Antepost Market for 2020 Flat Racing Season

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm really interested in Imperium for the Cesarewitch.

He's a Frankel out of Ramruma (Oaks winner) and is really lightly raced. Two starts ago he was held up and flew home over 2 miles, just failing to get up - it was a poor race but he was definitely the best horse in it. He's only ran once this season over a mile and a half on the AW and battled well to win when the trip is shorter than he wants.

Roger Charlton ran another unexposed horse in the race a few years ago and that worked out nicely!

The thing that interests me most though - they haven't ran him since June, yet have entered him for the Cesarewitch. I think this is a long term plan, it certainly looks like it to me.

He's only rated 82 so will probably need to win again to get a run, but interestingly, the Cesarewitch trial is at Newmarket next Saturday (after the weights have been announced). If he is entered, that will convince me that this is the plan, and I'll be backing him for both races.

Unfortunately only 14/1 so he hasn't been missed by the bookies.

 

[Priceiskey]

Seems a well reasoned case FM. Does seem a bit too lightly raced but Charlton knows the time of day. One to keep an eye on. Cheers.

 

[BigChaang]

I don't bet much A/P on the Flat , But i had a small bet on Chindit .
for the 2000 guineas 2021, just before the off yesterday .
Might add Albasheer later , as his price hasn't changed.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Cayenne Pepper back to top form when running over her best trip of 10F for the first time.

Prix De L’Opera at Longchamp on Arc weekend over 10F for Fillies Only could be a good place to go for her Grade 1 next.

Markets reacted to her win by cutting her to between 6/1 and 10/1.
Apart from Unibet which still have her on 25/1


Kate Harrington has stated that she has the Opera entry, but she may go to USA for the 9F Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup race around the same time, and then stay on for the Breeders Cup as she has US owners.

Had a bit on her at 25/1 for the Prix De L’Opera in case she goes there first before the Breeders Cup (rather than Alpine Stars).

Not quoted yet in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf over 10F.

Update: 8/1 first price up for Breeders Cup F&M Turf.

 

[Priceiskey]

I don't bet much A/P on the Flat , But i had a small bet on Chindit .
for the 2000 guineas 2021, just before the off yesterday .
Might add Albasheer later , as his price hasn't changed.

Was a nice performance and on to the Dewhurst next. Listening to Hannon it just seems he rates Etonian higher saying he’s definitely a Guineas horse where as he said Chindit could be? Chindit would have the strongest form but there’s just something about Etonian the way he travels I just think he could be a bit special. Dewhurst should tell us a lot more.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think we've just seen the 2000G in Ireland. 14/1 available with Ladbrokes which is unbelievable price.

 

[Quevega]

I think we've just seen the 2000G in Ireland. 14/1 available with Ladbrokes which is unbelievable price.

Just backed that myself.
Backed it the last twice after it ran in a barrier trial just before it's debut

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just backed that myself.
Backed it the last twice after it ran in a barrier trial just before it's debut

Managed to get a decent amount at 14/1 but the rest got referred to trader.

Should be single figures after that performance

 

[Priceiskey]

Serious horse. That turn of foot is scary.

 

[YoungHustler]

I was trying to count my winnings when Master hit the front but OMG that Thunder Moon blew me away. Took the first odds I say at only 6s but doubled up with Earthlight and then did the same at 8s. Shame I didn't check Ladbrokes. I've now got 2 whole points Antepost which is a first for me! This horse really looks special.

 

[kinloch brae]

Agree with everyone else. Got the jockey out of a huge mess. A clear run and he would surely have won a decent renewal by three lengths without coming off the bridle. Very surprised Ladbrokes offered 14/1 when the others were single figures. Obviously, things can go wrong but it will take something very special to surpass that performance.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Thunder Moon is by Zoffany, so he must already be the best that this sire has produced (Fleeting was more bridesmaid than bride, and she was one of his better ones).

Could be a breakthrough horse for the sire.

 

[kinloch brae]

Thunder Moon is by Zoffany, so he must already be the best that this sire has produced (Fleeting was more bridesmaid than bride, and she was one of his better ones).

Could be a breakthrough horse for the sire.

Looking at other horses that I had noted I have both Earth Strike and Pythagoras on my list. I suspect if Earth Strike gets a bit of cut and another furlong he will step up on yesterday's performance.

 

[parimutuel]

Thunder Moon is by Zoffany, so he must already be the best that this sire has produced (Fleeting was more bridesmaid than bride, and she was one of his better ones).

Could be a breakthrough horse for the sire.

SW, with Nashwan on the dam side, a possible Derby contender?

 

[Saxon Warrior]

SW, with Nashwan on the dam side, a possible Derby contender?

Dam sire Sadlers Wells, granddam sire Nashwan, looks on the face of it like a trip would suit.

But Zoffany hasn't had a top class middle distance horse yet, and this guy seemed to have a burst of speed, which points towards a Guineas trip in the classics for my money.

Todays race was a painfully slow time c/w the fillies Group 1, and I'm not entirely sure what to make of the form.

Quick finishers dominating the end of a slow run race. :concern:


At the start of the day there were 3 market leaders,
- one coughed and missed the race
- one got boxed in and didn't have a decent crack at the race
- one did burst through a furlong out but then seem to flatten out just as quickly, and got swallowed up.

The winner did look impressive, but I'm not sure beating Wembley and Saint Marks Basilica under 2 lengths is the stuff of legends just yet.

Cadillac's run was equally impressive in the Group 2 mile.

The 7F and 8F Group 1s move on to France then England in the next few weeks and I think we will see better form than the National Stakes produced yesterday.

It may well come from todays winner, if he improves a bit more, or Cadillac, or a Hannon runner, or a maiden winner like today's race.

Its an open market for the 2000 Guineas, unlike 12 months ago when Pinatubo ripped it apart.

From today, I like the fillies form better, the first two look solid Guineas horses with lots of Group runs now, just like the O'Brien's produce to win the 1000 regularly.
A quicker time than the colts, and the 3rd could be an Oaks horse too, if Jessie sees that in her.

 

[kinloch brae]

Whether you are on for the Guineas or not I wouldn't be in a hurry to try and play down what happened yesterday. Sometimes the visual impression, rather than the clock, is what matters most. Sometimes very ordinary horses have broken track records. It doesn't make them world beaters. Time boffins were all over the likes of Visionari and Kinross last season. Neither have looked like winning a race since.

You would have to be in cuckoo land to think yesterday's winning verdict was an accurate measure of the winner's superiority. You don't recover from being hampered like that in any race, let alone a Group 1 unless you are very good. In all likelihood had they gone quicker he wouldn't have had such a difficult passage and would have won with the minimum of fuss. Even though there wasn't really a second I would be very careful in attempting to beat any form down with O'Brien runners. We all know how they can take a massive and sometimes unexpected step forward.

I like Chindit but although I would mark up his Champagne Stakes win a little, I doubt the O'Brien horse who finished relatively close would be in the same league as Thunder Moon. I don't think Cadillac was anywhere near as impressive in winning a weaker race.

It will be interesting to see what they do with Thunder Moon this season. I am a strong believer in the idea that the more you do at two the less you have to play with at three. I don't think he needs more experience and he has already laid down a strong marker to be considered the champion 2 y-o. Far more important that he beats those who contest the Dewhurst next season in the 2,000 Guineas. The price might look attractive if you have missed the 14/1 for the Guineas but given his change of pace I wouldn't have the Derby on my mind at the moment.

As for the fillies they are beating each other up. Shale and Pretty Gorgeous have now had some pretty hard races and nine runs between them. They set a decent standard but I would be far less surprised if a maiden winner progressed past those two than Thunder Moon. As one example I was pretty impressed with Thinking Of You at Limerick on Friday. Perhaps you could consider something like Rockfel for her and then who knows? She is probably one of many lurkers who might improve past those with the obvious form.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Thunder Moon is definitely very good, and put down an excellent marker for others to surpass - as well as looking like he would be better than he showed.

Its not in the O'B family nature to pack up early and not run again. So we should get the chance to see who is the best of the 2yo colts when the different strands of form come together.

The 2000 Guineas recently has been won by horses starting off early at two as well as horses starting off later in the season (debuting late-August onwards).

The Racing Posts new rating today have these four colts at the top, with the impression that the top three in the list, have more to come.

2020 Leading RPR two-year-olds
117+ Thunder Moon
115+ Cadillac
115+ Chindit
115 Lucky Vega

-------------------------------------

On the other hand in the last decade the 1000 Guineas winning enclosure has very much been the preserve of those conditioned from their 2yo campaign, with all classic winning fillies having started before the end of July, if not a lot earlier.

Love 7 runs at 2, OR 111
Hermosa 7 runs at 2, OR 110
Billesdon Brook 8 runs, OR 99
Winter 3 runs, OR 89 (David Wachman trained at 2 for Coolmore)
Minding 5 runs, OR 120
Legatissimo 3 runs, OR 100 (David Wachman trained for Coolmore)
Miss France 3 runs, OR 112
Sky Lantern 6 runs, OR 111
Homecoming Queen 11 runs, OR 106
Blue Bunting 3 runs, OR 99

The AOB winners, started off before August started, were given lots of runs, Group race campaigns and were all rated 106-120 before the 2yo season finished.
AOB took on the training of Winter at 3.

That puts Shale (5 runs, OR increasing tomorrow to 110+) and Pretty Gorgeous (4 runs, OR 110) right in the mix for the 1000 Guineas, with quicker ground favouring the former, and softer ground the latter.

Both of AOBs sons seem to follow the same path of giving their good horses plenty of racing, which is great.

 

[parimutuel]

Thanks SW and KB for all the brilliant knowledge in trying to clear the 2 y/o murky waters a little and of course no one knows how any of them will progress as 3 y/olds. As they say, it pays to be better informed so at least we can take an 'educated' guess at trying to get a head start for a decent AP price.

Looking forward to seeing how it all unfolds with plenty more racing and the odd surprise or two.

 

[kinloch brae]

Thanks SW and KB for all the brilliant knowledge in trying to clear the 2 y/o murky waters a little and of course no one knows how any of them will progress as 3 y/olds. As they say, it pays to be better informed so at least we can take an 'educated' guess at trying to get a head start for a decent AP price.

Looking forward to seeing how it all unfolds with plenty more racing and the odd surprise or two.

That's very kind but I am not offering anything 'brilliant' just an opinion at a point in time, which may or may not come to fruition in the future. All you can really hope for is to get enough right to turn a profit.

 

[kinloch brae]

Thunder Moon is definitely very good, and put down an excellent marker for others to surpass - as well as looking like he would be better than he showed.

Its not in the O'B family nature to pack up early and not run again. So we should get the chance to see who is the best of the 2yo colts when the different strands of form come together.

The 2000 Guineas recently is open to horses starting off later in the season (debuting late-August onwards) and winning the Guineas.

The Racing Posts new rating today have these four colts at the top, with the impression that the top three in the list, have more to come.

2020 Leading RPR two-year-olds
117 Thunder Moon
115 Cadillac
115 Chindit
115 Lucky Vega

-------------------------------------

On the other hand in the last decade the 1000 Guineas winning enclosure has very much been the preserve of those conditioned from their 2yo campaign, which started before the end of July, if not a lot earlier.

Love 7 runs at 2, OR 111
Hermosa 7 runs at 2, OR 110
Billesdon Brook 8 runs, OR 99
Winter 3 runs, OR 89 (David Wachman trained at 2 for Coolmore)
Minding 5 runs, OR 120
Legatissimo 3 runs, OR 100 (David Wachman trained for Coolmore)
Miss France 3 runs, OR 112
Sky Lantern 6 runs, OR 111
Homecoming Queen 11 runs, OR 106
Blue Bunting 3 runs, OR 99

The AOB winners, started off before August started, were given lots of runs, Group race campaigns and were all rated 106-120 before the 2yo season finished.
AOB took on the training of Winter at 3.

That puts Shale (5 runs, OR increasing tomorrow to 110+) and Pretty Gorgeous (4 runs, OR 110) right in the mix for the 1000 Guineas, with quicker ground favouring the former, and softer ground the latter.

Good to see the figures and although 4/10 only ran 3 times, the recent winners did see plenty of racing at 2. That said this season has been a little different to anything we have previously seen. Homecoming Queen was something of a freak in that she took in nurseries before bolting up in the Guineas at a massive price. A run that she didn't reproduce.

Personally, I would rather see more of a horse in his/her second year.