Notebook only being 135 over hurdles doesn't bother me in the slightest. Le Richebourg was a warm favourite for the race last season before injury. He, like Notebook won the key trials. He was rated just 140 over hurdles before going chasing. But I don't remember it coming up? Sire du Grugy finished his novice hurdle campaign off 143 yet went onto win the Champion Chase and multiple grade ones. Special Tiara last run over hurdles was off 116! If Notebook weren't to win in it's definitely not because of his low mark last year, I think he's proved now in the last 2 Irish trials that he's a class horse and right up there over fences. Though i'm not saying he'd having won a Supreme by any means, HdB has also come out and said he was running him over the wrong trip last season. Obvious and easy to say in hindsight winning grade 1 novice chases over 2 miles but I wouldn't like to see Notebook over 2m4 over a fence right now. It would 100% be the wrong trip.
On his pre-race antics today. Certainly not ideal, but he managed to overcome all of that and still get his head in front in a battle.
I'm pretty certain he showed no similar signs before the Ballymore last season either so hopefully it is a one off rather than a trait.
My only slight concern going into Cheltenham is whether that battle with Cash Back might just leave a slight mark on the horse (and indeed the runner up) with 5 weeks to go.
I wasn't 100% convinced on Cash Back after his last run. I thought the race fell apart and it may have flattered the winning distance. But he absolutely backed it up here. I've got a nice position in the Arkle but I am tempted to add him at 7/1. He's going to go into the race as the Mullins number 1 and that alone is worthy of backing. But i'm still deciding on this one. Like I mentioned with Notebook, I have a slight worry about how tough a race and finish between the pair. I'd be confident of Notebook upholding the form, particularly if he has no issues pre race but 4 points difference, with less than a length between them today and Mullins training, plenty of appeal.
Of Mullins other runners, the Bapaume project backfired. I was quite keen on him myself having 2pts on for the Arkle but he never looked happy. His jumping was decent but we surly won't be seeing him over 2 miles. Felt I was lucky to get my full stake back cashing out if i'm honest. Move on...
Melon at face value is another who you'd be saying goes up in trip and has no shot. That said we've seen this before. He's a shadow of himself away from Cheltenham. He's suffered defeats of 19, 29, 10, 22, 7, and 11 lengths in the past away from Cheltenham. So a defeat like today isn't new for the horse (he had also lost 3/4 at the track prior). Listening to both Ruby and Patrick suggested he'd be in the Flogas. I may be completely wrong but based on the amount of clashes and runners today, I can't help but think Willie maybe moved the likes of Melon, Laurina and Allaho away from the Flogas to give Faugheen the very best shot of winning. I've left him backed at 25/1 for the Marsh. Still deciding what to do on that one...
Gallant John Joe ran another solid race. Can see the appeal in him for the Close Brothers IF they can get another run in but I think they might be tight in getting in under 145. His form tailed off at the end of last season but you have to think he'll do best over further. He ran another decent race at the meeting last year in the grade one won by Commander of Fleet.
It's hard to see any other Irish horses enter the mix in this race now. Perhaps a Flogas runner of Mullins who may not stay (Tornado Flyer for example). I'd fully expect Fakir D'Oudaries to be going up in trip again. I think the situation was similar to A Plus Tard in that today would be the last pop at 2 miles but unless they were to win a step up to the intermediate trip is next.
and Jono .
