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2026 Novice Hurdlers

Quevega said:
Old School looked on a different level don;t you think ?
I'd have had a right go at 9/2 NRNB had I been able to access a mates account quick enough.
already backed her and Henry's 2 but she looks a massive threat to Bambino IMO
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Hills left her at 6/1 for a good while after that race. Crazy pricing with NRNB.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Yeah, probably was, and the 4lbs likely made only a small difference.

That said, if her and Bambino scoot clear in the race I could see Place De La Nation staying on to grab a place and 50's seemed a bit excessive to me.
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Don't get the love for the horse myself.
Handicap maybe ?
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
Hills left her at 6/1 for a good while after that race. Crazy pricing with NRNB.
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Yeah, I bugged a friend yesterday morning with 6 bets for the handicaps and he told me he'd split with his missus.
And din;t have the heart to ask him to be on standby today.
Should probably have backed again before she ran, but I'll find a way to have a bit more on nearer the time now.
 
The 10/1 available on oldschool outlaw a while ago was insane. The 6/1 nrnb after today's race, even more so.

She's already beaten the fave, and the whole idea that bambino was short of fitness is just a guess. She apparently came forward on her second run, even though she beat cornelienne the same distance as she did in her seasonal debut. If anything, I thought oldschool outlaw looked to have improved more out of the two of them looking at that run today.
 
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riccirich said:
The 10/1 available on oldschool outlaw a while ago was insane. The 6/1 nrnb after today's race, even more so.

She's already beaten the fave, and the whole idea that bambino was short of fitness is just a guess. She apparently came forward on her second run, even though she beat cornelienne the same distance as she did in her seasonal debut. If anything, I thought oldschool outlaw looked to have improved more out of the two of them looking at that run today.
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The way she pulled clear between the last two impressed me.

I'd rather be on her at 7/2 than the fav at 2/1 tbh
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
The way she pulled clear between the last two impressed me.

I'd rather be on her at 7/2 than the fav at 2/1 tbh
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100%. Bambino is good and obviously has a good chance, but at prices they have been up to now oldschool outlaw was much better value.

I'm not convinced that bambino came forward a huge amount fitness wise. But even if she did, you could argue that fitness might be the only way she could improve, as she was doing everything right last year and won the bumper, and settled and jumped fine on hurdles debut.

Whereas they look to have taken a slower approach with oldschool outlaw with her only turning the corner this season, so she might have more room for improvement ability wise.
 
If they were priced the other way around, would you back Bambino Fever at 7/2 now over Oldschool Outlaw at 2/1?
 
Kevloaf said:
If they were priced the other way around, would you back Bambino Fever at 7/2 now over Oldschool Outlaw at 2/1?
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Yes, almost certainly.

Don't think there's much between them, but they were priced as if there was. The betting is still too far apart imo
 
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The Honeysuckle at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting is a complication here. Worth about the same as thie MNH but a G1 so better black type. Just a feeling that the 2m4f might suit Oldschool Outlaw better than 2m1f and, although they might try both, they might not. Definitely a NRNB bet if you fancy her.
 
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Luke95 said:
Is it me, or are those RPR’s for the 2m novice hurdle on Sunday a bit low (even with the slow pace)?

Interesting to see if those get changed at all over the next few days. I’m surprised it hasn’t been rated at least on a par with the Christmas race at Leop.
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Very Low

The Irish RPR folk seem to be underplaying the Novice and Juvenile Hurdles form, c/w the GB RPR chaps.

Our races are often one or two decent ones clashing and then a judgement calls on if one or both ran to their best or not.

In IRE those top Graded races are full of half decent, experienced types in a 130-140 OR range, so anything going clear of horses like those deserves more than 144 RPRs.

But if we judge the three as 150 or late 140s horse then that's probably to our advantage as that's what it looked like to me.

We had horses like

Switch From Diesel
Mister Pessimistic
Davy Crockett

absolutely stuffed then

Le Divin Enfant 137 OR btn 9 lengths
Blake 139 OR beaten 9 lengths
Koktail Brut 140 OR btn 6+ lengths

.....all experienced Novices for this time of season.

Stuffed by

Ballyfad - once raced MdnH winner

King Rasko Grey - once raced MdnH winner

Talk The Talk - unlucky not to be a Grade 1 winner 5 weeks earlier (already a 147 RPR for that)

All three of these are clearly loads better than the 137-140 OR horses they beat and

Talk The Talk now has a 148 OR
Ballyfad has a 147 OR
King Rasko Grey has a 146 OR

So the race RPRs for those are clearly wrong.

Blake and Koktail Divin both had 144 RPRs coming in and they got trounced.

So Id have the RPRs 150-149-149

Maybe even 151 Talk The Talk as he got an educational ride out the back and made chunks of ground up to win on the line.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
Very Low

The Irish RPR folk seem to be underplaying the Novice and Juvenile Hurdles form, c/w the GB RPR chaps.

Our races are often one or two decent ones clashing and then a judgement calls on if one or both ran to their best or not.

In IRE those top Graded races are full of half decent, experienced types in a 130-140 OR range, so anything going clear of horses like those deserves more than 144 RPRs.

But if we judge the three as 150 or late 140s horse then that's probably to our advantage as that's what it looked like to me.

We had horses like

Switch From Diesel
Mister Pessimistic
Davy Crockett

absolutely stuffed then

Le Divin Enfant 137 OR btn 9 lengths
Blake 139 OR beaten 9 lengths
Koktail Brut 140 OR btn 6+ lengths

.....all experienced Novices for this time of season.

Stuffed by

Ballyfad - once raced MdnH winner

King Rasko Grey - once raced MdnH winner

Talk The Talk - unlucky not to be a Grade 1 winner 5 weeks earlier (already a 147 RPR for that)

All three of these are clearly loads better than the 137-140 OR horses they beat and

Talk The Talk now has a 148 OR
Ballyfad has a 147 OR
King Rasko Grey has a 146 OR

So the race RPRs for those are clearly wrong.

Blake and Koktail Divin both had 144 RPRs coming in and they got trounced.

So Id have the RPRs 150-149-149

Maybe even 151 Talk The Talk as he got an educational ride out the back and made chunks of ground up to win on the line.
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Completely agree with this. I felt Koktail Brut has run to form. He saw out his race at the DRF and was all out in the Royal Bond too. I can't see how he wasn't seen as the perfect yardstick and awarded 144. Blake probably ran a little below par because he went with the front 3 and was slightly out of his comfort zone. Which puts the front three between 150 and 151.

I think they've seen a blanket finish and assumed its a bad race.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
Very Low

The Irish RPR folk seem to be underplaying the Novice and Juvenile Hurdles form, c/w the GB RPR chaps.

Our races are often one or two decent ones clashing and then a judgement calls on if one or both ran to their best or not.

In IRE those top Graded races are full of half decent, experienced types in a 130-140 OR range, so anything going clear of horses like those deserves more than 144 RPRs.

But if we judge the three as 150 or late 140s horse then that's probably to our advantage as that's what it looked like to me.

We had horses like

Switch From Diesel
Mister Pessimistic
Davy Crockett

absolutely stuffed then

Le Divin Enfant 137 OR btn 9 lengths
Blake 139 OR beaten 9 lengths
Koktail Brut 140 OR btn 6+ lengths

.....all experienced Novices for this time of season.

Stuffed by

Ballyfad - once raced MdnH winner

King Rasko Grey - once raced MdnH winner

Talk The Talk - unlucky not to be a Grade 1 winner 5 weeks earlier (already a 147 RPR for that)

All three of these are clearly loads better than the 137-140 OR horses they beat and

Talk The Talk now has a 148 OR
Ballyfad has a 147 OR
King Rasko Grey has a 146 OR

So the race RPRs for those are clearly wrong.

Blake and Koktail Divin both had 144 RPRs coming in and they got trounced.

So Id have the RPRs 150-149-149

Maybe even 151 Talk The Talk as he got an educational ride out the back and made chunks of ground up to win on the line.
Click to expand...
It appears that they have rated the race around Le Divin Enfant / Mr Pessimistic - they have given the former the same RPR as for his run behind Skylight Hustle at Christmas and the latter just 2lbs lower for a similar beating. Problem with this is that you have Koktail Brut & Blake running 6lb below their Royal Bond form even though they virtually replicated their relative form from that event. If you use these two as a marker then the ratings would be about 6lbs higher exactly as you have said (150/149/149). I see no reason why the Royal Bond form pair would be marked down and there are plenty of arguments to say that Le Divin Enfant showed slightly improved form (was very well backed, Mullins stable under a cloud at Christmas, had Patrick on here (lol!)). I reckon they will nudge it higher over the next few days - I struggle to see how Talk The Talk has got a 3lb lower rating in what looked a stronger race.
 
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