Antepost Market for 2020 Flat Racing Season

[Saxon Warrior]

Good to see the figures and although 4/10 only ran 3 times, the recent winners did see plenty of racing at 2. That said this season has been a little different to anything we have previously seen. Homecoming Queen was something of a freak in that she took in nurseries before bolting up in the Guineas at a massive price. A run that she didn't reproduce.

Personally, I would rather see more of a horse in his/her second year.

I watched back Homecoming Queen's 1000 Guineas win a month ago when I saw Shale was her daughter.

I went to both Guineas for around 20 years as a Newmarket member and my memory was that Homecoming Queen was given a soft lead and she never came back.

On watching the race back, that wasn't the case she led but only by a length or so at the front of the whole field, before powering away from the dip onwards.
She marmelised them.
It was the most impressive 1000 Guineas winner I can remember.

Shale is a much better 2yo than her mum, Donnacha knows what he's got and she been 121 in the 3 main Group races for fillies in Ireland.

I was gobsmacked when some bookies left her (or pushed her out) @33/1 after the Group 2 Debutante Stakes, as I truly believed they would finish 1-2 again in the Group 1 Moyglare.

The ground seems to be the small difference between the two, and Pretty Gorgeous was asked to come from behind again.
Shale is a difficult horse to pass, so I assume that Joseph won't give up ground to her next time out.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

An interesting position is emerging in the Prix Foret Group 1 over 7F on Arc weekend.

Godolphin now have the three favourites for the race.

Space Blues 3/1
Pinatubo 4/1
Earthlight 6/1
7/1 bar

There is British Champions Day 2 weeks after the Foret where Space Blues has the 6F Group 1 entry and Pinatubo the 6GmF and Mile entries.

After Earthlight's cosy win in a Group 3 yesterday on his step up to 7F it seems Andre Fabre is pretty committed with him to the Foret and then the Breeders Cup Mile (the same options Charlie Appleby was thinking for Pinatubo after his fast finish out of nowhere a week ago).

Several permutations possible for the 3 horses and maybe more chance now that Pinatubo could turn up in the QEII if the ground stays away from soft.

PS: Unibet are way out of line at 10/1 for Earthlight in the Foret.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Timeform updated 2yo ratings after the weekend.

Colts
Thunder Moon 120p
Chindit 117p
Cadillac 116p
Albasheer 114p

Fillies
Shale 114
Pretty Gorgeous 113
Indigo Girl 101P

 

[kinloch brae]

I watched back Homecoming Queen's 1000 Guineas win a month ago when I saw Shale was her daughter.

I went to both Guineas for around 20 years as a Newmarket member and my memory was that Homecoming Queen was given a soft lead and she never came back.

On watching the race back, that wasn't the case she led but only by a length or so at the front of the whole field, before powering away from the dip onwards.
She marmelised them.
It was the most impressive 1000 Guineas winner I can remember.

Shale is a much better 2yo than her mum, Donnacha knows what he's got and she been 121 in the 3 main Group races for fillies in Ireland.

I was gobsmacked when some bookies left her (or pushed her out) @33/1 after the Group 2 Debutante Stakes, as I truly believed they would finish 1-2 again in the Group 1 Moyglare.

The ground seems to be the small difference between the two, and Pretty Gorgeous was asked to come from behind again.
Shale is a difficult horse to pass, so I assume that Joseph won't give up ground to her next time out.

Others in the Thinking Of You one run/one win bracket would be A'Shaari, Love Is You, Star Seeking and the French pair Petricor and Philomene. All at this stage would be in the could be anything bracket. I would guess at least some of them will pitch up in the Rockfel/Fillies Mile/Prix Marcel Boussac where they could well meet the established pair.

 

[kinloch brae]

An interesting position is emerging in the Prix Foret Group 1 over 7F on Arc weekend.

Godolphin now have the three favourites for the race.

Space Blues 3/1
Pinatubo 4/1
Earthlight 6/1
7/1 bar

There is British Champions Day 2 weeks after the Foret where Space Blues has the 6F Group 1 entry and Pinatubo the 6GmF and Mile entries.

After Earthlight's cosy win in a Group 3 yesterday on his step up to 7F it seems Andre Fabre is pretty committed with him to the Foret and then the Breeders Cup Mile (the same options Charlie Appleby was thinking for Pinatubo after his fast finish out of nowhere a week ago).

Several permutations possible for the 3 horses and maybe more chance now that Pinatubo could turn up in the QEII if the ground stays away from soft.

PS: Unibet are way out of line at 10/1 for Earthlight in the Foret.

I think Space Blues has taken a massive leap forward and assuming he reproduces that form I would be surprised if Earthlight could beat him. That said he is too short for me in the ante-post market.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Others in the Thinking Of You one run/one win bracket would be A'Shaari, Love Is You, Star Seeking and the French pair Petricor and Philomene. All at this stage would be in the could be anything bracket. I would guess at least some of them will pitch up in the Rockfel/Fillies Mile/Prix Marcel Boussac where they could well meet the established pair.

I like A’Shaari.

The breeding has her dam Hibaayeb as a Fillies Mile winner and then at 3, a Ribblesdale winner.
I wouldn’t think she would stay over 7F for her second start, more like a mile.
I’ve got her in mind for the Oaks primarily at the moment.

For AOB the 2yo of his that I like most at the moment is Listed winner at the weekend - MONDAY.
Group1’‘s next time out in Longchamp or Newmarket are on the agenda.

She is a Fastnet Rock filly out of Ballydoyle (Damsire Galileo) and looking through her breeding could be best at 8-10F next season.

She was 14/1 for the Fillies Mile yesterday which looks more than fair, if I knew that was the aim for her, over the Boussac.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I think Space Blues has taken a massive leap forward and assuming he reproduces that form I would be surprised if Earthlight could beat him. That said he is too short for me in the ante-post market.

Does that mean that you think Space Blues will take up the Foret engagement for Godolphin, alongside Fabre’s plan for the same owners Earthlight to run in the race.

And that leaves Pinatubo for other targets?

 

[YoungHustler]

Top price on Thunder Moon is now 7s for next years Guineas. Possible next race is now the Dewhurst which will give him a chance to cement his position as top 2 year old. It would be interesting to hear how Joseph O'Brien rates State Of Rest(who came third to Chindit by 1l) to Thunder Moon. I'd like to think that he rates Thunder Moon a lot higher than State Of Rest which means he wouldn't fear lining up against Chindit in the Dewhurst.

 

[kinloch brae]

Does that mean that you think Space Blues will take up the Foret engagement for Godolphin, alongside Fabre’s plan for the same owners Earthlight to run in the race.

And that leaves Pinatubo for other targets?

Yes, although I think he could cope with a stiff six, seven furlongs is his trip and the Foret the obvious target.

 

[kinloch brae]

Top price on Thunder Moon is now 7s for next years Guineas. Possible next race is now the Dewhurst which will give him a chance to cement his position as top 2 year old. It would be interesting to hear how Joseph O'Brien rates State Of Rest(who came third to Chindit by 1l) to Thunder Moon. I'd like to think that he rates Thunder Moon a lot higher than State Of Rest which means he wouldn't fear lining up against Chindit in the Dewhurst.

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2020/September/14/dewhurst-option-for-national-hero-thunder-moon

Reading the quote I would say he is by no means certain to run again this season.

 

[kinloch brae]

I like A’Shaari.

The breeding has her dam Hibaayeb as a Fillies Mile winner and then at 3, a Ribblesdale winner.
I wouldn’t think she would stay over 7F for her second start, more like a mile.
I’ve got her in mind for the Oaks primarily at the moment.

For AOB the 2yo of his that I like most at the moment is Listed winner at the weekend - MONDAY.
Group1’‘s next time out in Longchamp or Newmarket are on the agenda.

She is a Fastnet Rock filly out of Ballydoyle (Damsire Galileo) and looking through her breeding could be best at 8-10F next season.

She was 14/1 for the Fillies Mile yesterday which looks more than fair, if I knew that was the aim for her, over the Boussac.

I would be wary of the ground with Monday. If she took on Earth Strike over a mile on soft ground I wouldn't be that surprised if the form was reversed.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2020/September/14/dewhurst-option-for-national-hero-thunder-moon

Reading the quote I would say he is by no means certain to run again this season.

The Dewhurst betting has stretched across several firms this evening, and they have included a lot of horses.

Etonian is 8’s with WH, 7’s with Unibet but 14/1 with BF/PP which seems massive, as the trainer also has Chindit, who is between 5/2 and 4/1 in this market, and I’m not convinced that he would think there’s that much between them.

Pity I don’t know Pat Dobbs, as he has ridden both colts in all of their runs, and would have an idea on which one he would pick for the race.:highly_amused:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

That Thunder Moon ante post bet has cost me my Ladbrokes account. Now restricted to pennies.:dejection:

 

[kinloch brae]

The Dewhurst betting has stretched across several firms this evening, and they have included a lot of horses.

Etonian is 8’s with WH, 7’s with Unibet but 14/1 with BF/PP which seems massive, as the trainer also has Chindit, who is between 5/2 and 4/1 in this market, and I’m not convinced that he would think there’s that much between them.

Pity I don’t know Pat Dobbs, as he has ridden both colts in all of their runs, and would have an idea on which one he would pick for the race.:highly_amused:

Very difficult if you don't running plans. You also don't know how much the bookmakers are guessing or in some cases whether they have had a steer.

I would be much happier with the Chindit/Pat Dobbs combination than Thunder Moon/McDonagh. Unfortunately, I assume McDonagh will retain the ride having ridden the horse twice?

 

[parimutuel]

And we still don't know what Lucky Vega's got.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

That Thunder Moon ante post bet has cost me my Ladbrokes account. Now restricted to pennies.:dejection:

Was that a post-race "hover" bet, or something different?

I do have issues with bookies that leave markets up and then take negative action against those that take the prices they are advertising, in the moments before they change them.

Maybe if they pulled the 2000 Guineas market - or horses about to run that are in their 2000 Guineas betting - whilst a race is run that would be a better outcome.

Bet365 do this, and therefore avoids grief with their customers.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

British and Irish handicappers have updated their official ratings.

In Ireland
Thunder Moon 116
Cadillac 115
Wembley 112 (up 20lb)
St Marks Basilica 112

Shale 112
Pretty Gorgeous (remains on 110)

UK
Chindit 115
Albasheer 112

Indigo Girl 107

 

[kinloch brae]

Was that a post-race "hover" bet, or something different?

I do have issues with bookies that leave markets up and then take negative action against those that take the prices they are advertising, in the moments before they change them.

Maybe if they pulled the 2000 Guineas market - or horses about to run that are in their 2000 Guineas betting - whilst a race is run that would be a better outcome.

Bet365 do this, and therefore avoids grief with their customers.

It is more difficult to track now Ladbrokes/Corals are not on oddschecker but they wouldn't have been 14/1 before the race. They decided on 14/1 when the others were single figures so what did they expect?

We don't know the exact bet but the decision looks harsh. That said it is probably happening more and more. These days with many of them you can't even win 'small' for any length of time. Betfair/Paddy Power will often go up early with big prices. How often do you think people get on successfully at these prices? It is very frustrating for someone like myself who bets the equivalent of peanuts.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

It is more difficult to track now Ladbrokes/Corals are not on oddschecker but they wouldn't have been 14/1 before the race. They decided on 14/1 when the others were single figures so what did they expect?

We don't know the exact bet but the decision looks harsh. That said it is probably happening more and more. These days with many of them you can't even win 'small' for any length of time. Betfair/Paddy Power will often go up early with big prices. How often do you think people get on successfully at these prices? It is very frustrating for someone like myself who bets the equivalent of peanuts.

I saw that Lads put up 14/1 post race.
You shouldnt lose your account for taking a new post-race price offered - that would be nuts.

But we know that the bookmakers can do what they want

That will continue until they have to accept that they will need to provide better business practices to their customers after a Gambling Commission enquiry. That could a be a while to determine yet though.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I saw that Lads put up 14/1 post race.
You shouldnt lose your account for taking a new post-race price offered - that would be nuts.

But we know that the bookmakers can do what they want

That will continue until they have to accept that they will need to provide better business practices to their customers after a Gambling Commission enquiry. That could a be a while to determine yet though.

They introduced him at 14/1 and kept it for a good 20 minutes after the race. I was slightly concerned as he was already trading at 7/1 on Betfair so I could easily have traded out instantly.

Live chat was no use. Got the usual response of we don't have to explain why you've been restricted and it was a trading decision.