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2023 Novice Hurdlers

Bollinger said:
Exactly. I’ve taken the 5/1 on Betfair (still 5/1 as I type), though not NRNB.

I think the only point I was generally trying to make was if any punter has a betting slip with ‘Double’ written on it and ‘Facile Vega not to place @ 1/33 let alone win at 4/9 because I think he’s gonna go off so fast and burn out 3f out AND Gentleman de Mee to prove he’s far, far better than a 1/4 fast improving Blue Lord’ (that’s your double betting slip), I’d love to see those betting slips from punters.

Let’s not overreact.

Is Facile Vega a horrible betting proposition for the Supreme? Probably not.

Is Gentleman de Mee a little hotpot for the Champion Chase? Probably not.


We’ll all find out in 5 weeks time, and I doubt any opinions before then will prove otherwise.

Just me being brutally honest - we’ll all know then guys & girls. March 14th & March 15th.
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I know this isn’t the thread for it but you’re very quick to knock GDM. Let’s not argue his demolition of Edwardstone last year at Aintree was arguably the best 2m novice performance of anything either side of the Irish Sea. If BL could improve this year and be seen as a viable champion chase contender, GDM was equally as entitled.
 
Willie having a media day today. Quoted as saying, at this stage, his preferred target for DRF winner Gaelic Warrior is the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Supreme remains an option but Ballymore could suit best.
 
PresentingPercy said:
Willie having a media day today. Quoted as saying, at this stage, his preferred target for DRF winner Gaelic Warrior is the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Supreme remains an option but Ballymore could suit best.
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stick it in my veins
 
PresentingPercy said:
Willie having a media day today. Quoted as saying, at this stage, his preferred target for DRF winner Gaelic Warrior is the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Supreme remains an option but Ballymore could suit best.
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Potentially Gaelic W Champ K and iep all to the bally, could be the race of the meeting..
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Trainer of Good Land says he wins, so that’s that.
Said he wins the Supreme as well.
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Only given 141RPR for the other day so looks like the racing post aren’t huge fans. In fairness if the trainer says he wins that’s it then, was probably on messing about sat
 
Studfarm254 said:
Only given 141RPR for the other day so looks like the racing post aren’t huge fans. In fairness if the trainer says he wins that’s it then, was probably on messing about sat
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Bit low that rating, given the winning time. I know they mess with the rails a lot at Leopardstown but it looked a decent gallop and overall time to me. They seem to have rated it based on the ones in behind running on, not being that good. I reckon when Timeform man does his sectionals it'll show a very smooth par/efficient performance from the winner.

They gave Minella Cocooner 148 and Crooner 148 for staying on, last year and the time was 18 seconds slower on similar ground (both yielding officially, and watered to get to that so likely to be very similar)
Possibly better ground this year looking at the first day times as a whole, but it's still a decent time difference.

I'd have been inclined to be nearer the 150 figure myself and the racing post ratings guys are therefore muppets :highly_amused:
 
Spoke to a couple of lads about this after reading/seeing snippets of Mullins bashing PR(justified as a whole across the weekend tbf).

Do we think he’d be giving Danny the same stick if it was IET going hard infront & it was FV winning like the winner did? I don’t think he would and it’s almost like he’s become attached to him like no other maybe because of the romantic Quevega tie in?

Also what price would FV be if he’d of done what IET did, I think we’d be looking at 4/6 at best wouldn’t we?
 
Quevega said:
Bit low that rating, given the winning time. I know they mess with the rails a lot at Leopardstown but it looked a decent gallop and overall time to me. They seem to have rated it based on the ones in behind running on, not being that good. I reckon when Timeform man does his sectionals it'll show a very smooth par/efficient performance from the winner.

They gave Minella Cocooner 148 and Crooner 148 for staying on, last year and the time was 18 seconds slower on similar ground (both yielding officially, and watered to get to that so likely to be very similar)
Possibly better ground this year looking at the first day times as a whole, but it's still a decent time difference.

I'd have been inclined to be nearer the 150 figure myself and the racing post ratings guys are therefore muppets :highly_amused:
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Like over here they put yielding in the going like we do soft to deter NR seemingly. First 3 races Sat before any rain about that’s good ground has to be on what’s been churned out.

It does feel a bit low that 141 and he’s done it well even beating stayers ultimately(a couple in behind might end up well hcapped start of next season tbf) it’ll be a fair jump again in the Ballymore thou of course deserves his shot(AB still would of been best option IMO).
 
Outlaw said:
Spoke to a couple of lads about this after reading/seeing snippets of Mullins bashing PR(justified as a whole across the weekend tbf).

Do we think he’d be giving Danny the same stick if it was IET going hard infront & it was FV winning like the winner did? I don’t think he would and it’s almost like he’s become attached to him like no other maybe because of the romantic Quevega tie in?

Also what price would FV be if he’d of done what IET did, I think we’d be looking at 4/6 at best wouldn’t we?
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The problem with IET going too short, assuming that's your suggestion, is that FV has already beaten him. Which is why the form of the race is questionable at best. Add that to the obvious conclusion of FV going off too hard and the markets as confused as I am.

Do agree that Mullins seems to be overly keen on FV though. Compared to some others he's got/had
 
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Benjy23 said:
The problem with IET going too short, assuming that's your suggestion, is that FV has already beaten him. Which is why the form of the race is questionable at best. Add that to the obvious conclusion of FV going off too hard and the markets as confused as I am.

Do agree that Mullins seems to be overly keen on FV though. Compared to some others he's got/had
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He also wasn't great in the Triumph last year either so maybe the course doesn't suit or perhaps he's just improved a great deal. Something to ponder and potentially put punters off including me.
 
Benjy23 said:
The problem with IET going too short, assuming that's your suggestion, is that FV has already beaten him. Which is why the form of the race is questionable at best. Add that to the obvious conclusion of FV going off too hard and the markets as confused as I am.

Do agree that Mullins seems to be overly keen on FV though. Compared to some others he's got/had
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I've not made total sense of much of how the the Irish Contingent potentially tie in at 2m tbh now for all FV is prob better than he's shown but the winner has had to run at least in the high 140s however anyone looks at it and seemingly has no issue off a strong pace.​

Lobos said:
He also wasn't great in the Triumph last year either so maybe the course doesn't suit or perhaps he's just improved a great deal. Something to ponder and potentially put punters off including me.
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He was mad keen in the Triumph to be fair to him and plenty thought he'd be half decent going forward, not sure anyone would of thought he'd be in amongst the Supreme favs mind and much like when GDM was fav for the RSA it feels a bit lacklustre a second season novice in amongst the protagonists even thou that's pretty lazy to say.
 
opatcho said:
been watching Good Land with keen interest
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Very underated by many. Unfashionable trainer puts people off for some reason. Ask yourselves 'What price if trained by Willie? '.......if that's lower than his current odds then he's clearly still value.
 
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Benjy23 said:
The problem with IET going too short, assuming that's your suggestion, is that FV has already beaten him. Which is why the form of the race is questionable at best. Add that to the obvious conclusion of FV going off too hard and the markets as confused as I am.

Do agree that Mullins seems to be overly keen on FV though. Compared to some others he's got/had
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Facile Vega suicide fractions aside.
Of the 2 races involving them both, which race would you say had the better form for festival ambitions ?
I'd say yesterday, by a fair margin.
I'd give IET as much excuse for his defeat as Facile has for yesterday.
But only one of them has won a hurdle grade 1 ran at a championship gallop.
 
You're going to have to help me on the IET as much excuse for his defeat part?

The rest I agree with the theory behind. IET has clearly won the better race like, and has the G1 hurdles form in the book. Although FV's champion bumper obviously still entitles him to a great deal of respect, even if a different game. I wasn't really making a case for either tbh, as my point of was it's almost impossible to do so with any confidence :excitement:
Might disagree that a 'championship' gallop is necessarily a suicidal as well though.
 
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