2025 Novice Chasers

[Deleted member 4957]

UK horses you've got a bit of a chance with as at least you know they won't be getting hit with any additional tax. But if the belief is that the Irish will dominate the race then it's going to be a late call indeed.

Yeah, not a race UK horses can win though who knows what the changes, it could produce a Midlands National winner...

 

[Lobos]

Definitely more runners and a more competitive event on the whole. Knowing Willie's competitiveness, PT will be getting first pick and, if he has the horses to qualify, he'll be mob handed too.

Willie will be trying hard to win his first ever Fez Chase Handicap. Unbelievable stat !!

 

[charlie]

He is a proper stayer so he's only got the BANC and NHC as options and his mark isn't too high that Gordon couldn't get him close to the 145 ceiling. Could be an Irish National horse at some point too.

I think Michael O’Leary has fallen out of love with the NHC. Over the last 10 years they've sent 7 runners down the NHC route between 2015-2020, with only 1 runner in the last 4 years. That was Run Wild Fred, at which point Gordon said (in November pre Cheltenham, 'I think the National Hunt Chase could be written all over this horse. Michael O’Leary might have different ideas and it’s a long time from here to March.'). He's made a point of saying in recent days 'The Cheltenham Festival should be about quality, it should be about Grade 1s and quality horses, not more boring handicaps which benefit nobody except bookmakers'. He's a bitter man who holds a grudge and I can see him living up to those words, even though the NHC isn't a Grade 1. You make a good point re the Irish National and I think the risk with Stellar Story, aside from the obvious as to whether or not he's good enough, is that he could be one of those horses that misses Cheltenham altogether. That being said, Michael O’Leary has sent 14 horses down the BANC route and it's a race they aim their better ones at. Given the level he ran to over hurdles I'd be surprised if he didn't blow a mark of 145 fairly quickly tbh. I love these expensive staying chasers that manage to win at the festival over hurdles when thats not what they were bought for. We see it lots of years. AB 1st, 2nd and 3rd turning into very decent chasing prospects the following season, albeit with a few duds thrown in. All things considered, I think 20/1 is a good price.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I think Michael O’Leary has fallen out of love with the NHC. Over the last 10 years they've sent 7 runners down the NHC route between 2015-2020, with only 1 runner in the last 4 years. That was Run Wild Fred, at which point Gordon said (in November pre Cheltenham, 'I think the National Hunt Chase could be written all over this horse. Michael O’Leary might have different ideas and it’s a long time from here to March.'). He's made a point of saying in recent days 'The Cheltenham Festival should be about quality, it should be about Grade 1s and quality horses, not more boring handicaps which benefit nobody except bookmakers'. He's a bitter man who holds a grudge and I can see him living up to those words, even though the NHC isn't a Grade 1. You make a good point re the Irish National and I think the risk with Stellar Story, aside from the obvious as to whether or not he's good enough, is that he could be one of those horses that misses Cheltenham altogether. That being said, Michael O’Leary has sent 14 horses down the BANC route and it's a race they aim their better ones at. Given the level he ran to over hurdles I'd be surprised if he didn't blow a mark of 145 fairly quickly tbh. I love these expensive staying chasers that manage to win at the festival over hurdles when thats not what they were bought for. We see it lots of years. AB 1st, 2nd and 3rd turning into very decent chasing prospects the following season, albeit with a few duds thrown in. All things considered, I think 20/1 is a good price.

The O'Leary factor is a strong consideration for sure. I'd agree he's likeliest runner in the BANC. 20/1 is decent enough for a previous festival winner too. Gordon and Giggy have Search For Glory and Croke Park as other possibilities and then Willie has QDB so O'Leary will likely be have a decent hand.

 

[Quevega]

Absolutely.
It's the death of ante post punting for the race, impossible to know what route trainers will go and even if they target the race bets could get blown out the water two weeks out by the handicapper, I'd suggest it's impossible to back anything in the race until weights are out...

We're likely to know most of the weights in plenty of time and NRNB will be around just in case of any surprises or late mark adjustments.

The old Novice Handicap was absolutely brilliant for antepost (from mid to late January onwards anyway).

I see know reason why the new NH chase handicap will be any different.
After Dublin and trails day at Cheltenham we'll have a fair idea who's likely to run I reckon.

Be quite a narrow band I reckon, the old novice handicap chase was often not much of a handicap as sometimes there was as little as 6/7 pounds between top and bottom weight.
Reasonable chance these 2 races are quite compressed also.
Although the longer distance might struggle to fill up.

 

[Killiney]

Gordon has a habit of testing the water with UK entries even if they don’t run in order to get a hcp mark.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

We're likely to know most of the weights in plenty of time

Be quite a narrow band I reckon

Agree the band will be narrow, what I think will be interesting is the impact this race change has on the Kim Muir.

As for weights it’s still in the hands of the the handicapper what he does, but as Killiney has said Irish trainers might fish around for a mark ahead of the festival so that would help us even if it does mean a bunch of spurious entries…

 

[Lobos]

The O'Leary factor is a strong consideration for sure. I'd agree he's likeliest runner in the BANC. 20/1 is decent enough for a previous festival winner too. Gordon and Giggy have Search For Glory and Croke Park as other possibilities and then Willie has QDB so O'Leary will likely be have a decent hand.

Stellar Story only ran in the Albert because Croke Park was pulled. Might be something in that perhaps with regards to how they are rated at home.

 

[Guinness Village]

Any news on Firefox? I’d marked him down as an arkle type horse, but not heard anything and he doesn’t seem to be a forum fancy

 

[Yosser]

Any news on Firefox? I’d marked him down as an arkle type horse, but not heard anything and he doesn’t seem to be a forum fancy

One of my main bets the Saturday after Cheltenham finished. Had thought there would be a chance he could end up in the Turners but no chance of that now. All systems go for the Arkle i'd say. He is a big lad too with pace. He is right up there as one of the main darts. Gordon isn't afraid of taking Mullins on. I would also say there is half a chance Gordon might even leave his horses a bit undercooked like Willie did last season after seeing the Cheltenham results. He will still go to Down Royal mob handed but i reckon they won't be as fit as they usually are.

 

[Runragged]

I think Michael O’Leary has fallen out of love with the NHC. Over the last 10 years they've sent 7 runners down the NHC route between 2015-2020, with only 1 runner in the last 4 years. That was Run Wild Fred, at which point Gordon said (in November pre Cheltenham, 'I think the National Hunt Chase could be written all over this horse. Michael O’Leary might have different ideas and it’s a long time from here to March.'). He's made a point of saying in recent days 'The Cheltenham Festival should be about quality, it should be about Grade 1s and quality horses, not more boring handicaps which benefit nobody except bookmakers'. He's a bitter man who holds a grudge and I can see him living up to those words, even though the NHC isn't a Grade 1. You make a good point re the Irish National and I think the risk with Stellar Story, aside from the obvious as to whether or not he's good enough, is that he could be one of those horses that misses Cheltenham altogether. That being said, Michael O’Leary has sent 14 horses down the BANC route and it's a race they aim their better ones at. Given the level he ran to over hurdles I'd be surprised if he didn't blow a mark of 145 fairly quickly tbh. I love these expensive staying chasers that manage to win at the festival over hurdles when thats not what they were bought for. We see it lots of years. AB 1st, 2nd and 3rd turning into very decent chasing prospects the following season, albeit with a few duds thrown in. All things considered, I think 20/1 is a good price.

Firstly on the progressive RPRs, that's not uncommon as a novice works its way through the grades and the standard gets stronger. His last three races all saw the winner attain an RPR of 151.

I think the whole season will be geared to getting this a good weight in the Irish National. Brown Advisory is a grade 1 but worth £102k to the winner last season. Irish National was 270k Euros! With the great record of Irish Novice Chasers in the race as well then it is a prize they want to win. They went close with Run Wild Fred a few years ago albeit he wasn't an Albert Bartlett winner. Wouldn't be surprised if they still took in the BANC as a nice prep for it though. Not convinced it has the class to compete in the highest grade barring a slog on soft ground. Should be able to gauge after a race or two what the intention will be with the horse for the rest of the season.

 

[charlie]

Firstly on the progressive RPRs, that's not uncommon as a novice works its way through the grades and the standard gets stronger. His last three races all saw the winner attain an RPR of 151.

I think the whole season will be geared to getting this a good weight in the Irish National. Brown Advisory is a grade 1 but worth £102k to the winner last season. Irish National was 270k Euros! With the great record of Irish Novice Chasers in the race as well then it is a prize they want to win. They went close with Run Wild Fred a few years ago albeit he wasn't an Albert Bartlett winner. Wouldn't be surprised if they still took in the BANC as a nice prep for it though. Not convinced it has the class to compete in the highest grade barring a slog on soft ground. Should be able to gauge after a race or two what the intention will be with the horse for the rest of the season.

Yes it's common progression, but the fact it culminated in a festival win and respectable level post festival was the point I was driving at.

The prize money angle is a fair one. With over 5 weeks between races so he could take in both to be fair.

Could be a Don Poli type. Lots of class winners of the BANC, lots of out and out stayers too.

 

[Runragged]

Yes it's common progression, but the fact it culminated in a festival win and respectable level post festival was the point I was driving at.

The prize money angle is a fair one. With over 5 weeks between races so he could take in both to be fair.

Could be a Don Poli type. Lots of class winners of the BANC, lots of out and out stayers too.

Obviously with the Turners and NHC being handicaps then we could see a bigger field BANC which in turn could lead to the profile of the winner being more of a staying type as opposed to having a bit of pace about them like recent winners.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Stellar Story only ran in the Albert because Croke Park was pulled. Might be something in that perhaps with regards to how they are rated at home.

Stellar Story also wasn’t Jacks pick on the day either. But Jockeys can get it wrong from time to time.

 

[JackieMoon33]

One of my main bets the Saturday after Cheltenham finished. Had thought there would be a chance he could end up in the Turners but no chance of that now. All systems go for the Arkle i'd say. He is a big lad too with pace. He is right up there as one of the main darts. Gordon isn't afraid of taking Mullins on. I would also say there is half a chance Gordon might even leave his horses a bit undercooked like Willie did last season after seeing the Cheltenham results. He will still go to Down Royal mob handed but i reckon they won't be as fit as they usually are.

Duplicate post

 

[JackieMoon33]

One of my main bets the Saturday after Cheltenham finished. Had thought there would be a chance he could end up in the Turners but no chance of that now. All systems go for the Arkle i'd say. He is a big lad too with pace. He is right up there as one of the main darts. Gordon isn't afraid of taking Mullins on. I would also say there is half a chance Gordon might even leave his horses a bit undercooked like Willie did last season after seeing the Cheltenham results. He will still go to Down Royal mob handed but i reckon they won't be as fit as they usually are.

Gordon changed to that method last year but still couldn’t land many blows against Mullins when it mattered most.

 

[Quevega]

https://www.racingpost.com/news/ire...vice-chasers-for-gordon-elliott-aae5s6d5F7KK/

Elliot's likely novice chasers,
No real surprises from whats been discussed but FYI

 

[Monty's Pass]

I know he's not going to be a novice this season but has anybody heard anything regarding the well being of Indiana Dream? Definitely one I'm looking forward to seeing again with a view to the Ryanair although 16's doesn't appeal at this stage.

im sure he'll get a mention in the imminent stable tour but couldn't find any news online.

 

[darlojim]

I know he's not going to be a novice this season but has anybody heard anything regarding the well being of Indiana Dream? Definitely one I'm looking forward to seeing again with a view to the Ryanair although 16's doesn't appeal at this stage.

im sure he'll get a mention in the imminent stable tour but couldn't find any news online.

What is something that is more brittle than glass?

He's made of that stuff

Simply not an antepost proposition whatsoever - shame as he seemed hugely talented.

 

[Monty's Pass]

What is something that is more brittle than glass?

He's made of that stuff

Simply not an antepost proposition whatsoever - shame as he seemed hugely talented.

Ah made out of Weetabix... shame. Hopefully he can make the track this side of Christmas and one to keep a close eye on towards the spring if staying sound.