Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Lobos]

But surely guys it’s not the actual figure (the 4 in the 4/1) but the % that price might reduce to? If both horses (and it’s possible, with both trainers referring to each as special) have very good starts to their novice campaigns unbeaten, both horses say for example go off evens money - a shortening of 400%. But if you can get a 20/1 ante post shot now down to 5/1 come the day,we’d all be excited??? And yet, the mark up you’re getting 8 months in advance is still the same - 400%?? It’s not just about the price, it’s about the % extra you feel you might get in advance. And I think that’s often well overlooked.

That's far too clever for me in a Friday night ! Lol !

 

[EnvoyAllen]

That's far too clever for me in a Friday night ! Lol !

I just feel Mr Lobos that it’s very easy to look at a short single price and think it’s crazy to take it 8 months in advance of the event. But that price might well be 4 times greater than the horse might go off on the day. And with all kinds of factors to take in, if both these horses go their preferred routes,and have good starts to their seasons, it’s highly conceivable they’ll go off evens at least.

It’s about the perceived percentage gains. Bookmakers make their millions by using analysts to gain the percentages in their favour, I’m always surprised more punters don’t go down a more methodical route. And I am of the belief both of these horses might prove,in 8 months time, that their ante post price on the 11th July 2020 were actually steals.

 

[EnvoyAllen]

I took 6/4 in the Summer of 2011 that Usain Bolt to win the 100m at the London Olympics a year later. My work colleagues called me crazy for taking a short price a year in advance.

But why, I wondered? He was surely, if fit, going to go off odds on the day?

1/6 was his winning world record time.

Sometimes a short price can still be an exceptionally good price. But it’s knowing when. That’s the difficult bit!

 

[Lobos]

I took 6/4 in the Summer of 2011 that Usain Bolt to win the 100m at the London Olympics a year later. My work colleagues called me crazy for taking a short price a year in advance.

But why, I wondered? He was surely, if fit, going to go off odds on the day?

1/6 was his winning world record time.

Sometimes a short price can still be an exceptionally good price. But it’s knowing when. That’s the difficult bit!

The 'if fit' bit is the 'unknown' and the reason you got 6/4 but no debating it was a fabulous AP gamble.

 

[Spectre]

The ‘if fit’ bit is definitely relevant if it’s the only bet you have. When the risk is spread across multiple horses the risk to me is perfectly acceptable.

And As I’ve said several times, there is also the option of cash out and laying back for a profit on Betfair. With all four of Easysland, Epatante, Envoi Allen, and Shishkin you could have already locked in a profit and left some running if you so wished. Not all horses need to be still running for you in March.

 

[EnvoyAllen]

The ‘if fit’ bit is definitely relevant if it’s the only bet you have. When the risk is spread across multiple horses the risk to me is perfectly acceptable.

And As I’ve said several times, there is also the option of cash out and laying back for a profit on Betfair. With all four of Easysland, Epatante, Envoi Allen, and Shishkin you could have already locked in a profit and left some running if you so wished. Not all horses need to be still running for you in March.

Exactly Spectre. And that’s the way I always look at it. I won’t lie here - I had 100 points on Envoi Allen to win the Ballymore this year, taking the unbelievably generous odds of 10/1 in early October. Two reasons - firstly (and obviously) I genuinely believed the Ballymore was his preferred route and that he’d win the race, but secondly, and I feel this is perhaps just as important, if he ends up winning his maiden (which he did comfortably), he’ll get clipped to half those 10/1 odds. But the bookies went further and went 5/2 after his maiden win. So 4 months in advance of Cheltenham, I had already made a healthy cash out profit.
It’s just about being clear about the horses that are well priced in advance and you can be as certain as you can that they’ll shorten through the winter.

Al Boum Photo is a classic example. He’s 5/1 generally at the moment. He’s very likely to run just 1 race on New Year’s Day as his prep before the Gold Cup. He’s more than likely to win that, and then he go’s 3/1. You know he’s likely to go 3/1 before you take the 5/1, so the 5/1 though months in advance, is a genuinely generous price.

But of course, it’s just my opinion. Nothing more.

 

[archie]

October is one thing because he's in full training and 10/1 was generous and a prime candidate for serious cutting after his maiden. July and 4/1 is a completely different equation.

As for ABP, unless his main competitors fall by the wayside he'll still be 5/1 in December. Why would you tie up money and risk a training accident in the intervening 5 months?

That said, of course you're entitled to your opinion and to bet as you wish.

 

[Kevloaf]

Exactly Spectre. And that’s the way I always look at it. I won’t lie here - I had 100 points on Envoi Allen to win the Ballymore this year, taking the unbelievably generous odds of 10/1 in early October. Two reasons - firstly (and obviously) I genuinely believed the Ballymore was his preferred route and that he’d win the race, but secondly, and I feel this is perhaps just as important, if he ends up winning his maiden (which he did comfortably), he’ll get clipped to half those 10/1 odds. But the bookies went further and went 5/2 after his maiden win. So 4 months in advance of Cheltenham, I had already made a healthy cash out profit.
It’s just about being clear about the horses that are well priced in advance and you can be as certain as you can that they’ll shorten through the winter.

Al Boum Photo is a classic example. He’s 5/1 generally at the moment. He’s very likely to run just 1 race on New Year’s Day as his prep before the Gold Cup. He’s more than likely to win that, and then he go’s 3/1. You know he’s likely to go 3/1 before you take the 5/1, so the 5/1 though months in advance, is a genuinely generous price.

But of course, it’s just my opinion. Nothing more.

If you had 100 times your normal stake in October ante post, are you sure that what you're classing as 1 point is your normal stake?



For example, if £10 is 1 point, you put £1000 on ante post on one selection?

 

[EnvoyAllen]

If you had 100 times your normal stake in October ante post, are you sure that what you're classing as 1 point is your normal stake?



For example, if £10 is 1 point, you put £1000 on ante post on one selection?

Envoi Allen is the only horse I was interested in, is all I would suggest. I had an unbelievably poor Cheltenham with my selections in 27 races, but the outlay and focus on 1 horse (I kept pumping on after my initial 100 point outlay) meant I enjoyed the best Cheltenham I’m ever likely to. Though I’d like to do even better next year

 

[Lobos]

Envoi Allen is the only horse I was interested in, is all I would suggest. I had an unbelievably poor Cheltenham with my selections in 27 races, but the outlay and focus on 1 horse (I kept pumping on after my initial 100 point outlay) meant I enjoyed the best Cheltenham I’m ever likely to. Though I’d like to do even better next year ��

Hugely dangerous having a grand on and banking on one horse but you have got massive balls. Hats off to you. I would have shit myself ! Good luck again next year because I know you have rolled a nice chunk of that profit up on him again !

 

[The King Pimm]

Hugely dangerous having a grand on and banking on one horse but you have got massive balls. Hats off to you. I would have shit myself ! Good luck again next year because I know you have rolled a nice chunk of that profit up on him again !

I love your honesty Lobos :highly_amused: I would have been the same, all in on one horse all festival!! I thought Envoi was beat turning the bend in the Ballymore, I thought The Big Getaway wasn’t for catching. Credit to him he found his gears when he needed too. I’m not sure he’s nailed on for the Marsh yet. I think there will some some significant improvement to come from a few maturing novice chasers. The big Getaway being one

 

[Lobos]

I love your honesty Lobos :highly_amused: I would have been the same, all in on one horse all festival!! I thought Envoi was beat turning the bend in the Ballymore, I thought The Big Getaway wasn’t for catching. Credit to him he found his gears when he needed too. I’m not sure he’s nailed on for the Marsh yet. I think there will some some significant improvement to come from a few maturing novice chasers. The big Getaway being one

Agree. TBG was the only one to really put it up to Envoi who is a superstar. He is a massive player in what looks to be the RSA . It'll be interesting if Mullins keeps him and Monkfish apart. Still have an inkling that Monkfish may go Stayers or even NHC. We'll see.

 

[Kevloaf]

I wonder if The Big Getaway will be the Patrick Mullins / Willie Mullins horse for the NH Chase.

Found a few clips of Patrick really talking him up and saying that he's such a big horse (biggest in the yard) and that he's just a galloper. Patrick said he wanted him in the Albert Bartlett last year.

It's obvious he's a chasing type given his size and with the Albert Bartlett winner Monkfish in the yard, there is an easy alternative in the RSA for Paul Townend to want to be on?


Given it is July this isn't time to bet on it, but he's 33/1 and it's certainly crept onto my radar.

Aione and Monkfish are both Ricci horses in the betting, a perfectly reasonable case was made that Aione could end up here which I don't dispute. The others in the oddschecker list at the moment are Energumene, Next Destination, Janidil, Five O'Clock and Lord Royal. Not saying any of them can't be the one either, but The Big Getaway has better form than any of them so far on his 3rd in the Ballymore (excluding Monkfish who it's pretty obvious will be aimed at the RSA)

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I wonder if The Big Getaway will be the Patrick Mullins / Willie Mullins horse for the NH Chase.

Found a few clips of Patrick really talking him up and saying that he's such a big horse (biggest in the yard) and that he's just a galloper. Patrick said he wanted him in the Albert Bartlett last year.

It's obvious he's a chasing type given his size and with the Albert Bartlett winner Monkfish in the yard, there is an easy alternative in the RSA for Paul Townend to want to be on?


Given it is July this isn't time to bet on it, but he's 33/1 and it's certainly crept onto my radar.

Aione and Monkfish are both Ricci horses in the betting, a perfectly reasonable case was made that Aione could end up here which I don't dispute. The others in the oddschecker list at the moment are Energumene, Next Destination, Janidil and Lord Royal. Not saying any of them can't be the one either, but The Big Getaway has better form than any of them so far on his 3rd in the Ballymore (excluding Monkfish who it's pretty obvious will be aimed at the RSA)

Don't say that Kev, that would hurt if he ended up there :highly_amused:

Not sure how many Ballymore 3rd's have gone on to run in the NH Chase? I'd imagine an extremely small amount, if any at all, but this is Willie, he does things others don't think of.

 

[Kevloaf]

Don't say that Kev, that would hurt if he ended up there :highly_amused:

Not sure how many Ballymore 3rd's have gone on to run in the NH Chase? I'd imagine an extremely small amount, if any at all, but this is Willie, he does things others don't think of.

Ummm.... probably is a small amount, but Rathvinden is one :highly_amused:

RSA is more likely, but I'd want the other race covered personally!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Ummm.... probably is a small amount, but Rathvinden is one :highly_amused:

RSA is more likely, but I'd want the other race covered personally!

Ah yeah, 4 years later though :highly_amused:

I feel like I'm going to be talked into backing him for the NH Chase, because I really like him, and the 12/1 'any race' is not a price I think is value at all.

 

[Kevloaf]

Ah yeah, 4 years later though :highly_amused:

I feel like I'm going to be talked into backing him for the NH Chase, because I really like him, and the 12/1 'any race' is not a price I think is value at all.

He's 25/1 with 365, so it's not the riskiest cover bet you'll have to make?

If he's going to end up a player in the RSA, he's certain to also shorten for the NH chase, and you can cash out if the target becomes clear?



I might back him for both, not done anything yet...I agree I wouldn't want the 12/1 as the alternative.

 

[The King Pimm]

The Big Getaway won’t be running in the NH, I think he’ll be in the Marsh for a re match with EA unless Monkfish or Aione get injured and he goes RSA. The NH is a B list race and the fields are getting weaker by the year but I do think Latest Exhibition may head to it. It’s a more realistic race of winning than the hot looking RSA. Paul Nolan nearly won it with Discorama and has a better horse in Latest Exhibition. Not the best priced at present but I think he’s a genuine contender compared to others.

 

[Kevloaf]

The Big Getaway won’t be running in the NH, I think he’ll be in the Marsh for a re match with EA unless Monkfish or Aione get injured and he goes RSA. The NH is a B list race and the fields are getting weaker by the year but I do think Latest Exhibition may head to it. It’s a more realistic race of winning than the hot looking RSA. Paul Nolan nearly won it with Discorama and has a better horse in Latest Exhibition. Not the best priced at present but I think he’s a genuine contender compared to others.

The Big Getaway doesn't look like he wants a drop in trip to me, but you never know


Latest Exhibition will be interesting wherever he ends up, very likeable. I don't think he's lacking pace either but he clearly stays well enough to not need to come down in trip. Will be routing for him!

 

[nortonscoin200]

I wonder if The Big Getaway will be the Patrick Mullins / Willie Mullins horse for the NH Chase.

Found a few clips of Patrick really talking him up and saying that he's such a big horse (biggest in the yard) and that he's just a galloper. Patrick said he wanted him in the Albert Bartlett last year.

It's obvious he's a chasing type given his size and with the Albert Bartlett winner Monkfish in the yard, there is an easy alternative in the RSA for Paul Townend to want to be on?


Given it is July this isn't time to bet on it, but he's 33/1 and it's certainly crept onto my radar.

Aione and Monkfish are both Ricci horses in the betting, a perfectly reasonable case was made that Aione could end up here which I don't dispute. The others in the oddschecker list at the moment are Energumene, Next Destination, Janidil and Lord Royal. Not saying any of them can't be the one either, but The Big Getaway has better form than any of them so far on his 3rd in the Ballymore (excluding Monkfish who it's pretty obvious will be aimed at the RSA)

Interesting proposition and could well happen. They'll obviously start him off over shorter trips and the NH Chase could well come into the equation if he doesn't look as though he's got the speed to trouble the best in the Marsh/RSA. He'd obviously be a big player.

Wouldn't surprise me if none of the top 10 market leaders quoted on Oddschecker for the NH Chase turn up. It's a classic example of Saxon Warrior's recent post showing how the early ante-post markets often gets it completely wrong for Festival races. I think there's more punter value to be had in this race than any other at the Festival based on current odds.

You could take a speculative plunge on half a dozen long shots at each way prices and have a decent chance of coming out with a healthy profit.

Perhaps the Forum should pick a NH Chase squad called "Out In The Long Grass" Here are some possible contenders:

The Big Getaway 25-1
Aione 33-1 (I realise many already on board this one)
The Bosses Oscar 33-1
Commander of Fleet 33-1
Janidil 33-1 *
Galvin 33-1 *
Cobblers Way 40-1
Sempo 50-1

*I should declare an interest - already backed these two.

Just like to take slight issue with Kev over The Big Getaway having the best form for this race of Willie's horses. Janidil's 11-length 5th in a very strong AB is surely comparable form with the NH Chase in mind.

Quiz question: Name the horse who finished 5th in the 2019 AB and won at this year's Festival.