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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

Thanks all for the info on Bet365. I did quite a bit of arbing last year and with most horses losing with them I think I was showing a decent overall loss. But haven't really done that this year and have been getting the price on the Hugh Taylor tip a few times a week. Such is his strike rate the winnings have been going up. Really don't want this account restricted so will make sure I don't take the piss too much
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Thanks all for the info on Bet365. I did quite a bit of arbing last year and with most horses losing with them I think I was showing a decent overall loss. But haven't really done that this year and have been getting the price on the Hugh Taylor tip a few times a week. Such is his strike rate the winnings have been going up. Really don't want this account restricted so will make sure I don't take the piss too much
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I mean no offence but
I think arbers deserve to be restricted tbh
 
Scooby91 said:
I mean no offence but
I think arbers deserve to be restricted tbh
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Haha... none taken, I was doing it to raise funds for Cheltenham last year as didn't have anything to play with. That isn't the case this year as I had a very good Festival. As mentioned, I'm still claiming the free bets as that was a much more efficient way of building the bank than arbing which I did not find a particularly profitable use of my time.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Thanks all for the info on Bet365. I did quite a bit of arbing last year and with most horses losing with them I think I was showing a decent overall loss. But haven't really done that this year and have been getting the price on the Hugh Taylor tip a few times a week. Such is his strike rate the winnings have been going up. Really don't want this account restricted so will make sure I don't take the piss too much
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Following Hugh Taylor will get you restricted...
I made the mistake of doing so and now don't have the luxury of the Bet 365 "cash-out" option.
I learnt the hard way :sorrow:
 
Leman14 said:
Following Hugh Taylor will get you restricted...
I made the mistake of doing so and now don't have the luxury of the Bet 365 "cash-out" option.
I learnt the hard way :sorrow:
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Cheers, also good to know. That said I have been backing his tips reasonably regularly for the last few months and close to a couple of years on and off (at the advertised price). I wonder because my account was significantly down through the arbing they have given me more leeway. Anyway with Cheltenham in mind I really don't want to lose the cash out offer so will put the breaks on
 
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Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Cheers, also good to know. That said I have been backing his tips reasonably regularly for the last few months and close to a couple of years on and off (at the advertised price). I wonder because my account was significantly down through the arbing they have given me more leeway. Anyway with Cheltenham in mind I really don't want to lose the cash out offer so will put the breaks on
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I got away with it for a while, but was consistently getting the advised price (or close to it) so got restricted after about 6 months.
For some football bets, 365 will let me win up to £100, but for horses, it's £10 max win (and sometimes lower!)
 
Updated.


Gold cup
Al boum photo 36.0
Monalee 50.0
Shattered love 65.0
Top notch 240.0

Supreme*
Annamix 20/1 ew 20/1
Quick grabim 50/1 ew
Eldorado allen 33/1
Tornado flyer 25/1


Ballymore
Blackbow 25/1 EW
Carefully selected 25/1
Tornado flyer 25/1

Arkle*
Getabird 20/1
Mengli khan 20/1*

RSA*
Santini 21/1 ( due to a double)
Next destination 10/1 (free bet)
Kilbricken storm 33/1

QMCC
Sceau royal 28/1 EW

Champion bumper
Malone road 28/1 any race
Envoi allen 33/1
Asterion forlonge 33/1

JLT
claimantakinforgan 33/1 25/1 EW

Ryanair
Min 12/1

Stayers
Penhill 15/2

Triumph*
Adjali 33/1 EW 25/1 EW

Mares novice*
Chante neige 12/1 13/1
Colreevy 25/1


ANY RACE

fenta des obeaux 33/1*

farid 33/1*

Allaho 20/1*

never adapt 33/1*

adjali 20/1*

Rhinestone 25/1*

Dento des obeaux 25/1*

On the blind side 16/1*

Delta Work 16/1*

Blackbow 13/1

Cilaos emery 28/1

Cracking smart 16/1

Blow by blow 18/1

Champagne classic 16/1

The worlds end 28/1


*************
Added min Ryanair with 365.
 
See Bun Doran has been introduced at 25/1 for the Grand Annual which is the first thing that entered my mind when he won at the weekend. Been raised from 139 to 147 which still seems a perfectly reasonable mark for this race (last two winners 150 and 147)... but have a feeling he might have blown his mark for March there.

Have a feeling he might disappoint on winter ground so wont be backing him just yet... but he's definitely on my watchlist for this race, especially if he can come down a few pounds.
 
Jackie (or anyone else who has the Henderson stable tour from a week or so back) - did Gunnersby or Style De Vole get any mention? I saw they worked alongside Buveur D'Air at Newbury earlier today. Probably nothing in it but caught my interest that they were the 2 horses and maybe readying them for a go at the course soon perhaps? (Henderson usually sends a good one to Newbury for the Winter Festival)

Champion Hurdle hero Buveur D’Air was also out in action at Newbury, given a much quicker gallop alongside promising young stablemates Style De Vole and Gunnersby.
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I know Style De Vole is only a 3 year old but couldn't see anything on Gunnersby
 
jono said:
Jackie (or anyone else who has the Henderson stable tour from a week or so back) - did Gunnersby or Style De Vole get any mention? I saw they worked alongside Buveur D'Air at Newbury earlier today. Probably nothing in it but caught my interest that they were the 2 horses and maybe readying them for a go at the course soon perhaps? (Henderson usually sends a good one to Newbury for the Winter Festival)



I know Style De Vole is only a 3 year old but couldn't see anything on Gunnersby
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Style De Vole
Style De Gardes year younge half brother, he's one our French advisers were mad about as he won his flat maiden incredibly impressively. He could easily make a high class juvenile hurdler
 
Added this treble EW:

Bumper - Envoi Allen @ 33/1
Triumph - Adjali @ 33/1
Supreme - Quick Grabim @ 33/1

Boosted to 58955/1
 
Been some interesting thoughts on this topic here, so my two cents on strategy:
- When betting ante-post, opposed to NRNB and on-the-day punting, I don't like going over 3pts stake due to risk of injury or different races. Max stake in any race would be 5pts and I generally would only ever do this when I know the makeup of the final field.
- No interest in betting on shorter than 5/1 ante-post. I play ante-post to take advantage of large prices that may shorten, either because they are novices on an upward curve, there are reasons to forgive a previous bad season/run or because I disagree with the market view of likely target. Once NRNB comes into play I relax this slightly but you need to be putting down significant chunks of cash for the shortening of 4/1 into 9/4 to drive a real return. Completely respect those who operate this way, not my style.
- These days a large majority of my bets where novices are yet to prove ability (e.g before debut/2nd run), or where the target is in the air, will be with Bet365 to give me the safety net of cash out. This is unless there is a significantly higher price I can get elsewhere to compensate for the increase in risk. Like some others on here, I could be hurt by 365 deciding to revoke this.
- Most Cheltenham races I will look to have around 2-3 darts to throw come the day. Hopefully one of these will be a market fav that has significantly shortened since I bet, then a saver or two depending on the size of the field. Again, 365 allow me to build up more than I would want running for me at this stage (e.g. this years Arkle) till I learn more. I find the more horses you have running for you it actually takes away from enjoying the race - just my opinion.
- The Any Race market is a new strategy for me this year based off this forum so looking forward to seeing how it works out. I'm utilising this mainly where I'm really unsure what the trip will be or how the trainer is going to shuffle the pack. It's nice to have the cover of a handicap, but I wouldn't use it for this purpose.
- I haven't done any stats on this but anecdotally I seem to have done better over the first two days of the Festival compared to the final two. My belief is they have been more predictable in recent years/they are slightly more weighted to novice events which are usually less competitive. I like to focus my efforts here, and the Supreme is my favourite puzzle to crack (and it sure is one this year).
- >50% of my efforts are invested into looking at Mullins/Elliot/Henderson runners, because they win >50% of the races.
- That said, unless I'm already on at a nice price, I will look for angles to take on the head of the market. There's more surprises than certainties in horse racing.

-------------------------------------

Supreme
Annamix @20/1 win 2pt
Blackbow @25/1 win 1pt
Quick Grabim @50/1 ew 0.5pt

Arkle
Kalashnikov @14/1 win 1pt
Mengli Khan @20/1 win 1pt
Draconian @20/1 ew 1pt
Getabird @25/1 ew 0.5pt
Lalor @33/1 ew 0.5pt

Champion Hurdle
Samcro @7/1 win 1pt
Laurina @14/1 win 1pt
Summerville Boy @14/1 win 1pt
If The Cap Fits @33/1 ew 1pt ; @36/1 ew 0.5pt
Labaik @40/1 win 0.5pt

National Hunt Chase
Bacardys @33/1 ew 0.5pt

Ballymore
Commander of Fleet @22/1 win 1pt ; @20/1 ew 1pt
Blackbow @25/1 win 1pt
Didtheyleaveuoutto @50/1 ew 0.5pt

RSA
Santini @14/1 win 1pt ; @12/1 ew 0.5pt
Topofthegame @28/1 ew 0.5pt
Vinndication @33/1 ew 0.5pt (365)

Champion Chase
Great Field @25/1 win 1pt ew 1pt
Saint Calvados @33/1 ew 0.5pt

Champion Bumper
Envoi Allen @33/1 win 1pt ew 0.5pt
Energumene @50/1 ew 1pt
Mt. Leinster @40/1 ew 0.5pt ; @25/1 win 1pt ; @20/1 win 1pt

JLT
Vinndication @33/1 win 1pt ew 0.5pt

Mares Novice
Chante Neige @13/1 win 1pt

Ryanair
Monalee @16/1 win 1pt ; @14/1 ew 0.5pt

Stayers
Sam Spinner @36/1 ew 0.5pt

Albert Bartlett
Carefully Selected @20/1 win 1pt

Triumph
Never Adapt 20/1 win 1pt ew 0.5pt
Adjali @33/1 win 1pt ew 0.5pt
Lethal Steps @33/1 ew 0.5pt

Gold Cup
Al Boum Photo @33/1 ew 0.5pt
Road to Respect @25/1 ew 0.5pt

ANY RACE
Champagne Classic @20/1 win 1pt
Black Op @8/1 win 1pt
OK Corral @27/1 win 1pt
Vinndication @22/1 win 1pt
Carefully Selected @15/1 win 1pt
Farid @36/1 win 1pt
Pym @22/1 win 1pt
Cracking Smart @17/1 win 1pt
Blow by Blow @18/1 win 1pt
The Worlds End @28/1 win 1pt
Delta Work @17/1 win 1pt
Lostintranslation @22/1 win 1pt
Cilaos Emery @28/1 win 1pt
 
Interesting to see how people bet. Do you have a separate bank for antepost? Are your points a % of your bank? Some of you have 50% of your bank on already, that would make me very nervous. As someone who lives off their betting I am very protective of my bank. I bet 1-5 points but each point is only 0.1% of my bank. Not to mention I wouldn't be able to get on with 1% points.
 
boopa said:
Interesting to see how people bet. Do you have a separate bank for antepost? Are your points a % of your bank? Some of you have 50% of your bank on already, that would make me very nervous. As someone who lives off their betting I am very protective of my bank. I bet 1-5 points but each point is only 0.1% of my bank. Not to mention I wouldn't be able to get on with 1% points.
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Currently have around 60% of my real money bank on. Last year I had close to 90% before non-runner no bet. Despite losing 25% of my stake before the start of the Festival things turned out well, although I think I was a bit fortunate with the one's that stayed injury free and went on to win. Realised last year there are still plenty of opportunities at NRNB so am aiming to be no more than 75% of my bank before NRNB. I don't bet on the day.

Just adding I try to dilute the risk with free bets and backing multiple horses in certain races.
 
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boopa said:
Interesting to see how people bet. Do you have a separate bank for antepost? Are your points a % of your bank? Some of you have 50% of your bank on already, that would make me very nervous. As someone who lives off their betting I am very protective of my bank. I bet 1-5 points but each point is only 0.1% of my bank. Not to mention I wouldn't be able to get on with 1% points.
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I'm in this bracket, but it has stood me well in previous years and see no reason why I would change something that works, for me anyway.

I must admit, a bit like many on here, I always convince myself I won't get as involved every year in the ante post side of it, but that never happens, so I am just going to accept it as being part of my make up and strategy when it comes to this festival.

I guess I build up a fair portfolio so that come race day I can sit back and not worry about any further bets, I may do the odd stupid full card multi, but for very low stakes.

I am currently so far ahead on stakes placed than I have ever been before, though this is mostly down to some fairly nice bets won, and not what I would class as being out my own pocket, I would not class these as being part of my original bank, because had I not won they would not be on anyway.

I feel I have been more sensible/selective this year as well, made more use of the 'any race' market, use Bet365, which has been a huge help as have managed to get out of some sticky spots by using the cash out option already.

I think everyone has a different idea of how to play the ante post game, but ultimately you have to do what works for you, the past 6 seasons have been kind (can't remember any further back tbh), so for me it makes no sense in changing tact now.
 
boopa said:
Interesting to see how people bet. Do you have a separate bank for antepost? Are your points a % of your bank? Some of you have 50% of your bank on already, that would make me very nervous. As someone who lives off their betting I am very protective of my bank. I bet 1-5 points but each point is only 0.1% of my bank. Not to mention I wouldn't be able to get on with 1% points.
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I don't even bet to points tbh. I'll only work it out for the purpose of not writing what real money ammounts im staking on here. And that takes a while due to the random nature of my stakes being uneven.

Money wise iv prob staked around or atleast 50% of what I will in total i canr be too accurate on that as no set budget. Some will likely need to be cashed though. And money re used.
 
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Scooby91 said:
I don't even bet to points tbh. I'll only work it out for the purpose of not writing what real money ammounts im staking on here. And that takes a while due to the random nature of my stakes being uneven.

Money wise iv prob staked around or atleast 50% of what I will in total i canr be too accurate on that as no set budget. Some will likely need to be cashed though. And money re used.
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Is that 50% of your total bank or 50% of a festival bank?
 
boopa said:
Interesting to see how people bet. Do you have a separate bank for antepost? Are your points a % of your bank? Some of you have 50% of your bank on already, that would make me very nervous. As someone who lives off their betting I am very protective of my bank. I bet 1-5 points but each point is only 0.1% of my bank. Not to mention I wouldn't be able to get on with 1% points.
Click to expand...

I keep a separate "bank" for ante-post/NRNB plays where 1pt is roughly 1%. I'm not strict to this, but it's a helpful line in the sand to draw where I know there are too many bets down. Browsing over my list I'm at about 60% which is probably over where I want to be, but quite a few of those are likely cash outs + it's hard not to get carried away!

On the day I just have some fun bets with the handicaps and then obviously try and land some life-changers.
 
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