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2026 Novice Hurdlers

Lobos said:
Have about 15 on my list for Supreme/Turners.

Rather than waste bullets and in view of the above analysis , I'll definitely wait until significant declarations from October onwards before adding any for those races.
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Iv'e got 14 you sneak.................. Who's the other :LOL:

Actually got 20 for the Turners though. 14 for the Supreme


Tin hat at the ready
 
Any love for second season hurdler lord Byron?
He wasn’t far off in some graded hurdles towards the end of the season. Turners perhaps?
 
Guinness Village said:
Any love for second season hurdler lord Byron?
He wasn’t far off in some graded hurdles towards the end of the season. Turners perhaps?
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I like him a lot based on the king rasko grey form line and him being a juvenile last season you would hope he would naturally of improved with another year under his belt. He is my only play in the turner's so far i am awaiting the stable tours for some more clues
 
DreamHorse said:
I like him a lot based on the king rasko grey form line and him being a juvenile last season you would hope he would naturally of improved with another year under his belt. He is my only play in the turner's so far i am awaiting the stable tours for some more clues
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With the experience he has then they are always likely to go handicaps now I feel.
 
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One obvious Ante Post tactic for the two shorter novice hurdles is simply to find Willie's and Nicky's best horse. Looking back over recent years though I was surprised as to the extent that these two and the other what I would term "top level" Festival trainers have dominated in the two shorter novice hurdles.

For "top level" Festival trainers, in addition to Mullins and Henderson, I would add Elliott and De Bromhead, and now, given his ammunition, also Skelton. From a personal perspective I would also include Joseph O'Brien in this group albeit his numbers are just a fraction of the others. That's not to denigrate other very competent trainers but to me this group are the absolute premier league when it comes to the graded races at the Festival.

Since the start of the decade there have been 7 runnings each of the Supreme and Turners. If you look at the first 4 home in these races then that is a total of 56 horses. The trainers of these 56 are broken down as follows:

Mullins : 24
Henderson : 7
Elliott : 7
De Bromhead : 5
Skelton : 3
O'Brien : 1
Everyone else : 9 (Hobbs (2nd), King (4th), O'Connell x3 (2nd, 1st, 4th), Hales (4th*), Nicholls (3rd), Martin (4th), Tizzard (4th)

*For the sake of this exercise I included last fence fallers (Blue Lord in this case - and see Goshen below).

All trainers bar the "big 6" have filled only 16% of the available top 4 places in the two shorter novice hurdles this decade (and this falls to less than 10% if you only consider only the top 3). And if it wasn't for Barry O'Connell then the results would be even more paltry.

Based on this, simply focussing on the big 6 seems the way to go (as an aside, Mullins' figures are simply staggering - this year's Supreme was the only one of the 14 races where he didn't have a horse to place in the top 4). For the rest, its not even as if the 9 horses who filled the places were short prices. Only Marine Nationale, Good Land and Bravemansgame were not available at double figure prices on the day and they were all still eminently backable on the day at around the 4/1-6/1 mark.

Its a similar story for the Triumph in that, out of 28 top 4 placings in the last 7 runnings, the spoils are split as follows:

Mullins : 14
Elliott: 3
Skelton: 2
De Bromhead : 2
Henderson: 1
O'Brien: 1
Other: 5 (Nicol (3rd), Owen (3rd), Moore x2 (3rd & 1st(Goshen)*), Pipe (3rd))

Of course its been much more difficult to find Mullins selected recently as he has gone in mob handed and won with 50/1 and 100/1 shots.

As a bit of an exercise that I will try to remember to revisit post the 2027 Festival here are the horses trained by the big 6 that are relatively high up in the betting (40/1 or less) for the two shorter novice hurdles (I have ignored any Fillies and Mares who generally go to the Mares novice). One thing that strikes me is that Willie seems to have less obvious ammunition in the novice hurdles department than in previous years. Additionally, trainers such as Pauling and Derham are spending serious money as they look to break into the top echelons. It will be interesting to see how many, if any, on these lists make this year's top 4 in either race, how many are from these stables but more left field and how many are from other stables. Feel free to add any obvious ones I've missed.

Mullins
Love Me Tender, Bentraghhill, Mailloche, Delamotte, Dromard, Quinteplus, Forty Fifty, Look Me, Minella Academy, Rubyball, The Irish Avatar

Henderson
Feel Gut, Roccontier, Moulins Rouge, Prince Rupert, Down Jones Road, Planters Punch

Elliott
With Nolimit, Charismatic Kid, Skerry Hill, Low Kick

De Bromhead
Crystasia, Minella Machine

Skelton
Spanish Prince, Forthfactor, Walkonseas, Kaiser Ball, Push The Limit, Rattlin Home
 
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Yeah, I’ve done cross doubles with what I feel will be Nickys and willies supreme and arkle horses
 
Nicky Henderson is the crack 2m trainer for me. It is where he excels. He looks to have a strong hand this season, both on performances to date, whether in France, P2P's or Bumpers and also in terms of breeding (if you look at this, as I do).

Whilst there are a couple I like of Willie's too, given how good Hendo is with 2m horses, I think he'll win the Supreme again with the hand he looks to have at his disposal.
 
Bartlett: just noticed that Bet365 have opened a book on the AB novice hurdle. Last year I promised myself not to back anything until the new year but …. Anyone fancy anything?
 
Killiney said:
Bartlett: just noticed that Bet365 have opened a book on the AB novice hurdle. Last year I promised myself not to back anything until the new year but …. Anyone fancy anything?
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Yeah been a graveyard for me for years that race.
What I am keen on doing this year is re-visiting all those formlines from last year and hunt those down being plotted towards the Pertemps...
 
Killiney said:
Bartlett: just noticed that Bet365 have opened a book on the AB novice hurdle. Last year I promised myself not to back anything until the new year but …. Anyone fancy anything?
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I do but nothing backed. The Irish Avatar at 50s, Charismatic Kid and there are 2 others on the early short shortlist but can't think who they are and i'm at work 😭🤮
 
One little stat for those trying to do the impossible and pick the Winner of the Albert in October......

Only one 5yo has ever won the race.
 
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Killiney said:
Bartlett: just noticed that Bet365 have opened a book on the AB novice hurdle. Last year I promised myself not to back anything until the new year but …. Anyone fancy anything?
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….Lucinda Russell normally has a decent one for it, think Paul Ferguson might have mentioned a new recruit or two of hers on the vid recently posted :unsure:
 
I have had a very small bet on Kaiser Ball for the AB. Purchased by Dan Skelton and he has openly stated he is a stayer and will be aimed at the AB. Not many Trainers come out and say a novice will be aimed at the AB. Lets hope he is a better stayer than Kabral Du Mathan ! Also the horse will be very grateful he hasn't got an uncoordinated 6 foot 2 jockey hanging off his back anymore !
 
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