2025 Novice Chasers

[TigerRolllllll]

Wonder if they give Hiddenvalley Lake another crack at chasing?

If think Henry might fancy a go at Stayers….mentioned last year it’s the only one neither he or Rachael had won ….tho Robcour might have other ideas

Doubt he’s good enough, but then this division often cuts up & maybe one for book at long price

i never put anything past Henry these days, nor Rachael….,the number of big winners they get at festival with such a small string compared to Willie is amazing….,both seem to peak in March

it’s a wider point, but I think he focuses on Chelt more than any other trainer possibly …..and the extra focus on tactics there seems to help Rachael perform more than other tracks

 

[Craigy14]

If think Henry might fancy a go at Stayers….mentioned last year it’s the only one neither he or Rachael had won ….tho Robcour might have other ideas

Doubt he’s good enough, but then this division often cuts up & maybe one for book at long price

i never put anything past Henry these days, nor Rachael….,the number of big winners they get at festival with such a small string compared to Willie is amazing….,both seem to peak in March

it’s a wider point, but I think he focuses on Chelt more than any other trainer possibly …..and the extra focus on tactics there seems to help Rachael perform more than other tracks

Completely agree Tiger, that’s why it’s foolish to discount them if beaten through the season, it can work in punters favour getting bigger prices.

Henry has them peaked to perfection at Cheltenham to run the race of their season every year, as you say with the numbers it’s outstanding training.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Been thinking about which horses will probably fall short of the G1 standard and could end up being campaigned out the telly for a mark under 145 for the new turners, came up with

MIstergif
Jango Baie (wouldnt be like hendo albeit)
Predators gold
Asian Master
​​​​​​
And same for the new NHC
Chapeau De soleli
Quai De bourbon
Spanish Harlem
Spread Boss Ted
Yeats Star

I also had Captain Cody, Loughlynn and Lecky Watson who could be staying 'cappers too.


​

 

[Lobos]

Anyone else considered Brighterdaysahead for the Arkle?

 

[Yosser]

Anyone else considered Brighterdaysahead for the Arkle?

I have been trying to find a Gigginstown angle into the Arkle for months and am still struggling. Brighterdaysahead didn't show much speed in the MNH (granted, it was an absolute slog) and would have had her in mind over further but for me i think she would get done for toe in an Arkle. King Of Kingsfield is one that could make the switch but he is a funny horse to gauge in terms of ability. Storm Heart at 100/1 certainly has speed but not sure he has the class and is stepping out of Juvenile company so might not be the answer. It may just be that Gigginstown don't really have a representative but they could just shoe horn one in.

 

[Lobos]

Re BDA, She did show a very good turn of foot to put her Aintree race to bed against the boys and 2m chasing is a very different proposition to 2m hurdles. If they start her out over 2 and she bolts up then perhaps they'll keep her to that distance. Yes they see her as a future GC horse but plenty of GC horses have ran in an Arkle and she doesn't have the option of the Turners now. They could also go the easier MC route but Gordon has several others to fill that gap. I don't see them stretching her out to 3m this season.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Re BDA, She did show a very good turn of foot to put her Aintree race to bed against the boys and 2m chasing is a very different proposition to 2m hurdles. If they start her out over 2 and she bolts up then perhaps they'll keep her to that distance. Yes they see her as a future GC horse but plenty of GC horses have ran in an Arkle and she doesn't have the option of the Turners now. They could also go the easier MC route but Gordon has several others to fill that gap. I don't see them stretching her out to 3m this season.

She’s still relatively young, but does look like real powerful and imo would have absolutely no problem with 3m.
Yep, options and be interesting to see how she’s campaigned.
Currently 25 available for BANC, not bad imo.

 

[opatcho]

I think for anyone (not me) who backed a horse like Jeriko du Reponet with B365 or PP have a nice free bet as he looks the ideal type for the new Novice handicap.
Obviously he might excel over fences and improve too much but his connections will not be slow to react if they think the handicap is his best option.

Ohhhh I like this one
defo one to watch out for
could see him being out of favour by punters if he came out and didn’t win first time out, and then “kept under the radar” for the new turners

 

[Imperial Commander]

I have an issue with TalkSport Bet (run by BetVictor so I assume the same applies with them) and wondered if anyone else has come across this?

TSB have kept up their market for the National Hunt Chase and say existing bets will stand for the new race, completely different to other bookies and what happened in the Turners Chase!

Given that the race will change from a championship race to a 0-145 handicap and the horses they have at the head of the market are Dancing City (Hurdles OR150) and Stellar Story (Hurdles OR148), surely this is just an effort to keep hold of bets on those horses before different horses come into the market?

Interested to hear any other views on this before I make an official complaint to them.....

 

[The Fellow]

if the conditions of the race change , its a straight forward void race , and the bookmaker should close all bets , refund the money and open a new market when ready

 

[Imperial Commander]

if the conditions of the race change , its a straight forward void race , and the bookmaker should close all bets , refund the money and open a new market when ready

Agreed - and every other bookmaker has! I think they may not even understand what the changes are! :grumpy:

 

[Killiney]

I have an issue with TalkSport Bet (run by BetVictor so I assume the same applies with them) and wondered if anyone else has come across this?

TSB have kept up their market for the National Hunt Chase and say existing bets will stand for the new race, completely different to other bookies and what happened in the Turners Chase!

Given that the race will change from a championship race to a 0-145 handicap and the horses they have at the head of the market are Dancing City (Hurdles OR150) and Stellar Story (Hurdles OR148), surely this is just an effort to keep hold of bets on those horses before different horses come into the market?

Interested to hear any other views on this before I make an official complaint to them.....

Just for information ie as a contrast Bet365 are not only returning bets but are honouring them in the ‘new’ NHC.

 

[charlie]

Stellar Story @ 20/1 for the BANC looks a bet IMO.

The AB to BANC is a well trodden path and he's clearly very good. He beat Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter on the level. He beat Largy Hill easily in a maiden hurdle and he subsequently won twice since inc a Grade 3. He went off fav vs Supreme winner Slade Steel and finished 5L back in 3rd. He was just beaten at Limerick over 3m beating Search For Glory who then won a Grade 3. He then won the AB and jumped badly to finish 6L behind Dancing City in the Grade 1 at Punchestown.

Gordon said 'he's gorgeous and a chaser for next season' which I agree with.

He's by Shantou so I kind of expect him to be outpaced at the end of his races like he was LTO, but, when it turns into a real staying test, stay better than most. Profile wise he's lovely.

Shantou produces lots of Cheltenham winners (Ballynagour, The Storyteller, Beware The Bear, Stay Away Fay, Briar Hill, Polly Peachum, Impervious, Chianti Classico to name more recent ones) and the Dams sire produced Gold Cup winner Bob's Worth, NHC winner Back In Focus - so on paper he has lots of ticks.

Stellar Story actually went off fav in a PTP with the winner being Corbetts Cross. He unseated the rider then won his PTP before fetching 310k at the Cheltenham sales.

I love his progressive RPR's too. 128, 136, 131, 139, 151 then 145, and thats in a discipline he wasn't bred for.

Gordon has said 'He was bought to be a big staying chaser​' with Jockey comments like 'all he does is stay'.

We saw that in the AB so perhaps he could be one for the NHC, but, and its an important but, Michael O'leary has been really critical of the Cheltenham changes and I can see him being stubborn and going for the Grade 1 as opposed to the NHC and it becoming a real point of contention for punters.

 

[BigChaang]

A Minor Point ., but i wonder if the Amateur jockey change in the N.H.Chs. will lead to more Runners .
I.E . Will Willie have at least two runners , as if Paul Townend can now ride , then does Patrick still have No1 string , or will.
he be relegated to riding No 2. ??., Same with Gordon Elliott i suppose ., ??. .

 

[JackieMoon33]

A Minor Point ., but i wonder if the Amateur jockey change in the N.H.Chs. will lead to more Runners .
I.E . Will Willie have at least two runners , as if Paul Townend can now ride , then does Patrick still have No1 string , or will.
he be relegated to riding No 2. ??., Same with Gordon Elliott i suppose ., ??. .

Definitely more runners and a more competitive event on the whole. Knowing Willie's competitiveness, PT will be getting first pick and, if he has the horses to qualify, he'll be mob handed too.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Stellar Story @ 20/1 for the BANC looks a bet IMO.

The AB to BANC is a well trodden path and he's clearly very good. He beat Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter on the level. He beat Largy Hill easily in a maiden hurdle and he subsequently won twice since inc a Grade 3. He went off fav vs Supreme winner Slade Steel and finished 5L back in 3rd. He was just beaten at Limerick over 3m beating Search For Glory who then won a Grade 3. He then won the AB and jumped badly to finish 6L behind Dancing City in the Grade 1 at Punchestown.

Gordon said 'he's gorgeous and a chaser for next season' which I agree with.

He's by Shantou so I kind of expect him to be outpaced at the end of his races like he was LTO, but, when it turns into a real staying test, stay better than most. Profile wise he's lovely.

Shantou produces lots of Cheltenham winners (Ballynagour, The Storyteller, Beware The Bear, Stay Away Fay, Briar Hill, Polly Peachum, Impervious, Chianti Classico to name more recent ones) and the Dams sire produced Gold Cup winner Bob's Worth, NHC winner Back In Focus - so on paper he has lots of ticks.

Stellar Story actually went off fav in a PTP with the winner being Corbetts Cross. He unseated the rider then won his PTP before fetching 310k at the Cheltenham sales.

I love his progressive RPR's too. 128, 136, 131, 139, 151 then 145, and thats in a discipline he wasn't bred for.

Gordon has said 'He was bought to be a big staying chaser​' with Jockey comments like 'all he does is stay'.

We saw that in the AB so perhaps he could be one for the NHC, but, and its an important but, Michael O'leary has been really critical of the Cheltenham changes and I can see him being stubborn and going for the Grade 1 as opposed to the NHC and it becoming a real point of contention for punters.

He is a proper stayer so he's only got the BANC and NHC as options and his mark isn't too high that Gordon couldn't get him close to the 145 ceiling. Could be an Irish National horse at some point too.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

He is a proper stayer so he's only got the BANC and NHC as options and his mark isn't too high that Gordon couldn't get him close to the 145 ceiling. Could be an Irish National horse at some point too.

I think Stellar Story could be one for the NHC too, if Gordon campaigns him right. I personally think Better Days Ahead is a better proposition as a BANC horse for the trainer.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I think Stellar Story could be one for the NHC too, if Gordon campaigns him right. I personally think Better Days Ahead is a better proposition as a BANC horse for the trainer.

Both festival winners and neither will be inconvenienced by the step in in trip. I'd expect both to be good enough to run in the BANC but have marks that they could be routed to NHC too. It's whether Gordon want's to go graded or handicap route with them. The 145 ceiling is going to be a headache as we'll all be left holding our breath as to what tax the potential Irish runners might get.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

The 145 ceiling is going to be a headache

Absolutely.
It's the death of ante post punting for the race, impossible to know what route trainers will go and even if they target the race bets could get blown out the water two weeks out by the handicapper, I'd suggest it's impossible to back anything in the race until weights are out...

 

[JackieMoon33]

Absolutely.
It's the death of ante post punting for the race, impossible to know what route trainers will go and even if they target the race bets could get blown out the water two weeks out by the handicapper, I'd suggest it's impossible to back anything in the race until weights are out...

UK horses you've got a bit of a chance with as at least you know they won't be getting hit with any additional tax. But if the belief is that the Irish will dominate the race then it's going to be a late call indeed.