Manifesto Novices Chase.
The best hurdlers here are Pic d'Orhy and Millers Bank and there wasn't much between them LTO when Pic d'Orhy jumped better. But I can't help thinking these are good hurdlers who are trying to be chasers. For me the Mildmay course is a searching jumping test. War Lord ticks many trend boxes but I'm not convinced he merits the short price and may be better at 2miles. Pic d'Orhy had no chance against l'Homme Presse but was disappointing to lose 2nd place in the Scilly Isles novices' chase.
The two I like for their jumping are Gin on Lime and Erne River. Erne River has been swimming in shallower waters but had no problem jumping round Wetherby LTO - he just has a nice straightforward running style and has won on good ground over hurdles though may prefer softer ground (there's been rain today). Ok he may just not be good enough against the classier hurdlers. Hard to know that until the race itself. Gin on Lime needs good/gs and is very much a spring/autumn horse. I thought she was going to give My Drogo a real race at Cheltenham until the 2nd last fence incident. She has won after a break before and is a slick jumper.
Selection: Gin on Lime
Next best: Erne River
Jewson Juvenile Hurdle
Horses who run well in the Triumph have a good record in this. In time we may well see that was an above average Triumph and it wouldn't be a big surprise if one of the first three goes on to to take Honeysuckle's crown though she will not relinquish it easily of course (2024 rather than 2023). Winning the Fred Winter wth top wt is an impressive feat but Brazil has had a busier season and I think Pied Piper ran all the way to the line - just beaten by slightly better horses on the day. This race seems either to be won at a short price or a longer double figure price. It seems to me In The Air is the best value of the French imports. I've also been wondering about Hendo's high priced runner but his form suggests he's not good enough for this.
Selection: Pied Piper
e/w In The Air
Aintree Hurdle
Horses that run in the Champion Hurdle do well in this race whereas 5-y-os don't. I can't see many reasons to prefer Zanahiyr over Epatante. Neither have form over 2m4f but I think the older horse is more likely to handle the longer trip. But for Honeysuckle Epatante could have regained her crown this year.
Selection: Epatante
Betway Bowl
Having rewatched some races I'm going to switch to Conflated for this. There was no fluke about the Irish Gold Cup and I liked the way he moved through the field in the Ryanair. I don't think he would have caught Allaho but looked as though he would be a good second. Anything Mullins runs has to be respected. There was no apparent reason for Kemboy's poor run LTO but he ran much better in the Savills Chase and it must be significant that Mullins runs Kemboy in this but enters ABP and TF in the old Whitbread. I wouldn't be surprised if Eldorado Allen runs another good race
Selection: Conflated
Next best: Kemboy
The best hurdlers here are Pic d'Orhy and Millers Bank and there wasn't much between them LTO when Pic d'Orhy jumped better. But I can't help thinking these are good hurdlers who are trying to be chasers. For me the Mildmay course is a searching jumping test. War Lord ticks many trend boxes but I'm not convinced he merits the short price and may be better at 2miles. Pic d'Orhy had no chance against l'Homme Presse but was disappointing to lose 2nd place in the Scilly Isles novices' chase.
The two I like for their jumping are Gin on Lime and Erne River. Erne River has been swimming in shallower waters but had no problem jumping round Wetherby LTO - he just has a nice straightforward running style and has won on good ground over hurdles though may prefer softer ground (there's been rain today). Ok he may just not be good enough against the classier hurdlers. Hard to know that until the race itself. Gin on Lime needs good/gs and is very much a spring/autumn horse. I thought she was going to give My Drogo a real race at Cheltenham until the 2nd last fence incident. She has won after a break before and is a slick jumper.
Selection: Gin on Lime
Next best: Erne River
Jewson Juvenile Hurdle
Horses who run well in the Triumph have a good record in this. In time we may well see that was an above average Triumph and it wouldn't be a big surprise if one of the first three goes on to to take Honeysuckle's crown though she will not relinquish it easily of course (2024 rather than 2023). Winning the Fred Winter wth top wt is an impressive feat but Brazil has had a busier season and I think Pied Piper ran all the way to the line - just beaten by slightly better horses on the day. This race seems either to be won at a short price or a longer double figure price. It seems to me In The Air is the best value of the French imports. I've also been wondering about Hendo's high priced runner but his form suggests he's not good enough for this.
Selection: Pied Piper
e/w In The Air
Aintree Hurdle
Horses that run in the Champion Hurdle do well in this race whereas 5-y-os don't. I can't see many reasons to prefer Zanahiyr over Epatante. Neither have form over 2m4f but I think the older horse is more likely to handle the longer trip. But for Honeysuckle Epatante could have regained her crown this year.
Selection: Epatante
Betway Bowl
Having rewatched some races I'm going to switch to Conflated for this. There was no fluke about the Irish Gold Cup and I liked the way he moved through the field in the Ryanair. I don't think he would have caught Allaho but looked as though he would be a good second. Anything Mullins runs has to be respected. There was no apparent reason for Kemboy's poor run LTO but he ran much better in the Savills Chase and it must be significant that Mullins runs Kemboy in this but enters ABP and TF in the old Whitbread. I wouldn't be surprised if Eldorado Allen runs another good race
Selection: Conflated
Next best: Kemboy
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