2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Faugheen_Machine]

Totally agreed Darlo. Totally 100%. As in, totally.

Let’s just see what surfaces in the next 2 hrs, the next 24 hrs, the next 3 days etc before we reserve our judgment on a) todays running, b) the Supreme market and c) Facile Vega not being, actually, any good.

We probably, in all honesty, don’t really know yet.

If everyone had watched this race today and said ‘Facile Vega’s well overrated’ were exactly the same punters who said in the same breath ‘ I knew Gentleman de Mee was an outstanding 2 mile Champion Chase contender’,with the the same evidence each horse has supplied us thus far, it would be zero punters.

In essence, let’s not overreact. Let’s not get busy on keyboards. There’s no less chance that Facile Vega isn’t an exceptional horse, any less than Gentleman De Mee is your next Champion Chase winner.

Why wait 3 days? He was 4/1 NRNB straight after the race, that was the time to back him.

Be greedy when others are fearful!

 

[Hurricane fly]

...and Ballymore NRNB worth taking ....

Some legend on here has Il Etait Temps at 25/1 I think for the Supreme

I know you're talking about yourself :welcoming: but 33s and 200.0(after Christmas) does make me feel better about having nothing on FV

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm not sure many, if any, we're backing Facile for the Supreme at 4/6 - hopefully it was with B365 of they were - but he's surely a bet now at 7/2 NRNB. I've been against him all season because he's always been too short, but now he's too big with the obvious excuses from today.

No way they make that mistake again and he'll be dropped in.

Not tempted to chance the 6/1 with Boyle?

 

[Kevloaf]

I know you're talking about yourself :welcoming: but 33s and 200.0(after Christmas) does make me feel better about having nothing on FV

Very good!

I actually should have gone back in at 33s NRNB but left it.


Lay that off now for a free bet and you're laughing.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not tempted to chance the 6/1 with Boyle?

I can't get on with them, Kev.

They are opening a shop in my town in next couple of weeks but I'm guessing the price will be gone by then

 

[Kevloaf]

I can't get on with them, Kev.

They are opening a shop in my town in next couple of weeks but I'm guessing the price will be gone by then

inbox me hun

 

[Kevloaf]

Why wait 3 days? He was 4/1 NRNB straight after the race, that was the time to back him.

Be greedy when others are fearful!

I have backed him now, not my biggest winner ... but in the book :applause:

Absolutely agree that it was always a price thing.... can adjust closer to the time if needs be.



Not sure whether to back at 5/1 NRNB in the Ballymore

 

[darlojim]

Here ya go.
Novices from jumping the first hurdle to race end a 4/5L up on the Irish champion. Circuit times within 2L,Novices are already around 18L ahead jumping the 4th hurdle and nearly 20L jumping the last on the far side(7th), from there Irish makes up 16L of which 7/8L is from the last. Tale of two races really, obvs gone too fast up front Vega but winner seen it out well enough off a searching pace. Irish not gone fast enough early doors which is evident by proximity of 4th(Piper) of 6L with all on the bridle until 2 out still IMO .Winner done well to put as much between rest as he has from 2 out and clearly wouldn't mind a better gallop.

As I thought...

Write the run off, and plough back in!

For some perspective:

Jim on Twitter: "Sectionals are absolutely brutal from Facile Vega... Suicidal. https://t.co/f9NgI5zwOp" / Twitter​

Look at the distance he's ahead of 2m champ hdlers :bi_polo:

 

[Hurricane fly]

I'm happy to give up NRNB to move from 7/2 to 6/1.

Ive never heard Willie criticise rides so much, makes you wonder if there is some discontent in the camp. Imagine if they just slapped an offer down infront of Rachael to come in and replace him.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Here ya go.
Novices from jumping the first hurdle to race end a 4/5L up on the Irish champion. Circuit times within 2L,Novices are already around 18L ahead jumping the 4th hurdle and nearly 20L jumping the last on the far side(7th), from there Irish makes up 16L of which 7/8L is from the last. Tale of two races really, obvs gone too fast up front Vega but winner seen it out well enough off a searching pace. Irish not gone fast enough early doors which is evident by proximity of 4th(Piper) of 6L with all on the bridle until 2 out still IMO .Winner done well to put as much between rest as he has from 2 out and clearly wouldn't mind a better gallop.

It was a very poor ride from Paul

Surely should've realised he was going too fast and allowed hms high definition to go on

What happened to him on Lossiemouth was bad luck but that ride on facile was just il judged

He may not have won anyway but hes essentially given him no chance

 

[Bollinger]

Why wait 3 days? He was 4/1 NRNB straight after the race, that was the time to back him.

Be greedy when others are fearful!

Exactly. I’ve taken the 5/1 on Betfair (still 5/1 as I type), though not NRNB.

I think the only point I was generally trying to make was if any punter has a betting slip with ‘Double’ written on it and ‘Facile Vega not to place @ 1/33 let alone win at 4/9 because I think he’s gonna go off so fast and burn out 3f out AND Gentleman de Mee to prove he’s far, far better than a 1/4 fast improving Blue Lord’ (that’s your double betting slip), I’d love to see those betting slips from punters.

Let’s not overreact.

Is Facile Vega a horrible betting proposition for the Supreme? Probably not.

Is Gentleman de Mee a little hotpot for the Champion Chase? Probably not.


We’ll all find out in 5 weeks time, and I doubt any opinions before then will prove otherwise.

Just me being brutally honest - we’ll all know then guys & girls. March 14th & March 15th.

 

[Outlaw]

It was a very poor ride from Paul

Surely should've realised he was going too fast and allowed hms high definition to go on

What happened to him on Lossiemouth was bad luck but that ride on facile was just il judged

He may not have won anyway but hes essentially given him no chance

Clearly he's not been allowed to show his best today and completely agree rider given him very little chance but I'd want to be seeing it soft day 1 if rocking up in the Supreme personally. I still doubt he has the extra gear off a pace and down the line were going to be seeing him at intermediate/staying trips IMO.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Clearly he's not been allowed to show his best today and completely agree rider given him very little chance but I'd want to be seeing it soft day 1 if rocking up in the Supreme personally. I still doubt he has the extra gear off a pace and down the line were going to be seeing him at intermediate/staying trips IMO.

He's definitely not the superstar they were lauding before the season started, he looked good in his first 2 starts without looking exceptional

But may still be good enough to win the Supreme

certainly wouldn't rule him out based on today

also wouldn't be backing him right now I'd be waiting to see if anything comes out regarding his well being

 

[Kevloaf]

Exactly. I’ve taken the 5/1 on Betfair (still 5/1 as I type), though not NRNB.

I think the only point I was generally trying to make was if any punter has a betting slip with ‘Double’ written on it and ‘Facile Vega not to place @ 1/33 let alone win at 4/9 because I think he’s gonna go off so fast and burn out 3f out AND Gentleman de Mee to prove he’s far, far better than a 1/4 fast improving Blue Lord’ (that’s your double betting slip), I’d love to see those betting slips from punters.

Let’s not overreact.

Is Facile Vega a horrible betting proposition for the Supreme? Probably not.

Is Gentleman de Mee a little hotpot for the Champion Chase? Probably not.


We’ll all find out in 5 weeks time, and I doubt any opinions before then will prove otherwise.

Just me being brutally honest - we’ll all know then guys & girls. March 14th & March 15th.

People on here put Gentleman De Mee up before his run today by the way :encouragement:

 

[Dandrew99]

Just me being brutally honest - we’ll all know then guys & girls. March 14th & March 15th.

Or just March 15th...?

Need to see comments next few days (which will inevitably not be informative at all) but I suspect with a very good Moscow Flyer winner and Gaelic Warrior about, I'd be favouring Facile Vega stepping up in trip now. Can see it being even messier than the DD/SG stuff last season with 3 horses involved (arguably 4 with IET).

 

[Winging The Last]

I'm happy to give up NRNB to move from 7/2 to 6/1.

Ive never heard Willie criticise rides so much, makes you wonder if there is some discontent in the camp. Imagine if they just slapped an offer down infront of Rachael to come in and replace him.

The rumour from earlier in the season is that Rachael will retire after this season to head to the breeding shed.

To me Danny will be Willie’s number one after Paul, whenever that will be

 

[Kevloaf]

The rumour from earlier in the season is that Rachael will retire after this season to head to the breeding shed.

To me Danny will be Willie’s number one after Paul, whenever that will be

Been with Willie since before 2008, 22 festival winners .... he's going absolutely nowhere.

Only a few years older as well I'd guess?

 

[Bollinger]

People on here put Gentleman De Mee up before his run today by the way :encouragement:

I’d like to think there was - in a 5 horse race with Gentleman being a 2nd favourite horse in the betting, I’d like to think a decent % of punters fancied him to win today.

But I just feel people have overreacted today a touch on Facile Vega being overrated. I genuinely feel, on todays running, there’s little evidence to suggest this. I feel people need to wait a few hours, wait until Mullins has well & truly put Townend in his place for the run today, before making an educated opinion on whether he’s as good or as bad as people think he might be.

Let’s wait until after Cheltenham. Or Punchestown. Or maybe his 2 mile hurdling or chasing career after Punchestown next year.

If someone said a month ago that Facile Vega would finish last in a novice hurdle race the same day as Gentleman De Mee would emerge as a very genuine Champion Chase winner, you’d say both were nigh on impossible.

A bit like the pundits on Sky Sports just saying they feel Erling Haaland has possibly ‘joined the wrong team, having scored 25 goals in 20 appearances for them

Just because they’ve just lost.

 

[Kevloaf]

I’d like to think there was - in a 5 horse race with Gentleman being a 2nd favourite horse in the betting, I’d like to think a decent % of punters fancied him to win today.

But I just feel people have overreacted today a touch on Facile Vega being overrated. I genuinely feel, on todays running, there’s little evidence to suggest this. I feel people need to wait a few hours, wait until Mullins has well & truly put Townend in his place for the run today, before making an educated opinion on whether he’s as good or as bad as people think he might be.

Let’s wait until after Cheltenham. Or Punchestown. Or maybe his 2 mile hurdling or chasing career after Punchestown next year.

If someone said a month ago that Facile Vega would finish last in a novice hurdle race the same day as Gentleman De Mee would emerge as a very genuine Champion Chase winner, you’d say both were nigh on impossible.

A bit like the pundits on Sky Sports just saying they feel Erling Haaland has possibly ‘joined the wrong team, having scored 25 goals in 20 appearances for them

Just because they’ve just lost.

If you hadn't backed Facile Vega so early, would you be jumping to his defense?

if you had backed Gentleman De Mee, or put him up for the QMCC, would you be so quick to knock him back?

Pick the Bones out of that.

 

[Bollinger]

If you hadn't backed Facile Vega so early, would you be jumping to his defense?

if you had backed Gentleman De Mee, or put him up for the QMCC, would you be so quick to knock him back?

Pick the Bones out of that.

You’re absolutely bang on!!

We’ll all find out the answers come Cheltenham, for sure.

But possibly, not before.