• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2023 Novice Hurdlers

Doesn't sound daft at all. Not sure the English capper will be so lenient this time around. That said, he failed to deliver this year as you say. Mullins Novices, Hurdlers and Chasers are impossible to sort out at this stage.

Did he fail to deliver? Here are the facts. He got beat by a JP plot, despite making all the running, losing around 10-12 lengths in the race by jumping right and notably got tired after the last. On another day with a lead and not going so right at every hurdle, he wins that by 10 lengths and we are talking about him right now as a champion hurdle candidate. I haven’t lost faith at all.
 
Did he fail to deliver? Here are the facts. He got beat by a JP plot, despite making all the running, losing around 10-12 lengths in the race by jumping right and notably got tired after the last. On another day with a lead and not going so right at every hurdle, he wins that by 10 lengths and we are talking about him right now as a champion hurdle candidate. I haven’t lost faith at all.

Champion hurdle candidate? If he had won a boodles off 129? You can't be serious
 
Did he fail to deliver? Here are the facts. He got beat by a JP plot, despite making all the running, losing around 10-12 lengths in the race by jumping right and notably got tired after the last. On another day with a lead and not going so right at every hurdle, he wins that by 10 lengths and we are talking about him right now as a champion hurdle candidate. I haven’t lost faith at all.

I'd argue your fact that he lost 12 lengths, seems more of a fictional statement to me.
 
I'd argue your fact that he lost 12 lengths, seems more of a fictional statement to me.

You've done well to only have one issue with it.
The "JP plot " ran off top weight and went off at 10-1 vs 13/8F
It looked like you needed to be on the pace in that race, looking at the front 2.
But the biggest worry for me is the Faith bit.
Faith in what ?
He's well handicapped ?
Or the next big thing ?

He was a great bet last season because he looked on paper to have been given a handy mark.
He now looks a promising novice hurdler after finally breaking his maiden at the fifth attempt, against mushrooms and dogshit. (in a quick time :highly_amused:)
I'd be wary of this horse being a bit of a loss chasers type.
If I get mugged once, I'll walk a different way home the next day. And probably carry a weapon.:eek:

He looks like one you may get a run for your money with as Mullins will be determined to try and get some credit back, as his unusually emotive/pointed interview after his defeat in the Boodles showed.

As stated previously I have backed him after his last race though, just in case it's as good as it looked.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Eudipe
  • Like
Reactions: nortonscoin200
A couple of observations on the Gaelic Warrior debate (bias admission: I've backed him).

Firstly, it is very difficult to make all and win a 21 runner two-mile race at the Festival - or any Festival race for that matter. I know there have been notable exceptions but it's not a front-runner's track imo.

Secondly, I reckon the Ballymore trip will be a far better fit for Gaelic Warrior. Two miles over hurdles is too short for him - he's a galloper who gets tapped for toe over the minimum trip.

I've just rewatched replays of all five of his career starts and that's evident from all 3 of his runs at Auteuil.

And Brazil had the better turn of foot in the Boodles despite not seeming to be travelling as well as Gaelic Warrior turning into the home straight.

Out of curiosity I timed (roughly) the final two circuits of GW's romp at Tramore and made the second lap a second or two quicker than the first lap.

Ok, it was nothing more than a training spin really - but Gaelic Warrior certainly wasn't stopping at the finish.

IF he proves top class I believe it'll be his stamina that gets him there - and he'll grind the opposition into submission.

Though if he turns up in the Ballymore I hope there'll be enough pace in the race to allow Paul to sit behind the leaders and go for home as they turn in.

At this stage, I agree with Quevega that he's clearly of interest due to price/connections/latest rpr and quick time at Tramore but it's too early to say if he's the real deal.

But he'll certainly have some nice chasing options next year when you could see him being a big player in the Turners, Brown Advisory or the NHC.
 
A couple of observations on the Gaelic Warrior debate (bias admission: I've backed him).

Firstly, it is very difficult to make all and win a 21 runner two-mile race at the Festival - or any Festival race for that matter. I know there have been notable exceptions but it's not a front-runner's track imo.

Secondly, I reckon the Ballymore trip will be a far better fit for Gaelic Warrior. Two miles over hurdles is too short for him - he's a galloper who gets tapped for toe over the minimum trip.

I've just rewatched replays of all five of his career starts and that's evident from all 3 of his runs at Auteuil.

And Brazil had the better turn of foot in the Boodles despite not seeming to be travelling as well as Gaelic Warrior turning into the home straight.

Out of curiosity I timed (roughly) the final two circuits of GW's romp at Tramore and made the second lap a second or two quicker than the first lap.

Ok, it was nothing more than a training spin really - but Gaelic Warrior certainly wasn't stopping at the finish.

IF he proves top class I believe it'll be his stamina that gets him there - and he'll grind the opposition into submission.

Though if he turns up in the Ballymore I hope there'll be enough pace in the race to allow Paul to sit behind the leaders and go for home as they turn in.

At this stage, I agree with Quevega that he's clearly of interest due to price/connections/latest rpr and quick time at Tramore but it's too early to say if he's the real deal.

But he'll certainly have some nice chasing options next year when you could see him being a big player in the Turners, Brown Advisory or the NHC.


….50-1 with PP/BFSB to win Bally & a/r in 2024.
 
Champion hurdle candidate? If he had won a boodles off 129? You can't be serious

So he wins the boodles for Mullins and then comes out on his first run of the following season and wins by 86 lengths and you don’t think he would be talked about as a Champion Hurdle candidate? Of course he would.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MTR
I'd argue your fact that he lost 12 lengths, seems more of a fictional statement to me.

It’s got very frosty on here hasn’t it. Blimey I’ve only been back on the individual race threads a couple of days and its growing tiring already. The tone is very snipey. Never used to be like that. Not necessarily just your comment but the whole thread.

As they say on dragons den.. I’m out.
 
So he wins the boodles for Mullins and then comes out on his first run of the following season and wins by 86 lengths and you don’t think he would be talked about as a Champion Hurdle candidate? Of course he would.

All very hypothetical, if he had won the boodles he wouldn't be a novice so the class of horse he would have faced on his re-appearance would have been better. He hasn't even gone favourite for any of the novice hurdle races after winning by 86 lengths. If he'd won the boodles I personally think he would have went novice chasing. I'm sorry if you felt my comment was "snipey" it wasn't intended that way. I was genuinely asking whether you was serious, and for someone who hardly contributes to the forum anymore to criticise the people that do is just rude imo :tyrannosaurus:
 
I know you thrive on getting a reaction but that’s a bit of a low blow. Not sure rubbing it in is necessary whatsoever

I didn’t realise you were the only one to have a losing bet on him.

I Just get concerned about people’s mental state that’s all. Shouldn’t care really, but I do.

And it wasn’t meant that way - there’ll be more than one person wanting payback from this horse. And as we all know- It don’t always happen. It’s called chasing and it’s not advisable.

Fingers crossed it does payback, and at the right time. For those that it really matters too.

And disagreeing with someone or questioning there thought process is to get a reaction.
Its a debating forum not a head nodders back slapping agreement orgy.
 
Last edited:
All very hypothetical, if he had won the boodles he wouldn't be a novice so the class of horse he would have faced on his re-appearance would have been better. He hasn't even gone favourite for any of the novice hurdle races after winning by 86 lengths. If he'd won the boodles I personally think he would have went novice chasing. I'm sorry if you felt my comment was "snipey" it wasn't intended that way. I was genuinely asking whether you was serious, and for someone who hardly contributes to the forum anymore to criticise the people that do is just rude imo :tyrannosaurus:

Second half of that final sentence is really unnecessary imo
 
Fair bit of blue (and red) around for a few today, mostly Mullins horses.

Not suggesting for one minute that targets have been decided, just highlighting, as it seems to be coming from the 'right' bookmakers.
 
Fair bit of blue (and red) around for a few today, mostly Mullins horses.

Not suggesting for one minute that targets have been decided, just highlighting, as it seems to be coming from the 'right' bookmakers.

Have to say it's been a while since I checked the Champion Hurdle market and I'm slightly surprised to see State Man at 5/1, was that haircut from his reappearance or is that recent ?
Facile Vega Ballymore drift is telling, and obviously the trimming of Gaelic Warriors price...
 
Have to say it's been a while since I checked the Champion Hurdle market and I'm slightly surprised to see State Man at 5/1, was that haircut from his reappearance or is that recent ?
Facile Vega Ballymore drift is telling, and obviously the trimming of Gaelic Warriors price...

I'm not sure about State Man, he's not one I've kept an eye on personally.

Yeah, there are some notable changes in some markets, not least that of the Ballymore.
 
Have to say it's been a while since I checked the Champion Hurdle market and I'm slightly surprised to see State Man at 5/1, was that haircut from his reappearance or is that recent ?
Facile Vega Ballymore drift is telling, and obviously the trimming of Gaelic Warriors price...

8s but best priced 10s before run this season, trimmed to 6s after his win then 5s with Honey getting beat. Odds checker lists all history if clicking on said horse for future reference of others.
 
No entry for Facile Vega in the Lawlor's of Naas next month. Full list:

Absolute Notions
Affordale Fury
Champ Kiely
Dawn Rising
Gaelic Warrior
Grangeclare West
Il Etait Temps
Imagine
Inothewayurthinkin
Inthepocket
Intranet
Irish Point
Itswhatunitesus
Joyeux Machin
Kalanisi Star
Monbeg Park
Senecia
Spanish Harlem
Tag Man
Three Card Brag​