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2023 Novice Hurdlers

Benjy23 said:
Genuine question: any history of a Mullins third string winning the Supreme?
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Don't know about third string but wasn't Champagne Fever double figures until jockey bookings came out and Ruby chose him over the Paul Nicholls option? I know that's not quite the same scenario as you've asked about but I guess my point is we don't yet know the scenario a couple of days out from the race. It could be Facile Vega and Diverge are the only two Mullins horses in the race (unlikely), in which case Diverge will probably be single figures, then if Townend chose him, he'd crash in price.
Alternatively, Diverge may not even come over and people on at NRNB will get their money back.

​​​​​​Agree though it is silly season when all a Mullins horse has to do is fart and it causes a price crash :biggrin-new:
 
That Horse said:
Don't know about third string but wasn't Champagne Fever double figures until jockey bookings came out and Ruby chose him over the Paul Nicholls option? I know that's not quite the same scenario as you've asked about but I guess my point is we don't yet know the scenario a couple of days out from the race. It could be Facile Vega and Diverge are the only two Mullins horses in the race (unlikely), in which case Diverge will probably be single figures, then if Townend chose him, he'd crash in price.
Alternatively, Diverge may not even come over and people on at NRNB will get their money back.

​​​​​​Agree though it is silly season when all a Mullins horse has to do is fart and it causes a price crash :biggrin-new:
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Aye, my 'mad' scenario was along the lines of Townend ditching Facile Vega and IET to ride Diverge... I think I'd want 16s on that happening though to be honest. Nevermind for him to go on and win the race afterwards.

That Horse said:
Also, not same race but The Nice Guy was possibly third string?
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The AB is a much more likely race to throw up a shock winner than the Supreme. I've not checked but I imagine the average SP of the winner between the 2 races in the last 10 years or so is hugely different.
 
This convo is making me feel a little relieved I don’t make a book. On the surface It feels so much less stressful only backing horses you fancy. It sounds like folks feel obliged to back a horse or worse still scared not to. Is it really enjoyable coz I wouldn’t enjoy feeling obliged to back diverge or scared not to. Not a judgement...a genuine question.

it also feels like the firms have got wise to the art of book building as they see how it creates false demand which in turn provides opportunity for firms to offer less value.

I am not judging, I get how de risking has its appeal, and I get how it is an art form in its own right, but is it enjoyable ?
 
Rooster Booster said:
I am not judging, I get how de risking has its appeal, and I get how it is an art form in its own right, but is it enjoyable ?
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If someone is good at it, I'm sure they find it enjoyable but it sounds like an awful amount of time and effort, and seems to need an ear to the ground 24/7 to keep on top of cashout, what's going on on the exchanges, etc.

I found keeping a diary this year made it less enjoyable for me, I just want to look at all the lovely horsies
 
Rooster Booster said:
This convo is making me feel a little relieved I don’t make a book. On the surface It feels so much less stressful only backing horses you fancy. It sounds like folks feel obliged to back a horse or worse still scared not to. Is it really enjoyable coz I wouldn’t enjoy feeling obliged to back diverge or scared not to. Not a judgement...a genuine question.

it also feels like the firms have got wise to the art of book building as they see how it creates false demand which in turn provides opportunity for firms to offer less value.

I am not judging, I get how de risking has its appeal, and I get how it is an art form in its own right, but is it enjoyable ?
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Most of the time, It's like queuing for ages to get on a fairground ride (in one of those snake like queue's, with people talking bollocks all around you), but when you're on the ride it's like the teacups.

So it depends if you're a "teacups" person or "The Big One" type.

I'm a teacups man (with a bit of danger) - But I fucking hate queueing and inane chatter so that's why next year I'm changing strategy.
It's probably not worth the months of hassle, for a gentle ride on the day.

Spectre has the best idea, as he does both.
 
Quevega said:
Most of the time, It's like queuing for ages to get on a fairground ride (in one of those snake like queue's, with people talking bollocks all around you), but when you're on the ride it's like the teacups.

So it depends if you're a "teacups" person or "The Big One" type.

I'm a teacups man (with a bit of danger) - But I fucking hate queueing and inane chatter so that's why next year I'm changing strategy.
It's probably not worth the months of hassle, for a gentle ride on the day.

Spectre has the best idea, as he does both.
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Yes I remember Spectres strategy, he has his book and he has his additional bets which become the horses he wants to win emotionally if you like. A) that takes a fair amount of available funds I’d say and b) personally I couldn’t feel the same buzz about the emotional selections knowing I have a safety net in place. Again each to their own.

I queued for 3 hours to get on a ride with my step son at universal. I’m afraid of heights but strangely love the thrill of the scary rides. He was telling me how excited he was throughout the three hours, it was really good bonding actually until the rope was lifted and we were finally there and he had a complete meltdown. 3 fucking hours and I had to pretend it was ok and I didn’t want to go on anyway, I consoled myself with a deep fried turkey drumstick the size of Texas.
 
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I think a good case can be made for Diverge. Willie made an interesting comment after Lot Of Joy won the other day about her learning with the transition from the flat to jumps. I believe you could say something similar about Diverge. If you look back at his first race behind High Definition, he was way too keen and subsequently paid the price. He seemed to learn his lesson the last day and settled and jumped much better and after finishing a couple of lengths in front of one of Elliots in his first race he beat him by 27 lengths the last day in a hack canter. A friend of mine who does speed figures (well known former journalist) told me that was the best novice performance of the season to date. By Frankel out of a Group winning mare, he wont lack flat speed, so if he jumps well and settles early, he must be in with a shout.
Something similar could be said Princess Zoe in the Mares Novice, but that is for another thread.
 
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Bad scope for Rare Edition apparently.
 
A name I didn't expect to be running in novice hurdles this season is Zefiro Dodville.

Winner of a PTP in the Autumn, he is owned by Robcour. He's from a nice family and related to Zaiyad, Zaynar and Zaidpour.

Not one for Cheltenham this year but one I'll be keeping an eye on for the future.
 
AaronLad said:
ok, he clearly wasn't the same horse yesterday as he's been in his previous runs.
Time to be brave, while others are fearful?
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Wouldn’t go in again(assume your into him plenty by now) at this point in time,his jumping is still an issue & no reason for him to be an obvious shortener in either market until race day now.

Well Raubaud shitting up tomorrow would obvs make yday far more excusable and confirm he's well treated(He's obvs better than yday), get him in the County off 138 then, less of an issue with Mullins G1 lurkers and if he was Mullins/Gordy that's where he'd be going now.
 
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Benjy23 said:
Aye, think you're right in that Ruby (or others with connections to Mullins) going round tipping him at previews is the best chance of him being backed.

Ebaziyan a nice shout to be fair. Was Mullins only runner but was winning on the back of a Maiden hurdle, so about as close as we're going to get I'd imagine. 16 years ago as well. Maybe 16s is the right price :welcoming:​​​​​​​
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Might not have to wait for Previews. Mullins bringing the hype himself! :distant:

https://twitter.com/jkeene124/status/1624091375636557830?s=46&t=PP79hwTnNBFFPuJcBP3LwA
 
charlie said:
Added Affordale Fury @ 100's on the exchange for the Albert Bartlett. I think there's a fairly strong case that is (or rather was) a ridiculous price (FWIW I still think 25's is fair). He'd be 4/4 had he stood vs American Mike and was always winning that battle IMO. American Mike is 11/1 for the AB with the winner, Dawn Rising, generally 20's. Sandor Clegane​ is priced up at 12/1 - he's just beat a horse called Sam's Choice 16L - Affordale Fury beat the same horse 18L. HDVL is 7/1 after beating Monbeg Park 8L in impressive fashion. Affordale Fury beat Monbeg Park 3L with Noel saying he 'did everything wrong but still won'. He cruised in turning for home and could have easily doubled that winning margin if not for making silly mistakes and encountering issues in running from the loose horse. Those are rock solid form lines with market principals. He's entered in the Lawlors of Naas which is what you want to see. I know he fell LTO, but he was so much better than his previous start. Jumped faster and quicker - it was a confident ride from Cooper too. He's only 4 and I love watching them learn their trade and get progressively better. Granted, not many 5 year olds win this. You have to go back to 2014 to find the last one - Very Wood. He was also trained by Noel Meade and also took in Galway, Navan and Naas before winning the AB at 33/1. Its a shame 100's isn't widely available but if he drifts back out I think he's worth backing, but think 25/1 is a fair price all things considered.
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Its latest Exhibition @ 66/1 all over again ffs
 
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