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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

I am buildng my Cheltenham AP book around Shishkin for the Arkle. Really think the horse is the real deal and providing it jumps has pounds in hand. Does anybody think there is a danger it will go Marsh?
 
Lobos said:
Hugely dangerous having a grand on and banking on one horse but you have got massive balls. Hats off to you. I would have shit myself ! Good luck again next year because I know you have rolled a nice chunk of that profit up on him again !
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It very much depends on what your appetite for risk is and if the potential rewards are worth the outlay when there is a high chance of zero return. Envoy seems similar to me in that hes happy to take a high risk, high reward approach by basing Cheltenham around a couple of horses. I had seven winners and nine seconds at this years festival but ended up with zero as my strategy is based around multiples. However, I had Paisley Park running for me for £24k which is a position I would be delighted to take every year even if I end up with years where I get zero. Same happened two years ago where Cause of Causes would have won me £32k and Apples Jade £20k rolling off various multiples but neither won. 2019 I won £8k.

2021 For me will hang on Shiskin and Envoi and whilst this is risky having so much staked on them already, it is educated risk. A 26.5/1 double currently seems like a gift to me, obviously barring any injuries, and well worth the risk that either of them doesnt take to fences.
 
Cooldaddy said:
I am buildng my Cheltenham AP book around Shishkin for the Arkle. Really think the horse is the real deal and providing it jumps has pounds in hand. Does anybody think there is a danger it will go Marsh?
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I think there's little chance of him going to the Marsh unless he get's turned over a couple of times over 2 miles. If he does you'd be offloading him anyway.
 
Think TBG 25/1 with cash out is a very decent bet. Personally think he'll end up in RSA and Mullins has already said he may have to take on Envoi again in that race so that's as close as him giving away a target this early as you'll ever get ! He's 12/1 TWAR which is too short for me but I think I've covered him in a bet off the Sky RAB page.
 
Vautour said:
It very much depends on what your appetite for risk is and if the potential rewards are worth the outlay when there is a high chance of zero return. Envoy seems similar to me in that hes happy to take a high risk, high reward approach by basing Cheltenham around a couple of horses. I had seven winners and nine seconds at this years festival but ended up with zero as my strategy is based around multiples. However, I had Paisley Park running for me for £24k which is a position I would be delighted to take every year even if I end up with years where I get zero. Same happened two years ago where Cause of Causes would have won me £32k and Apples Jade £20k rolling off various multiples but neither won. 2019 I won £8k.

2021 For me will hang on Shiskin and Envoi and whilst this is risky having so much staked on them already, it is educated risk. A 26.5/1 double currently seems like a gift to me, obviously barring any injuries, and well worth the risk that either of them doesnt take to fences.
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You are a very brave man. I've been there before.
 
Pegging an entire Festival on a novice chaser is a huge risk this far out.
 
archie said:
Pegging an entire Festival on a novice chaser is a huge risk this far out.
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I agree.

Fair play for having the cojones to do it, but it certainly wouldn't be for me. I'd be on edge every day relying on one or two horses to make or break a festival.
 
Kevloaf said:
The Big Getaway doesn't look like he wants a drop in trip to me, but you never know :)


Latest Exhibition will be interesting wherever he ends up, very likeable. I don't think he's lacking pace either but he clearly stays well enough to not need to come down in trip. Will be routing for him!
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Agree latest exhibition relaxed manner will suit going chasing think he’s a big player in the RSA can’t see them going NHC myself
 
Vautour said:
It very much depends on what your appetite for risk is and if the potential rewards are worth the outlay when there is a high chance of zero return. Envoy seems similar to me in that hes happy to take a high risk, high reward approach by basing Cheltenham around a couple of horses. I had seven winners and nine seconds at this years festival but ended up with zero as my strategy is based around multiples. However, I had Paisley Park running for me for £24k which is a position I would be delighted to take every year even if I end up with years where I get zero. Same happened two years ago where Cause of Causes would have won me £32k and Apples Jade £20k rolling off various multiples but neither won. 2019 I won £8k.

2021 For me will hang on Shiskin and Envoi and whilst this is risky having so much staked on them already, it is educated risk. A 26.5/1 double currently seems like a gift to me, obviously barring any injuries, and well worth the risk that either of them doesnt take to fences.
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I’m with you on this one Mr Vautour - I’m on the double very early on, with all risks included. If the Arkle and Marsh were ran a fortnight after Cheltenham finished, you’d have to say the double would look a 3/1 shot at best, not the 26.5/1 shot it is currently. And that’s what we’re betting on - that form, that level of consistency, the hope they go those routes,and of course, their class which we hope and believe they have. When Henderson & De Boinville mention (on more than 1 occasion) Shishkin reminds them of Altior,and has gears, I tend to listen. Those two don’t really deal with hyperbole. As for Envoi, he might well be the best horse in training right now. With that in mind, I’m willing to take a +25/1 shot on both of them winning their races next year. Which hopefully will be the Arkle & Marsh.
 
It's not not any of us on here think the Shiskin/Envoi double is a bad un as we are all, to a man, on it I suspect. It's just the thought of just pinning your hopes on that one bet. Do hope it pays off though !!
 
Lobos said:
It's not not any of us on here think the Shiskin/Envoi double is a bad un as we are all, to a man, on it I suspect.
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Nope. Absolutely not for me until October at the earliest.
 
EnvoyAllen said:
I’m with you on this one Mr Vautour - I’m on the double very early on, with all risks included. If the Arkle and Marsh were ran a fortnight after Cheltenham finished, you’d have to say the double would look a 3/1 shot at best, not the 26.5/1 shot it is currently. And that’s what we’re betting on - that form, that level of consistency, the hope they go those routes,and of course, their class which we hope and believe they have. When Henderson & De Boinville mention (on more than 1 occasion) Shishkin reminds them of Altior,and has gears, I tend to listen. Those two don’t really deal with hyperbole. As for Envoi, he might well be the best horse in training right now. With that in mind, I’m willing to take a +25/1 shot on both of them winning their races next year. Which hopefully will be the Arkle & Marsh.
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Having put it up on here at 41/1 on 14th March.... I wouldn't say I'm mad keen to add it at 26.5/1 now personally...

If I hadn't got the 41/1, I'd be waiting until September I think... just for positive updates, and confirmation they're going where we think they're going (CHASING).
 
Kevloaf said:
Having put it up on here at 41/1 on 14th March.... I wouldn't say I'm mad keen to add it at 26.5/1 now personally...

If I hadn't got the 41/1, I'd be waiting until September I think... just for positive updates, and confirmation they're going where we think they're going (CHASING).
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....unless you are on the TWAR double of course!
 
In response to chat regarding Envoi Allen going for the RSA:

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15676-aalowe9-Antepost-Diary-2021/page2

The RSA being a more natural progression is an interesting point. I wonder if the Marsh/JLT had been around longer whether more Gold Cup winners/places would have gone that route? I think they would have and going forward it'll become more common (although the RSA will always remain the most obvious)

My thoughts on Envoi Allen though, are that he's proven to be an exception. Whilst most horses that end up Gold Cup horses will be slow old boats, it stands to reason they'll be running over 3m earlier in their career (taking in races like the RSA/NH Chase). Envoi Allen, if reaching the heights, is going to be a legend of the sport - up there with the likes of Kauto Star with more than enough speed to compete at shorter trips in his novice chase season.



In the JLT/Marsh's short history, Sir Des Champs won and placed in a Gold Cup, Vautour won and is the moral Gold Cup winner (haha), Bristol De Mai placed in both races.

People fancy Melon for the Gold Cup, Defi Du Seuil for a King George, Faugheen we all feel could get further too...... it's not a race I'd be slamming for producing future staying types anyway, and saying "it's not done often" is true however given the points I've brought up is no reason to draw a line through it as evidence as to why Envoi Allen wouldn't run there?


I don't think Envoi Allen will struggle at 3 miles myself, however I don't think anything will be able to beat him over the intermediate trip, whereas I wouldn't say STAMINA is his best asset. The RSA has been won by some fucking plodders as well, it's not utilising his best assets, and as the easier option, that's why I think he'll go for the Marsh Novice Chase.
 
Yes, I'd fully agree with that summation. The further you go up in trip the more you blunt a horses speed.

Envoi Allen stikes me as more a Kauto Star than a Denman. Kauto Star was fully effective between 2 miles and 3 over his career, but you'd have to say that despite winning two Gold Cups he was probably at his most vulnerable over the Gold Cup course and distance.

Envoi Allen could possibly be good enough to win any one of the three novice chases, but surely his sweet spot is the Marsh right now, so why would you go to either of the other two races, where for different reasons he'd likely have a harder race? There will still be Aintree and/or Punchestown to consider, where I suspect he'll be stepped up to three miles for the first time.

If he wins the Marsh (or either of the other two races) as expected, he'll immediately be a very warm order for the Gold Cup. And whilst I'll want him onside as quickly as possible, I will have a half a mind that the additional trip of the Gold Cup has been the undoing of many class acts over the years. So essentially I'll be looking to take 'a position' on him rather than being 'all in' as I am this year.
 
My thoughts on Envoi Allen are........I really have no idea where he will end up. Do I think he'll end up in a chase next season .....yes. Do I think he'll end up in the Arkle....no. Do I think he'll end up in the RSA.......not sure. Do I think he'll end up in the Marsh....not sure. Not that helpful I know.
 
Have to agree with everything Kev has said.

He clearly has a lot of speed, proven on the track. Utilise that to its best effect while you can imo, which would be the Marsh with a view of them stepping up after or even during next season.

He’s been bought to be a staying chaser, the usual cliche, but no reason not to use his best attributes while they last.
 
Spectre said:
Yes, I'd fully agree with that summation. The further you go up in trip the more you blunt a horses speed.

Envoi Allen stikes me as more a Kauto Star than a Denman. Kauto Star was fully effective between 2 miles and 3 over his career, but you'd have to say that despite winning two Gold Cups he was probably at his most vulnerable over the Gold Cup course and distance.

Envoi Allen could possibly be good enough to win any one of the three novice chases, but surely his sweet spot is the Marsh right now, so why would you go to either of the other two races, where for different reasons he'd likely have a harder race? There will still be Aintree and/or Punchestown to consider, where I suspect he'll be stepped up to three miles for the first time.

If he wins the Marsh (or either of the other two races) as expected, he'll immediately be a very warm order for the Gold Cup. And whilst I'll want him onside as quickly as possible, I will have a half a mind that the additional trip of the Gold Cup has been the undoing of many class acts over the years. So essentially I'll be looking to take 'a position' on him rather than being 'all in' as I am this year.
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I agree the Marsh looks the perfect trip for him at this stage of his career - so why go further?

And if it all goes to plan a tilt at the 2022 Gold Cup - when EA will be aged eight - must surely be the plan unless he proves in the meantime there's no way he would get the trip.

With that in mind I've had a 2.5pt nibble at Skybet's special double: 40-1 Envoi Allen to win any novice chase at next year's festival and the Gold Cup in 2022.

Got a feeling this bet's already been discussed previously but it strikes me as pretty decent value.

Ok, it's a long wait to get paid out (and I'm not getting any younger) .

But I'd love to have a financial reason as well as the pure joy of cheering home Envoi Allen as he achieves immortality by becoming the first horse to win the Champion Bumper, A Festival novice hurdle, novice chase and Gold Cup.

If he wins at the Festival next year what price will he be for the Gold Cup this time next year - my guess is 4-1 tops.

By then all this year's Gold Cup field will be at least ten - apart from Delta Work and Real Steel. Champ will also be ten and no ten-year-old has won the Gold Cup since Cool Dawn in 1998.

So - gazing into the crystal ball - Envoi Allen's main rivals could be Minella Indo (9 by then), Allaho (8) and whatever young kids on the block emerge between now and March 2022.
 
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