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Antepost Market for 2020 Flat Racing Season

Saxon Warrior said:
Regarding the Arc, none of this lot go in the sloppy stuff better than they run on better ground.
I’m not sure there is a soft ground angle for any of them, in the race.

—————-

I looked through all of the entries this afternoon, couldn’t find another angle, so decided to leave it, and invest further into SANTA BARBARA to win the 1000 Guineas, and to win the Oaks, before the prices collapse further.

Her debut was pretty special, the best debut on RPR’s for any filly less than 50/1 in the betting for both the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks.

I’m thinking that she will be the one to put it up to Shale and Pretty Gorgeous in the 1000 Guineas, and I think Santa Barbara is an even better selection for The Oaks.

I need to see if I can find a special out there for her to win both.
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I was equally taken with Santa Barbara Saxon - 66s for the double with 365 seems fair

Also agree with the lack of the soft ground angle in the Arc... interesting debate on here as to whether Love will get away with it or not... FWIW, I’m willing to give her the benefit particularly at the price now
 
kinloch brae said:
I am not on Love at anything like that price but if I had 200/1 I would still be looking around for an alternative. The hope is that she is a much stronger filly than last year and will be able to cope with a softer surface that much better. There are very few horses who are equally exceptional on quick and slow ground and she also needs a career best to win.
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If you had a horse at 200/1 that was 11/4, you'd be looking elsewhere?

It sounds like you don't think 200/1 would be value about her, so if I was you, my advice would be lay her - as that must be the best lay you've ever seen at 4/11 (or whatever it is on the exchanges right now).




At 200/1, I'd probably make a book on the race - however at 20/1 I'll just take my chance.

Thanks for the advice though, I just don't agree with how you perceive value in this case.
 
Morley Street said:
I was equally taken with Santa Barbara Saxon - 66s for the double with 365 seems fair

Also agree with the lack of the soft ground angle in the Arc... interesting debate on here as to whether Love will get away with it or not... FWIW, I’m willing to give her the benefit particularly at the price now
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Seamie coming out and saying she could be the best in the family when that family includes Iridessa is promising enough!
 
Morley Street said:
I was equally taken with Santa Barbara Saxon - 66s for the double with 365 seems fair

Also agree with the lack of the soft ground angle in the Arc... interesting debate on here as to whether Love will get away with it or not... FWIW, I’m willing to give her the benefit particularly at the price now
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Yes, I got that added last night, plus Shale 33/1.

The one in the Arc that maybe could slog through heavy (if its ends up heavy) could be Sovereign, he ran on heavy once and sluiced in, when winning his 2yo maiden by 14 lengths.
Scant form I know (RPR 99, but was 30lbs better than his first 2 runs).
He still has an entry in the Cadan over 2M4F though, so final decs will confirm if he even comes to the Arc.
 
jack1092 said:
Seamie coming out and saying she could be the best in the family when that family includes Iridessa is promising enough!
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Yes, he tends to reveal absolutely nothing, or has very guarded speech, but he was hyping Santa Barbara first time out win, like nothing Ive seen him do before.

I have 33s and 25s for the 1000 Guineas and 25s twice for the Oaks now, and very happy with that.

One filly each for the OBriens, in the 1000 completes the set.

Shale 33/1 - DOB
Pretty Gorgeous 66/1 - JOB
Santa Barbara 33/1 - AOB

They could all come out one more time this autumn, and bomb out of course. :highly_amused:
 
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SANTA BARBARA is really capturing the imagination of many as an Oaks filly today.

Bet Victor from 20's to 16's to 10's (the last move was within 10 minutes of the drop to 16's)
Unibet smashed in from 20's to 16's to 12's, then 10's today

Thats the two bookmakers who had stuck out at 20's overnight, shot down to below the market-norm of 16's by mid-afternoon.:applause:

The rest are moving now, WH and Sky cuts 2pts each into 14s and 12s.

16s could be under threat for the rest now.

I thought she was far more impressive than High Definition at the weekend (granted I'm comparing a maiden with a Group 2, but Im always looking for maiden winners with star quality).

I didnt think so many others would be following up with Oaks and Guineas bets forcing the heavy price cuts though.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
They have forgotten to adjust the price, I am sure.

They have hacked her down to 10’s (from 25/1) for the Fillies and Mares on British Champions Day over 1M4F.

But Joseph and William Buick have nominated the Prix Royallieu, which is over the longer trip she has won over the last twice. :encouragement:
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Looking nice with Enbihaar now out. Hopefully she’s sound and it’s still the plan.
 
Priceiskey said:
Looking nice with Enbihaar now out. Hopefully she’s sound and it’s still the plan.
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PISTA is looking very good at the 25/1 gained three hours after she won at Donny, when the market had dropped all around Unibet, to 10/1, but Uni held at 25/1 and cut her for the British Champions Day Fillies and Mares instead.

10/1 looks pretty good too. :highly_amused:

It’s the key horse for me, running at the weekend, from a payout perspective.......more than the Arc.

and also because of spotting the price and raising it on here, of course. :encouragement:

Unibet did this three times over that weekend, and I raised it on the pages before this.

Earthlight 14/1 (now 7/4) for the Foret - mentioned in post #62 at 10/1 on 14th Sept

Pista 25/1 (now 9/2) for the Royallieu - mentioned in post #37 at 25/1 on 10th Sept

Cayenne Pepper 25/1(now 8/1) for the L’Opera - mentioned in post #44 at 25/1 on 13 Sept

It looks like the first two will run, but the ground will be too soft for Cayenne Pepper.
 
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Logician 15/1 with WH with boost seems a very big price and hopefully a likely target
 
Hugh Taylor has put up Morando for a repeat bid in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot on saturday in hopefully forecast testing conditions. Best price now 11/2 with the Oddschecker bookies but Ladbrokes/Coral still 8/1. Not guaranteed to be declared as trainer and jockey is booked on two.

https://www.attheraces.com/tips/atr-tipsters/hugh-taylor

Looks a decent case
 
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Gary Nutting from Attheraces has put up Santa Barbara for the Fillies Mile at Ascot next Friday at 10s. Price is still there with B365 but as low as 5s with Paddy's.

Just noticed she's only 10s for next year's Oaks so 10s for next week is pretty good if she turns up!
 
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YoungHustler said:
Gary Nutting from Attheraces has put up Santa Barbara for the Fillies Mile at Ascot next Friday at 10s. Price is still there with B365 but as low as 5s with Paddy's.

Just noticed she's only 10s for next year's Oaks so 10s for next week is pretty good if she turns up!
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Yes, post-win on Saturday AOB said she didn’t need to run again, she has only just got ready for her first run.

If she comes on for the run then they could keep her in the 5-Day decs on Monday.
If they stick to their first thoughts then she could be removed from the race though.

Nutting doesn’t mention AOB’s comments, but he must know them?

She looks very very good, and if she is left in then she could go close to favourite on Monday afternoon.
 
YoungHustler said:
Gary Nutting from Attheraces has put up Santa Barbara for the Fillies Mile at Ascot next Friday at 10s. Price is still there with B365 but as low as 5s with Paddy's.

Just noticed she's only 10s for next year's Oaks so 10s for next week is pretty good if she turns up!
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Will she run though.
I thought I read that he would put her away for the year.
Nutting didn't refer to this, or any inkling that they are to come over.
Be 2-1 or shorter if she did.
 
Jinx ........
 
Quevega said:
Will she run though.
I thought I read that he would put her away for the year.
Nutting didn't refer to this, or any inkling that they are to come over.
Be 2-1 or shorter if she did.
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I'm annoyed he didn't cover the trainers postrace comments about possibly not running again this season.
He needed to do that to add credibility to the reasons for him selecting the filly.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
I'm annoyed he didn't cover the trainers postrace comments about possibly not running again this season.
He needed to do that to add credibility to the reasons for him selecting the filly.
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He's got a Twitter handle (@horsetraderinfo)but looks like you can't message him or that he uses it much. I've messaged Attheraces to see if they know anything.
 
YoungHustler said:
He's got a Twitter handle (@horsetraderinfo)but looks like you can't message him or that he uses it much. I've messaged Attheraces to see if they know anything.
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:encouragement:
10/1 is massive if she is declared and runs, but I wouldn’t want lose cash if he hasnt done his homework.
Hopefully you can get a quick answer.
 
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