Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Spectre]

Why wouldn't you use Altior to compare him against at the same stage? Surely it's relative to look back at previous Supreme winners and their Arkle prices.

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Generally yes, but what I meant and didn't explain very well is that we don't yet have evidence how good the Supreme was. I think it will turn out to be a good one though, and I think Shishkin comes out of his novice hurdle season with just as much credit as Altior.

Any direct comparisons I'd make to Altior in the future would be when Shishkin jumps a fence and through his development in his novice season.

In essence I'm agreeing with you but giving you my overall thoughts on it.

 

[Kevloaf]

Shishkin is not a particularly slick hurdler (not sure if it's a respect thing, whereby a fence may bring out more improvement on that front), then you have a horse like Abacadabras, who is extremely slick and quick over his hurdles. I think Shishkin done well to win at all, given the trouble in running also.

I can, personally, upgrade his performance, especially if some shrewdies on here believe Abacadabras to have genuine Champion Hurdle prospects.

Hopefully - one of the early related double ideas relies on that being a strong race:

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15744-Related-Doubles-(ideas)

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Confirmation from Paul Nicholls that Pic D’Orhy goes chasing

 

[DeeBee]

Given both Shiskin and EA are 4/1 now.. what would be the guess of the price after they make their chase debuts (assuming they do and win in the manner that is expected)

 

[Spectre]

Assuming they win in a manner expected I'd say 2/1 best, and likely 6/4 very quickly afterwards when more money comes.

 

[archie]

It would depend on when they run and what has already run. Hard to see either of them out before November so you have over 3 months to sit and sweat if you leap in now and take a price that should be much the same for at least half that period.

 

[Kevloaf]

Given both Shiskin and EA are 4/1 now.. what would be the guess of the price after they make their chase debuts (assuming they do and win in the manner that is expected)

2/1?

The bookies may clip them when confirmed chasing, clip them upon entry and clip them after a win if they are average. If they look good we could be looking at sub 2/1?



The 4/1 price assumes they'll make a good debut... I don't think I'll get involved after debut before NRNB.

You'd want to take a price just before the stable tours as I think they'll get clipped then...

 

[archie]

I think they're poor prices while they are both still stuffing themselves with summer grass but I can understand using time limited free bets and/or wanting to tie in the price on another horse in a double or treble.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

Without pointing out the obvious - the price will depend on where they start out and the quality of the opposition. Regarding Shishkin, Sprinter Sacre started off (over fences) at Donny of all places! Altior at Kempton where he beat only 1 rival Black Corton. Simonsig however started off in a Grade 2 at Ascot.

If Shishlin was to start in a weak novice chase he really should be no less than 5/2 no matter how he wins. If he starts in a better quality race (like simonsig) and wins well he could very well be under 2/1

As for Envoi Allen he isn't the flashiest of types is he so I would be surprised if he was under 2/1 but the bookies wont be taking any chances either.

Be interesting to see. Roll on October!!

 

[Kevloaf]

I think they're poor prices while they are both still stuffing themselves with summer grass but I can understand using time limited free bets and/or wanting to tie in the price on another horse in a double or treble.

I think if you completely ignore the fudge factor, then you can look at the price now and say "yes, I will beat SP considerably"... but I don't think that's the most sensible approach and I don't think many people do.


Psychologically it appeals to get a potential odds-on banker in a multiple, or as the last leg of a roll-up, but essentially the value hasn't changed.


Still, at shorter prices you have to do something to make them a worthwhille investment, or ignore them completely.

Fear of missing out from a majority must also drive these prices down. There can't be many on the forum that haven't dabbled with one of these horses at some point already, and we're in July.

 

[archie]

Gordon sent Samcro to Down Royal in early November and then on to the Drinmore. Assuming he comes to hand, Envoi Allen might go that route.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

Would be a logical place to start.Though you could say the same about Fury Road, Easywork and anything else from Gordon's embarrassment of riches.

Throw in The Big Getaway, Asterian Forlonge and possibly Klassical Dream and the Drinmore could be some race next year!

 

[EnvoyAllen]

2/1?

The bookies may clip them when confirmed chasing, clip them upon entry and clip them after a win if they are average. If they look good we could be looking at sub 2/1?

I think the prices you’ve suggested here Kev, and the timings of how they might ‘shorten’, are absolutely bang on Sir. When I’m putting an ante post bet on many months in advance (and I have invested quite heavily on the Envoi@Marsh & Shishkin@Arkle double, I’m trying to look ahead to the races in question, and work backwards to the present date I take the price. And I always HAVE to assume that the horse/s I’m backing are going to arrive at a Cheltenham both a) having had a great seasonal lead up, and b) fit and raring to go. You absolutely have to think like this. And the prices you’ve suggested absolutely mirror how I think they will go from here, until the 3rd week in March. It’s a reasonable assumption to suggest that should both aforementioned horses continue on with their supreme ability and race well between October and February, they’ll both be going off 4/5 or less on the day. I think that’s a reasonably fair assumption, should they remain unbeaten come Cheltenham.

The 4/1 price assumes they'll make a good debut... I don't think I'll get involved after debut before NRNB.

You'd want to take a price just before the stable tours as I think they'll get clipped then...

2/1?

The bookies may clip them when confirmed chasing, clip them upon entry and clip them after a win if they are average. If they look good we could be looking at sub 2/1?

I think the prices you’ve suggested here Kev, and the timings of how they might ‘shorten’, are absolutely bang on Sir. When I’m putting an ante post bet on many months in advance (and I have invested quite heavily on the Envoi@Marsh & Shishkin@Arkle double, I’m trying to look ahead to the races in question, and work backwards to the present date I take the price. And I always HAVE to assume that the horse/s I’m backing are going to arrive at a Cheltenham both a) having had a great seasonal lead up, and b) fit and raring to go. You absolutely have to think like this. And the prices you’ve suggested absolutely mirror how I think they will go from here, until the 3rd week in March. It’s a reasonable assumption to suggest that should both aforementioned horses continue on with their supreme ability and race well between October and February, they’ll both be going off 4/5 or less on the day. I think that’s a reasonably fair assumption, should they remain unbeaten come Cheltenham.

 

[archie]

Would be a logical place to start.Though you could say the same about Fury Road, Easywork and anything else from Gordon's embarrassment of riches.

Samcro was following the same path as Delta Work so it's almost certain that one or even two of his go that route.

I rather think that Shishkin will be out later. He didn't start over hurdles until December and Nicky got Sprinter Sacre going in December and Altior in late November.

 

[Lobos]

I think with Shiskin his price won't retract much more now before his debut as it's pretty clear the Arkle is his port of call at this stage. Envoi though is a different kettle of fish. Apart from his price in the Marsh which has been driven down by the likes of us on here assuming he's going that route, nothing has been said re where he'll end up. His price could still drop dramatically on the back of connections coming out and giving big hints as to whether he'll be going Marsh, RSA or even Arkle. Personally I haven't tried to second guess and have instead taken the 5/2 TWAR. Even if he was to bomb out on his debut over fences and then be aimed at the Churdle I would fully expect him to be favourite for that race and his price wouldn't be much bigger than 5/2.

 

[archie]

Far, far more likely that Shishkin doesn't take to fences but there is no logical reason why either's price should contract before October.

 

[Lobos]

Far, far more likely that Shishkin doesn't take to fences but there is no logical reason why either's price should contract before October.

No one knows that. Both are PTP winners. Envoi may be the more fluent hurdler but that means jack shit when it comes to going over the big ones. Envoi could just as easily jump like a skunk and return to hurdles. We just don't know.

 

[archie]

They could both jump like skunks and make 4/1 look even more skinny. It's why a fudge factor includes moving to a new discipline and the injury factor for novice chasers.

 

[Lobos]

They could both jump like skunks and make 4/1 look even more skinny. It's why a fudge factor includes moving to a new discipline and the injury factor for novice chasers.

I'm not disagreeing at all that 4/1 is skinny for either of them, it's a disgrace really but that's us punters for you. They should be 4/1 to get there but it is what it is. My point was simply none of us know at this stage who, of the two, will turn out to be the better jumper of fences.

 

[EnvoyAllen]

But surely guys it’s not the actual figure (the 4 in the 4/1) but the % that price might reduce to? If both horses (and it’s possible, with both trainers referring to each as special) have very good starts to their novice campaigns unbeaten, both horses say for example go off evens money - a shortening of 400%. But if you can get a 20/1 ante post shot now down to 5/1 come the day,we’d all be excited??? And yet, the mark up you’re getting 8 months in advance is still the same - 400%?? It’s not just about the price, it’s about the % extra you feel you might get in advance. And I think that’s often well overlooked.