• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2023 Novice Hurdlers

JackieMoon33 said:
I was beginning to worry about the form of that race as the third and fourth can’t get their heads in front. A couple of the shrewder point to point judges had Arctic Bresil down as the best horse in that race despite finishing second, and he fetched the biggest price at the sales.

Very good performance and it seems like they’ll go the two mile route, although future results could change that. Looks like he’s got the tools for 2m but that division looks potentially very deep this season.
Click to expand...

I did as much myself despite Henry throwing Arctic Bresils name amongst some pretty hot entries over the New Year period. I kept telling myself that Henry won't shy from a challenge and whilst that could be true still I'd say he will be least one of the likelier horses in the conversation regardless of where he ends up. I feel hypocritical given I can be vocal about trainers avoiding each others horses but I do hope Henry goes by his own mantra of finding the right race he thinks his horse can win and the presence of Facile Vega in the 2 mile novice hurdling division may be enough to force his hand to up him in trip despite what he's said today.
 
Lbur4288 said:
I did as much myself despite Henry throwing Arctic Bresils name amongst some pretty hot entries over the New Year period. I kept telling myself that Henry won't shy from a challenge and whilst that could be true still I'd say he will be least one of the likelier horses in the conversation regardless of where he ends up. I feel hypocritical given I can be vocal about trainers avoiding each others horses but I do hope Henry goes by his own mantra of finding the right race he thinks his horse can win and the presence of Facile Vega in the 2 mile novice hurdling division may be enough to force his hand to up him in trip despite what he's said today.
Click to expand...

I tend to your earlier view; Henry will run in the race which best suits his horse. Bear in mind if the ground had been better suited, he’d have taken on FV in his maiden hurdle.

Genuinely not sure that Gaelic Warrior is going to end up an easier task than FV either.
 
Exar Essay said:
I tend to your earlier view; Henry will run in the race which best suits his horse. Bear in mind if the ground had been better suited, he’d have taken on FV in his maiden hurdle.

Genuinely not sure that Gaelic Warrior is going to end up an easier task than FV either.
Click to expand...

It's hard to say this far out although I did think at the time that Henry was hanging in to see if FV ended up running and backed out late that morning. That said, the entries he has over Xmas tell us how highly regarded he is by HdB and his debut yesterday backed that up. Whatever path he goes down I'm sure I'll have some fun watching him, thankfully eliminated the race target by taking up some TWAR a while back (I had him down as a Bartlett sort:topsy_turvy:).
 
Should you boys be playing Arctic EW at his current price rather than hoping he'll beat the Mullins and Henderson monopoly in the race ? Surely that's the sensible play ?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eggs
Alastor is an intriguing add to pp/betfairs supreme market @20/1.
3rd in an Italian derby, 2nd in a french listed race now trained by a certain wpm.
I'm struggling to find any mention of him in his stable tours, he does have an entry at xmas.
 
Lobos said:
Should you boys be playing Arctic EW at his current price rather than hoping he'll beat the Mullins and Henderson monopoly in the race ? Surely that's the sensible play ?
Click to expand...

I really should utilise each way more.
 
Do we think we saw GW do what he did because they realised FV should of/could of done the same so they deployed different tactics?

It seemed they were being cautious with FV, which probably was right as he was quite green imo.​
 
I think with RPR's it's a personal choice how much these will guide decisions.
I rarely take them into account, but will note them and on occasions it will have some influence. Mainly just for the Ultima though (merry xmas doctorwu )

Any rating based partially on timings is going to be sketchy in certain circumstances and should be taken as such IMO.
The variables that go into an eventual final time are immense, so it's rarely close to exacting.
And the tendency for the Racing Post guys to re visit ratings also grates with me a little.
Ultimately it is human's that apply the rules/ratings and this will often include some form of opinion bias as well.

The recent Royal Bond is a good example of when the ratings should have been treated with caution IMO as the ratings acheived were in maiden hurdles for some of the participants and there is a natural tendency to upgrade RPR's according to class, so any that had already ran in listed or graded races would likely be higher - But until you've had the chance to operate at a higher level then you're unlikely to be rated as such. If your maiden just happens to be run steadily then you're not gonna get a high rating.

Prior to Royal Bond -

Marine Nationale 125
Irish Point 121
Ashroe Diamond 116
Champ Kiely 142

Just on this race, I thought it was run at near Championship pace so rate the form quite highly.
Champ Kiely may improve for further in time and probably wasn't helped with his slightly keen approach on the pace, however, there was never too much between the pack and so the 2 that pulled clear need marking up IMO, and Champ Kiely has now acheived 138 142 138 in his last 3 starts so is that his level ???
 
Last edited:
Myflutters said:
Do we think we saw GW do what he did because they realised FV should of/could of done the same so they deployed different tactics?

It seemed they were being cautious with FV, which probably was right as he was quite green imo.​
Click to expand...

GW is a confusing abbreviation as Willie has both Gaelic Warrior and Grangeclare West.
 
  • Like
Reactions: robith
charlie said:
GW is a confusing abbreviation as Willie has both Gaelic Warrior and Grangeclare West.
Click to expand...

Oh 100% agree. It's very confusing and both are very similar. novice hurdlers, trained by WPM that are potentially ballymore bound.
I was so confused few weeks back when someone said "GW ran well at navan" or something. Gaelic warrior has never ran in Navan:livid::livid: GW would be gaelic warrior in my head as we have talked about him much more on this from last year's boodles.
But i do think we should just call them their full names on this going forward??
 
I'd like to be a fly on the wall and watch how they calculate a debut RPR of 150 for Gaelic Warrior. He was obviously really impressive, but it's also very obvious it was nothing more than a schooling session vs absolute trash. I'm trying to think of a novice hurdler who has been given 150 or higher on debut.
 
Gaillard Du Mesnil & Gentleman de Mee both being GDM always does for me!
 
  • Like
Reactions: MTR
charlie said:
I'd like to be a fly on the wall and watch how they calculate a debut RPR of 150 for Gaelic Warrior. He was obviously really impressive, but it's also very obvious it was nothing more than a schooling session vs absolute trash. I'm trying to think of a novice hurdler who has been given 150 or higher on debut.
Click to expand...

Only Champ (150) on debut in last 6 years from my notes. If they gave him 150 at the time!

I found GWs really surprising too. It's a massive rating from a very odd race. I am assuming the sectionals were really impressive but would like to see confirmation.
 
As it happens, the official handicapper has left Gaelic Warrior on 134.
 
charlie said:
I'd like to be a fly on the wall and watch how they calculate a debut RPR of 150 for Gaelic Warrior. He was obviously really impressive, but it's also very obvious it was nothing more than a schooling session vs absolute trash. I'm trying to think of a novice hurdler who has been given 150 or higher on debut.
Click to expand...

Is it because its his 5th run over hurdles and was 132 previously?
 
Lbur4288 said:
I really should utilise each way more.
Click to expand...

I've changed tact this year and switched to EW. Pretty much all doubles using top 3/4 in betting. I'll see how it works out and take it from there.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom