• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Handicap Shortlist - Cheltenham 2020

Was pretty taken with the Highest Sun thought he could be one for one of the handicaps and also think Scudamore could be readying Northern Beau for the Grand Annual. We know he can ready one for that race like he did with Next Sensation.
 
Big Bucks said:
Think Gavin Lynch mentioned it last month and money came from it? (or robith can take the credit)
Click to expand...

I suspect he was more behind the market move than me!

I had breakfast with some people from the racing post and they said he was the big office chat
 
Last edited:
robith said:
I suspect he was more behind the market move than me!

I had breakfast with some people from the racing post and they said he was the big office chat
Click to expand...

If you don’t mind me asking: have you placed a bet on Ilikedwayurthinkin? Do you think 12-1 is worth a punt? What did the Racing Post guys have to say? Any insight from connections i.e. what was the cause of the office chat?
 
12-1 seems very short for a handicapper.

There were around half a dozen other horses that ran in the same race the last day (never mind any other races between now and the festival) that could equally be considered long term handicap plots.

Buildmeupbuttercup
Ciel de Niege
Chosen Mate
Mister Blue Sky
Hearts are trumps
And even the winner Janidil is only rated 144 now so could easily win another.

So I'd say Not worth it. At all.

It's not like favourites in Handicaps at cheltenham do that well either, and backing at 12-1 now, you'd want him to be favourite on the day for sure.
 
Kim Muir - Fitzhenry @ 36/1 EW (Boosted with Hills)
Trainer: Paul Nolan
Owner: JP McManus

Glenloe has opened at 12/1 for this and is already being tipped up for the Kim Muir by Gavin Lynch. Glenloe will no doubt continue to shorten as the murmurings of an infamous ‘JP Plot’ grow. Favourites have a terrible record in this race and I have no interest of taking 12/1 now, so I’ll be looking elsewhere.

I am drawn to one of JP’s other horses in Fitzhenry at a big price. Fitzhenry is a mark of consistency over fences with form figures of 532112334523 over the last 3 seasons. He seems to save his best for big field handicaps and came 3rd to beat subsequent Kim Muir winner in Any Second Now at the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last year. He goes for the same race this year as a stepping-stone to the Kim Muir (hopefully). His 2nd in the Troytown to a very good Chris's Dream was more than just eye-catching, and he jumped, travelled and cruised into the race before making a mistake at the last that took the wind out his sails.

Pre-Troytown Nolan (James) comments – ‘last year he was 3rd in the Paddy Power and the season before he won that big novice handicap at Naas, and he was 2nd in the novice final in Navan, so he’s already won some nice pots, hopefully along the way he can be very competitive in those handicaps, like again Paddypowers and the Troytown on Sunday’.

The handicapper raised him to 137 from 134, so providing he doesn't piss up over Xmas then I'd say he’d be nailed on to be given a rating < 145 and be aimed here. I am sure whoever is riding him in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown will know the plan :).

Post-Troytown (26th) Nolan (Paul) comments - “I’ll have a chat to Frank Berry and see what he wants to do, but I’d imagine he’ll be entered in all those staying handicap chases and we’ll see where we go. Ground doesn’t seem to make a lot of difference to him. He was third in the Paddy Power Chase in Leopardstown last year on good ground and ran well on soft ground the other day – and I’d say he wouldn’t mind it even softer.”

I think connections know they’ve got an improving chaser on their hands here. He was well supported before the Troytown which I like for any JP ‘outsider’ and connections were rewarded with a good 2nd, and his form figures when favourite read 12112 :devilish:. It was only last year the Irish Field were suggesting a Grade 1 success could be well deserved and whilst I there’s no chance that happens, I wouldn’t put the Kim Muir beyond the reach of this very well-bred and improving 7-year-old. The stats folk will like him for the Kim Muir too:

10/12 achieve their best RPR in their two runs before Cheltenham. (He seems on an upward curve 134,137.....)
17 from last 20 ran over at least 3 miles last time. (He is entered over 3m at Xmas & done well over 3m4f).
Other than a beginners or an ordinary novice, 9 of the last 10 hadn't won a chase that season. (2nd so far and I don't think he'll be in it to win it over Xmas).
10 from the last 13 no more than 11 runs over fences. (Fitzhenry has run more, so did Cause of Causes for JP)
8 of the last 19 had never raced at Cheltenham before. (Neither has Fitzhenry).

I can only see the price of Fitzhenry for this going one way, with or without Glenloe heading the market. He's a JP horse that’s shown loads of stamina, has excellent breeding, jumps well, not ground dependent, steadily improving, consistent over fences, loves big field handicaps and is part of a Nolan team that will no doubt secure the services of a top amateur, and he’s nearly 40/1. Even at this relatively early stage I think that's a terrific each way bet, and I hope all roads lead to the Kim Muir in March.
 
Interesting shout Charlie, a lot of Nolans are being punted as he's bounced back into form this year after a bad year or two....Not sure what that means for Cheltenham but could explain the support when 2nd behind Chris's Dream
 
Really great read Charlie.

Will do a little bit of research myself, but will likely add as well.
 
charlie said:
Kim Muir - Fitzhenry @ 36/1 EW (Boosted with Hills)
Trainer: Paul Nolan
Owner: JP McManus

Glenloe has opened at 12/1 for this and is already being tipped up for the Kim Muir by Gavin Lynch. Glenloe will no doubt continue to shorten as the murmurings of an infamous ‘JP Plot’ grow. Favourites have a terrible record in this race and I have no interest of taking 12/1 now, so I’ll be looking elsewhere.

I am drawn to one of JP’s other horses in Fitzhenry at a big price. Fitzhenry is a mark of consistency over fences with form figures of 532112334523 over the last 3 seasons. He seems to save his best for big field handicaps and came 3rd to beat subsequent Kim Muir winner in Any Second Now at the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last year. He goes for the same race this year as a stepping-stone to the Kim Muir (hopefully). His 2nd in the Troytown to a very good Chris's Dream was more than just eye-catching, and he jumped, travelled and cruised into the race before making a mistake at the last that took the wind out his sails.

Pre-Troytown Nolan (James) comments – ‘last year he was 3rd in the Paddy Power and the season before he won that big novice handicap at Naas, and he was 2nd in the novice final in Navan, so he’s already won some nice pots, hopefully along the way he can be very competitive in those handicaps, like again Paddypowers and the Troytown on Sunday’.

The handicapper raised him to 137 from 134, so providing he doesn't piss up over Xmas then I'd say he’d be nailed on to be given a rating < 145 and be aimed here. I am sure whoever is riding him in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown will know the plan :).

Post-Troytown (26th) Nolan (Paul) comments - “I’ll have a chat to Frank Berry and see what he wants to do, but I’d imagine he’ll be entered in all those staying handicap chases and we’ll see where we go. Ground doesn’t seem to make a lot of difference to him. He was third in the Paddy Power Chase in Leopardstown last year on good ground and ran well on soft ground the other day – and I’d say he wouldn’t mind it even softer.”

I think connections know they’ve got an improving chaser on their hands here. He was well supported before the Troytown which I like for any JP ‘outsider’ and connections were rewarded with a good 2nd, and his form figures when favourite read 12112 :devilish:. It was only last year the Irish Field were suggesting a Grade 1 success could be well deserved and whilst I there’s no chance that happens, I wouldn’t put the Kim Muir beyond the reach of this very well-bred and improving 7-year-old. The stats folk will like him for the Kim Muir too:

10/12 achieve their best RPR in their two runs before Cheltenham. (He seems on an upward curve 134,137.....)
17 from last 20 ran over at least 3 miles last time. (He is entered over 3m at Xmas & done well over 3m4f).
Other than a beginners or an ordinary novice, 9 of the last 10 hadn't won a chase that season. (2nd so far and I don't think he'll be in it to win it over Xmas).
10 from the last 13 no more than 11 runs over fences. (Fitzhenry has run more, so did Cause of Causes for JP)
8 of the last 19 had never raced at Cheltenham before. (Neither has Fitzhenry).

I can only see the price of Fitzhenry for this going one way, with or without Glenloe heading the market. He's a JP horse that’s shown loads of stamina, has excellent breeding, jumps well, not ground dependent, steadily improving, consistent over fences, loves big field handicaps and is part of a Nolan team that will no doubt secure the services of a top amateur, and he’s nearly 40/1. Even at this relatively early stage I think that's a terrific each way bet, and I hope all roads lead to the Kim Muir in March.
Click to expand...

Great read Charlo
Good to see Nolan yard running well .
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
If you don’t mind me asking: have you placed a bet on Ilikedwayurthinkin? Do you think 12-1 is worth a punt? What did the Racing Post guys have to say? Any insight from connections i.e. what was the cause of the office chat?
Click to expand...

I have 1pt on any race at 25/1. I think the 12/1 is an awful price tbh and I'd wait for a target to firm up - I think Martin Pipe myself but you never know.

There was no insight from connections at all - I was out with some sales guys - but they said a decent judge in the office had said "that's the martin pipe winner", so not any real substance to it
 
Sire Du Berlais has a Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier entry on 28th December at Leopardstown, so may be continuing on the hurdles front again. OR 150, c/w 145 when he won at the Festival. Don’t expect him to win, just do enough, if he runs next week!
 
Sire Du Berlais has a Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier entry on 28th December at Leopardstown, so may be continuing on the hurdles front again. OR 150, c/w 145 when he won at the Festival. Don’t expect him to win, just do enough, if he runs next week!

So good I wrote it twice :highly_amused:
 
Hamptonfox said:
Sire Du Berlais has a Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier entry on 28th December at Leopardstown, so may be continuing on the hurdles front again. OR 150, c/w 145 when he won at the Festival. Don’t expect him to win, just do enough, if he runs next week!

So good I wrote it twice :highly_amused:
Click to expand...

Plot horse? Have him TWAR already, might go in again
 
Big Bucks said:
Vintage clouds 50s for Ultima
Click to expand...

quevega said:
I like that one too.
Just a case of wether i wait for nrnb
Click to expand...

That's a very big and tempting price in my opinion.


With the National probably the likely target again it does temper my enthusiasm but 2nd in the race off what is already a very similar mark (1 lb higher currently?) ....


...and to be fair the weights will be out anyway so another big Ultima run would do no harm.



I liiiiiiiike it.
 
Does anyone know what the handicap rating qualification is for the Fred Winter and Martin Pipe hurdle handicaps? I’m just wondering if ‘It Sure Is’ might in if it goes to the Festival?
 
The King Pimm said:
Does anyone know what the handicap rating qualification is for the Fred Winter and Martin Pipe hurdle handicaps? I’m just wondering if ‘It Sure Is’ might in if it goes to the Festival?
Click to expand...

FW - 128 to 134.
MP - ratings from about 135 to 143
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom