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2023 Novice Hurdlers

Istabraq said:
Too right, Brazil is 142 over the Irish Sea and with Gaelic Warrior far less exposed and arguably as good I'd say if he was rated now he'd be north of 145...
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He was getting 8lb off Brazil in the boodles though.
So 134 seems right
 
Quevega said:
He was getting 8lb off Brazil in the boodles though.
So 134 seems right
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Yeah I guess I'm overplaying the unexposed issue, and the fact they rate GW highly and recent noises are very strong.
I know RPRs are contentious but GW was given 150 for his reappearance, the second (who was in a battle with the third all the way up the straight) had previously been given an RPR of 109.
The highest RPR gained by Brazil to date is 143.
None of that means a great deal as it's only someone's opinion at the Racing Post, but for me, who is even less qualified than someone at the Racing Post, there's zero chance any official GW rating would be in the 130s...
 
Istabraq said:
Yeah I guess I'm overplaying the unexposed issue, and the fact they rate GW highly and recent noises are very strong.
I know RPRs are contentious but GW was given 150 for his reappearance, the second (who was in a battle with the third all the way up the straight) had previously been given an RPR of 109.
The highest RPR gained by Brazil to date is 143.
None of that means a great deal as it's only someone's opinion at the Racing Post, but for me, who is even less qualified than someone at the Racing Post, there's zero chance any official GW rating would be in the 130s...
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Absolutely. There is no way Gaelic is a 130's horse. I suspect he was high 130's / low 140's last year and was 'well in', but inexperience and not having run for 283 days took its toll. It certainly looked that way. He travelled all over the field and did his own work from the front, then looked to get tired after a mistake at the last so IMO so its definitely a debut that can be marked up. When you look at the level Brazil has run to so far coupled with Gaelic Warriors debut, it further reinforces the view he's probably a mid 140's horse at the very least and thats a lovely starting point for a novice hurdler in the hands of WPM. Next test will tell us a lot more because the other day was barely a test, but onwards and upwards.
 
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These are the Irish ratings don't forget so they look to have ignored his maiden win and based his mark around Brazil. Whose Irish mark of 142 looks quite reliable now after more runs.
His official Irish Handicap mark is 134. Fact.

I suspect both would be rated around 4lb higher in the UK, based on Brazil getting taxed 4lb for the boodles.
What they're both capable of going forward will play out.

If I was Willie, the betfair hurdle would be worth entering to see what mark he gets.
 
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Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but no entry for Jet Powered in the Kennel Gate - a race that was namechecked by Nicky after his debut.

Possibly just keeping him back for the Tolworth next month?
 
RoadToCheltenham said:
Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but no entry for Jet Powered in the Kennel Gate - a race that was namechecked by Nicky after his debut.

Possibly just keeping him back for the Tolworth next month?
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Yep. Tolworth sounded like the main target following his debut victory. Going down the Constitutional route. Could be a hot little race with Authorised Speed going that way as well.
 
RoadToCheltenham said:
Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but no entry for Jet Powered in the Kennel Gate - a race that was namechecked by Nicky after his debut.

Possibly just keeping him back for the Tolworth next month?
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Possibly, but I'm not convinced a Tolworth will suit him, especially if it comes up soft/heavy like it seems to do.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see him follow more the Shishkin route and the Sidney Banks.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Possibly, but I'm not convinced a Tolworth will suit him, especially if it comes up soft/heavy like it seems to do.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see him follow more the Shishkin route and the Sidney Banks.
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Wasn't the Sydney Banks just an after thought for Shishkin?? He started out later and Fell which messed up his intended route. They then had to get 2 runs into him quickly.
Jet Powered, like CH, is likely imo to have one more run before the Fez and the Tolworth fits in lovely.
 
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charlie said:
Absolutely. There is no way Gaelic is a 130's horse. I suspect he was high 130's / low 140's last year and was 'well in', but inexperience and not having run for 283 days took its toll. It certainly looked that way. He travelled all over the field and did his own work from the front, then looked to get tired after a mistake at the last so IMO so its definitely a debut that can be marked up. When you look at the level Brazil has run to so far coupled with Gaelic Warriors debut, it further reinforces the view he's probably a mid 140's horse at the very least and thats a lovely starting point for a novice hurdler in the hands of WPM. Next test will tell us a lot more because the other day was barely a test, but onwards and upwards.
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I think there’s tons of improvement in him and his extra experience at the festival will help as well against novices. We know the festival atmosphere is so unique, even more so before the first race of the day.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
I think there’s tons of improvement in him and his extra experience at the festival will help as well against novices. We know the festival atmosphere is so unique, even more so before the first race of the day.
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Definitely. As far as 4 year old debuts go it was a bloody good effort all things considered. There was quite a bit of blue about for yesterday too. Willie looks to hold all the cards for the Ballymore at the moment.
 
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Middle_Of_March said:
I think there’s tons of improvement in him and his extra experience at the festival will help as well against novices. We know the festival atmosphere is so unique, even more so before the first race of the day.
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Great to see you back MoM, it was just after Gaelic Warrior got done on the line in March you went AWOL, we were fearing the worst.
Great to see you haven't lost faith too...
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Possibly, but I'm not convinced a Tolworth will suit him, especially if it comes up soft/heavy like it seems to do.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see him follow more the Shishkin route and the Sidney Banks.
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There is the 2m hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day that Nicky likes too. Altior went there and Mister Fisher off the top of my head.
 
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Lobos said:
Wasn't the Sydney Banks just an after thought for Shishkin?? He started out later and Fell which messed up his intended route. They then had to get 2 runs into him quickly.
Jet Powered, like CH, is likely imo to have one more run before the Fez and the Tolworth fits in lovely.
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Not sure it was an after thought, I, personally, think it just suited him, however, you may be right, the fall was far from ideal, so they did need runs in to him.

I'm not convinced the Tolworth is the right race for him, and as JackieMoon33 has just noted, there is the race at Kempton on Boxing Day too which could be an option.
 
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JackieMoon33 said:
There is the 2m hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day that Nicky likes too. Altior went there and Mister Fisher off the top of my head.
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The race that often gets forgot too is the 2m race at Haycock towards the end of January.
Jonbon won it last year and the likes of Cinders and Ashes and Peddlers Cross won it before their Ballymore/Supreme wins, but I'm not sure Hendo is in love with Haydock, didn't he have a moan up about the course recently ?
 
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charlie said:
Definitely. As far as 4 year old debuts go it was a bloody good effort all things considered. There was quite a bit of blue about for yesterday too. Willie looks to hold all the cards for the Ballymore at the moment.
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I think our friend Gav Lynch put him up yesterday hence the bits of blue.
 
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