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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

BigChaang said:
Why is Black op at 13-1 - j.l.t. - a Bad bet for you Kev ??.
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Just not big enough odds for me to have backed it. Target not yet confirmed. I think I did it when Samcro was confirmed hurdling but have given too much weight to his hurdles form at this stage.

Is just one that isn't going to be a lot shorter... might end up fine but I've bet it too early.
 
Updated.


Gold cup
Al boum photo 36.0
Monalee 50.0
Shattered love 65.0
Top notch 240.0

Supreme*
Annamix 20/1 ew 20/1
Quick grabim 50/1 ew
Eldorado allen 33/1
Tornado flyer 25/1


Ballymore
Blackbow 25/1 EW
Carefully selected 25/1
Tornado flyer 25/1

Arkle*
Getabird 20/1
Mengli khan 20/1*

RSA*
Santini 21/1 ( due to a double)
Next destination 10/1 (free bet)
Kilbricken storm 33/1

QMCC
Sceau royal 28/1 EW

Champion bumper
Malone road 28/1 any race
Envoi allen 33/1
Asterion forlonge 33/1
Shadow rider 33/1

JLT
claimantakinforgan 33/1 25/1 EW

Ryanair
Min 12/1
Top notch 28/1

Stayers
Penhill 15/2

Triumph*
Adjali 33/1 EW 25/1 EW 20s any race
Farid 33/1 any race
Fenta des obeaux 33/1 any race
Never adapt 33/1 any race

Mares novice*
Chante neige 12/1 13/1
Colreevy 25/1


ANY RACE


Allaho 20/1*

Rhinestone 25/1*

Dento des obeaux 25/1*

On the blind side 16/1*

Delta Work 16/1*

Blackbow 13/1

Cilaos emery 28/1

Cracking smart 16/1

Blow by blow 18/1

Champagne classic 16/1

The worlds end 28/1
 
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Alloho the only one I'm not familiar with there... 20s? Guessing a French triumph contender?
 
Kevloaf said:
Alloho the only one I'm not familiar with there... 20s? Guessing a French triumph contender?
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Novice hurdler. With mullins owned by cheveley park.
2nd at auteuil in a listed race on debut
 
Moon Racer - Novice chasing tomorrow.
one word - Unbelievable:highly_amused:
 
Scooby91 said:
Novice hurdler. With mullins owned by cheveley park.
2nd at auteuil in a listed race on debut
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Cheers. Will get it tracked

Viking Flagship said:
They've got him qualified for the Pertemps and I expect it's now all about preserving his hurdles mark
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Probably. Will be over bet regardless though :highly_amused:
 
I’d like to open up some debate that does not concern betting or odds directly. This season the PtP purchase prices ha e gone through the roof and I’ve been keeping an eye on things more closely than previous seasons. The normal route for ex-pointers is to have a season in bumpers before engaging in a novice Hurdle campaign and then whatever future sphere afterwards. Even when a PtP recruit is deemed a future chaser, they still have a season in bumpers as they fill their frame and gain valuable experience. I’m not sure if it’s just this season or I have been oblivious to it previously, but it seems like a few expensive point to point purchases are skipping their bumper season and going straight over hurdles. The three that I am aware of (there could be more) are as follows:

Trevelyn's Corn 5yo (£400K) starts off in a novice Hurdle tomorrow for Paul Nicholls

Feel My Pulse 4yo (£330K) confirmed by Gordon Elliott that he will go hurdling this season.

Champagne Platinum 4yo (£250k) has been entered up over hurdles by Nicky Henderson but yet to take up an engagement.

Now I’d like to gauge opinion from the learned folk on here with regards to how you’d interpret this decision:

1.) Would you back the above horses or consider them during their Hurdle season, knowing they’ve skipped bumpers?

2.) Are they being expedited into their Hurdle campaign because:
a) they are very talented and can be successful this season
or
b) they are just getting the Hurdle season out the way quickly so that they can start chasing as early as possible?

Answers on a postcard.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I’d like to open up some debate that does not concern betting or odds directly. This season the PtP purchase prices ha e gone through the roof and I’ve been keeping an eye on things more closely than previous seasons. The normal route for ex-pointers is to have a season in bumpers before engaging in a novice Hurdle campaign and then whatever future sphere afterwards. Even when a PtP recruit is deemed a future chaser, they still have a season in bumpers as they fill their frame and gain valuable experience. I’m not sure if it’s just this season or I have been oblivious to it previously, but it seems like a few expensive point to point purchases are skipping their bumper season and going straight over hurdles. The three that I am aware of (there could be more) are as follows:

Trevelyn's Corn 5yo (£400K) starts off in a novice Hurdle tomorrow for Paul Nicholls

Feel My Pulse 4yo (£330K) confirmed by Gordon Elliott that he will go hurdling this season. If he indeed does come out. They might have changed plan with him and brought in column of fire.

Champagne Platinum 4yo (£250k) has been entered up over hurdles by Nicky Henderson but yet to take up an engagement.

Now I’d like to gauge opinion from the learned folk on here with regards to how you’d interpret this decision:

1.) Would you back the above horses or consider them during their Hurdle season, knowing they’ve skipped bumpers?

2.) Are they being expedited into their Hurdle campaign because:
a) they are very talented and can be successful this season
or
b) they are just getting the Hurdle season out the way quickly so that they can start chasing as early as possible?

Answers on a postcard.
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I'd have no problem backing them. I wouldn't back trevelyans corn up in grade over hurdles though.

2 is a good question for trevelyans corn the answer would be B. He wouldn't be what you may expect from a €400,000 horse at home on the gallops, you'd never pick him out.

For feelmypulse I'd say A. But I haven't seen his homework. They may have changed there mind with him. And brought in column of fire

Champagne platinum not a clue, but they did the same with on the blind side and santini.
 
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I wonder if , Because it is a big financial outlay , with a relatively short shelf life , It's about getting as much
back in prize money from these horses. ??.
 
Updated.*


Gold cup
Al boum photo 36.0 33/1 EW
Monalee 50.0
Shattered love 65.0
Top notch 240.0
Road to respect 18/1 EW

Supreme*
Annamix 20/1 ew 20/1
Quick grabim 50/1 ew
Eldorado allen 33/1
Tornado flyer 25/1


Ballymore
Blackbow 25/1 EW
Carefully selected 25/1
Tornado flyer 25/1
My way 33/1

Arkle*
Getabird 20/1
Mengli khan 20/1*

RSA*
Santini 21/1 ( due to a double)
Next destination 10/1 (free bet)
Kilbricken storm 33/1

QMCC
Sceau royal 28/1 EW

Champion bumper*
Malone road 28/1 any race*
Envoi allen 33/1
Asterion forlonge 33/1
Shadow rider 33/1

JLT
claimantakinforgan 33/1 25/1 EW

Ryanair*
Min 12/1*
Top notch 28/1
Politologue 20/1

Stayers
Penhill 15/2

Triumph*
Adjali 33/1 EW 25/1 EW 20s any race
Farid 33/1 any race*
Fenta des obeaux 33/1 any race
Never adapt 33/1 any race*

Mares novice*
Chante neige 12/1 13/1
Colreevy 25/1


ANY RACE


Allaho 20/1*

Rhinestone 25/1*

Dento des obeaux 25/1*

On the blind side 16/1*

Delta Work 16/1*

Blackbow 13/1

Cilaos emery 28/1

Cracking smart 16/1

Blow by blow 18/1

Champagne classic 16/1

The worlds end 28/1
 
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Defi bleu has his 3 runs on the board now. Theres a lot more to come from him over 3 miles. (Pertempts qualifier) (martin pipe) or a 3m handicap and on to the bartlett. There'll be a big plan for him. he'll make a smashing 3 mile chaser.
 
Scooby91 said:
Defi bleu has his 3 runs on the board now. Theres a lot more to come from him over 3 miles. (Pertempts qualifier) (martin pipe) or a 3m handicap and on to the bartlett. There'll be a big plan for him. he'll make a smashing 3 mile chaser.
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Agree with this. Think he may well need every yard of the 3 mile trip over hurdles to Win in the Spring (though the Martin Pipe over 2m4 would still be if interest as its always won by a real stayer - Blow by Blow, Don Poli, Noble Endeavour, Killuktagh Vic) but very exciting horse.
 
jono said:
Agree with this. Think he may well need every yard of the 3 mile trip over hurdles to Win in the Spring (though the Martin Pipe over 2m4 would still be if interest as its always won by a real stayer - Blow by Blow, Don Poli, Noble Endeavour, Killuktagh Vic) but very exciting horse.
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Theres deffinately a plan. He had the 1 run last year and 2 quick ones this year (1st 2 delibarately over the wrong trip) for a reason. He was the sale topper as a store. And rip flemenshill, had a huge reputation going into his ptp


*************

“He’s a horse for next year to go chasing and I’d say he probably even wants three miles at this stage of his life. The further he went the better he got, and he jumped well," reflected Elliott in the aftermath.
 
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I found a betslip printout, today, from a previous festival. Altior - supreme nov hurdle @ 20-1. Cheered me up.!.:).
 
Annamix in the Supreme...
Politilogue in the Ryanair...
Bristol De Mai in the Gold Cup...
White Moon in the 4 miler?
Asterion Forlonge in the bumper?
Flawless Escape in the JLT?
Fagan in the Foxhunters?

What do they all have in common?
 
Kevloaf said:
Annamix in the Supreme...
Politilogue in the Ryanair...
Bristol De Mai in the Gold Cup...
White Moon in the 4 miler?
Asterion Forlonge in the bumper?
Flawless Escape in the JLT?
Fagan in the Foxhunters?

What do they all have in common?
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They're all grey
 
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