too at this stage with Draconien out, Samcro and Laurina hurdling
Click to expand...

Why is Black op at 13-1 - j.l.t. - a Bad bet for you Kev ??.
 
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