Aintree Day 1 2022

[Benjy23]

One of my favourite days of the year but the card doesn't look brilliant to me. The Manifesto looks awful.

Not a load of Irish horses entered but Fakir D'oudaries is of interest if he comes over for the Bowl. Red Rum looks good though - love that race.

Fakir go for the Melling (again) on the Friday I'd imagine. Wouldn't be backing him antepost for the Bowl.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Plan A as it stands.

9/1 looks a bit disrespectful to me, arguably Kemboys best career performance came in this race.
I'm a huge Conflated fan but if that 9/1 is available on the day I won't be letting that pass...

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I make a habit from backing horses at Aintree that struggle after a tough race Cheltenham but I can't help but feel Protektorat could be a class above the rest in the bowl. 3/1 the only price I can see at the moment. Edit: 7/2 with the second... Hopefully someone goes 4s!
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In the conditions at least... Appreciate some of the others have smart from at their specialist tracks.

Good article in RP site about Cheltenham runners, how they performed yesterday and what it means for horses heading to Aintree.
BANC was run at a pace that won't have bottomed them was the main conclusion....

 

[Supermaster]

…that’ll do me, he’s always been a favourite of mine & we know Aintree suits.

I agree with Kemboy for this race. It looks as if this has been the spring target for Kemboy who beat Clan Des Obeaux easily in the race two years ago. Yes Protektorat is the improving 7-y-o but this race is the secondary target and, despite the slow pace, I thought Protektorat had a hard race in the closing stages of the Gold Cup. And Protektorat likes Aintree as well. There's some rain forecast for next week but maybe only enough to change to GS so it may not be soft enough to help Royale Pagaille's chances.
Clan Des Obeaux and Conflated are the main dangers to Kemboy for me.

 

[Benjy23]

Good article in RP site about Cheltenham runners, how they performed yesterday and what it means for horses heading to Aintree.
BANC was run at a pace that won't have bottomed them was the main conclusion....

Yea, had a read of that. Most seem to have faired well especially with the best part of a further week for Aintree.

Pair from the Ultima probably the exception, might be one to keep an eye on. There's also possible excuses for them but Fantastikas was beaten too far out for me to put it down to staying though.

 

[robith]

One of my favourite days of the year but the card doesn't look brilliant to me. The Manifesto looks awful.

Not a load of Irish horses entered but Fakir D'oudaries is of interest if he comes over for the Bowl. Red Rum looks good though - love that race.

Same. Despite my abject Aintree record, I usually love this day. But in the words of Young Jonny Bairstow "weak as piss" this year

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Same. Despite my abject Aintree record, I usually love this day. But in the words of Young Jonny Bairstow "weak as piss" this year

You say that but they do look better than last year's races at this stage

The bowl and Aintree hurdle were dire last year

 

[Deleted member 4957]

You say that but they do look better than last year's races at this stage

The bowl and Aintree hurdle were dire last year

Yep. have to say the G1s last year looked a fairly poor set of renewals, a few got a G1 win on their CVs that probably wouldn't have normally, Monmiral and Belfast Banter spring to mind...

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Yep. have to say the G1s last year looked a fairly poor set of renewals, a few got a G1 win on their CVs that probably wouldn't have normally, Monmiral and Belfast Banter spring to mind...

Monmiral walloped the second in the triumph hurdle so not sure about that

But abacadabras or whatever he's called won a terrible Aintree hurdle, clan des obeaux beat a handicapper in the bowl and that race Belfast banter won was a shocker

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Monmiral walloped the second in the triumph hurdle so not sure about that

I was originally a fan of the race but have we not downgraded that 2021 Triumph ?
Zanihiyr has competed at top table but him aside have they not largely disappointed ?
I know their first season in open company is never easy (following their juvenile season) but Adajio hasn’t got his head in front this term, decent as he may be he isn’t G1 class for me, the rest of that Aintree field were absolute pigs.
Lets hope this years renewals prove to have more depth…

 

[Eggs]

….Kemboy now into 6-1 for the Bowl.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

….Kemboy now into 6-1 for the Bowl.

Not surprised, 9/1 was an insult…

 

[Eggs]

….probably nothing but highlighting a bit of support in the Foxhunters for Myth Buster. Moved from HdB to Sara Bradstock. Into 16-1 with PP, still 33-1 with Lad.

No idea if it will be sustained or on its chances.

 

[charlie]

The Bowl feels like the perfect race for Conflated so I've added him at 7/2. CDO is not the force of old and I take the view that neither is Kemboy. Protektorat had a hard race at Cheltenham and barring Eldorado Allen, the rest either won't go (Fakir) or are much of a muchness. I took the view Conflated should have gone the Gold Cup and 3m is his perfect trip. He was travelling well in the Ryanair and would have probably finished 2nd before taking a fall which he got straight up from, and I think he'll take all the beating here.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

The Bowl feels like the perfect race for Conflated so I've added him at 7/2. CDO is not the force of old and I take the view that neither is Kemboy. Protektorat had a hard race at Cheltenham and barring Eldorado Allen, the rest either won't go (Fakir) or are much of a muchness. I took the view Conflated should have gone the Gold Cup and 3m is his perfect trip. He was travelling well in the Ryanair and would have probably finished 2nd before taking a fall which he got straight up from, and I think he'll take all the beating here.

Agree with pretty much all of that

Bristol, CDO and kemboy not quite as good as they were

Protektorat having to back up quickly after being trained purely with the gold Cup in mind

I do prefer Eldorado Allen to Conflated though. He was the only horse that actually tried to beat Allaho in the ryanair, jumping superbly in the main (though not quite as well as allaho) and conflated/janidil were ridden to come second

I'd have him as the second best in that race and I like him for this though I'm hoping for bigger than 6s on the day

 

[archie]

Looking at the stats for the Bowl, the most significant factor for runners who completed the course in the Gold Cup is whether Aintree is 3 or 4 weeks after Cheltenham. It's only 3 weeks this year and I'd hold that against Protektorat and Royal Pagaille. There is no recent precedent for the Ryanair principals other than Balko Des Flos who ran respectably here in 2019 after finishing down the field at Cheltenham. You'd probably call it a slight negative for Conflated and Eldorado Allen but not insurmountable.

As a general rule, I'd side with those who have been trained for this but they still have to run their race and tactics may play a part. If Kemboy is given a soft lead and gets in a rhythm it might be difficult to peg him back. But then, I would say that.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Porlock Bay 9/1 e/w 5 places looks a very solid bet to me in the Hunters chase

Have had a few quid on

 

[luisgarciaisgod]

I think Brewinupastorm has a great chance in the hurdle. He seems to have improved this season. versatile groundwise, optimum distance and has won over C&D already this season. Zanahyir and Epatante are obviously the two classiest horses in the race but I have the feeling both might be outstayed

 

[Stormez]

See Henderson has decided to send Epatante to the Aintree hurdle rather than Punchestown after all.

Be very interested to see how she gets the trip, May have to reback for the mares now!

 

[FinalFurlong91]

See Henderson has decided to send Epatante to the Aintree hurdle rather than Punchestown after all.

Be very interested to see how she gets the trip, May have to reback for the mares now!

Maybe because constitution Hill is going there instead