-
HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!
Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)
- Thread starter Kevloaf
- Start date
Spectre
Member
- Joined
- Jun 4, 2020
- Messages
- 4,627
- Reaction score
- 2,996
- Points
- 83
It's not normally the kind of bet I use Joleg, and 8/1 feels a bit stingy given he'll probably run at least four times. If I were to consider an unbeaten bet I think I'd prefer it with a hurdler rather than a novice chaser anyway.
I think there are only two things that get Envoi Allen beaten this season and that's an injury or a bad mistake/fall. Shishkin similar. They stay fit and stand up they are the best two long range bets of the Festival. Both will halve in odds after their seasonal debuts, and then trade at evens or odds on after winning around Christmas. Aside from Easysland every other bet anyone has in their books area bigger price for a reason.
Compare the Champion Hurdle market for example. Epatante at 4's with shades of 7/2, Goschen 9/2 and as low as 4's and Abracadabras 6's and 7's. Do you really want to be backing any of those ahead of Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Easysland who are an absolute must max stake trixie (sepearate doubles and treble), to have in your book.
It still comes back to adequate cover for Envoi Allen going to the RSA though. Having reflected though I think the answer has been staring me in the face. Any more bets for him must be 'any race' multiples, and I can cover the RSA in a single during the season if there's any inkling he goes that way.
I think there are only two things that get Envoi Allen beaten this season and that's an injury or a bad mistake/fall. Shishkin similar. They stay fit and stand up they are the best two long range bets of the Festival. Both will halve in odds after their seasonal debuts, and then trade at evens or odds on after winning around Christmas. Aside from Easysland every other bet anyone has in their books area bigger price for a reason.
Compare the Champion Hurdle market for example. Epatante at 4's with shades of 7/2, Goschen 9/2 and as low as 4's and Abracadabras 6's and 7's. Do you really want to be backing any of those ahead of Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Easysland who are an absolute must max stake trixie (sepearate doubles and treble), to have in your book.
It still comes back to adequate cover for Envoi Allen going to the RSA though. Having reflected though I think the answer has been staring me in the face. Any more bets for him must be 'any race' multiples, and I can cover the RSA in a single during the season if there's any inkling he goes that way.
Vautour
Fat Jockey Patron
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2017
- Messages
- 424
- Reaction score
- 20
- Points
- 18
I’m very bullish that he will go Marsh.
The RSA looks redhot at the moment (though could change once the season gets going) and Gordon like to aim horses at the easiest race.
Don Cossack was deemed a superstar and went the mid distance route before tackling the Gold Cup (though did run in the RSA which Im sure he’s said he regrets).
I think Cheveley will do whatever Gordon says. My impression this year was they wanted Allaho in the RSA more than Willie did and they may be less likely to air their views to the trainer.
The RSA looks redhot at the moment (though could change once the season gets going) and Gordon like to aim horses at the easiest race.
Don Cossack was deemed a superstar and went the mid distance route before tackling the Gold Cup (though did run in the RSA which Im sure he’s said he regrets).
I think Cheveley will do whatever Gordon says. My impression this year was they wanted Allaho in the RSA more than Willie did and they may be less likely to air their views to the trainer.
Lobos
Fat Jockey Patron - DGC Winner 2021
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2019
- Messages
- 29,186
- Reaction score
- 6,485
- Points
- 83
Not sure I'd have any chaser over hurdlers in respect of multiples especially Novices. Too risky for me in that they could fail to take to fences and even if they do there is a much bigger chance they could fall when they get to the festival.
A bit of a leap to think that based on one 'wrong' decision they'd change their philosophy and relinquish their power and do whatever a different trainer says.
Let's hope they consider the Marsh to be the most logical race for him too. The fact his novice hurdle campaign was over shorter than Allaho's was is enough for me to remain confident that we're correct on the target at this stage though
archie
Fat Jockey Patron
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2017
- Messages
- 4,901
- Reaction score
- 1,316
- Points
- 83
As I've said several times, the yard considered Allaho a potential Gold Cup horse most of last season. Some quotes may indicate that they changed their minds after the RSA but there's no chance that Willie would have been pressured in to running in that race. It's just not the way they work.
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
I still don’t think racing Allaho in the RSA was a bad decision, it was the right decision IMO, he just got out stayed in the last 100 yards. If he had put in a performance like Copperhead or Easy Game then yeah you’d could state it was the wrong race but he only lost by 2 lengths. It was a very similar result to the 2019 RSA and Santini and LiT went on to perform very well in this seasons GC. Personally I don’t think Allaho will have the tactical pace for the Ryanair and a bold front running effort in the Gold Cup may be his best option. I still think he’s a really good horse and is good enough to compete in the GC. Like Delta Work he may just need another season to improve his physical and mental strengths to win a race like the GC so even if he doesn’t win next seasons he’s young enough to try again.
I hope your 30 point double lands
Let us know when you next have a 5/1 winner up your sleeve too, I could do with one at the moment :highly_amused:
Faugheen_Machine
Legendary Fat Jockey, Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Mod
- Joined
- Sep 29, 2014
- Messages
- 11,239
- Reaction score
- 1,544
- Points
- 83
I hope your 30 point double lands
Let us know when you next have a 5/1 winner up your sleeve too, I could do with one at the moment :highly_amused:
Kev has a point - I think you've made the current aftertiming list after that post V.
Middle_Of_March
Fat Jockey Patron
- Joined
- Jan 13, 2018
- Messages
- 3,829
- Reaction score
- 1,157
- Points
- 83
Lobos
Fat Jockey Patron - DGC Winner 2021
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2019
- Messages
- 29,186
- Reaction score
- 6,485
- Points
- 83
I know he's mentioned elsewhere on the forum but Felix Desjy needs bringing into the conversation here doesn't he?
A big player - based on a flat run.....
A big player - based on a flat run.....
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
I know he's mentioned elsewhere on the forum but Felix Desjy needs bringing into the conversation here doesn't he?
A big player - based on a flat run.....
I’ve missed the TWAR price on him after his win this evening. Where do you predict he’ll end up?? I think he will stay over hurdles and think he will be aimed at one of the handicap hurdles
Kautostar
Fat Jockey Patron
- Joined
- Dec 5, 2018
- Messages
- 1,747
- Reaction score
- 493
- Points
- 83
He did school over fences last season and chasing was the plan then.....maybe just having a go at an early season hcap hurdle then onto chasing?
Arkle I'd assume....
Galway for a h'cap hurdle then a couple of novice chases.... put him away and bring him back 2021 to place in the Arkle.