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2023 Novice Hurdlers

I'm really hoping Luccia doesn't end up Supreme bound if she easily wins the Tolworth. I don't think she will. Epatante was Hendo's best novice in 2019 and she still went to the Mares novice. I also think he won't want her to face FV if he continues to show how good he is and would prefer an easier chance of winning the Mares novice.

I cashed out on Between Waters when she kept on getting entered for 2m4+ races.
 
I'd be fairly sure Luccia gets only the one entry at Cheltenham, Mares Novice Hurdle.
The Tolworth I'd imagine is only being considered because the timing works well for her and of course it's a track she seemed to love when hacking up in that bumper last season.
I'd be shocked if the Supreme was even considered...
 
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HesTheOne said:
He did have entries i think for over 2 and half, didn’t happen likely with the weather. Was on my radar as I thought he looked good in France. Fact he didn’t run in any of the 2m or even have entries he must not be near top the pile of novice hurdles for NH.

JP handicap awaits..
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Is it now four runs for novices to be eligible for the Cheltenham handicaps? If so, any novice that hasn’t seen the track already is unlikely to be running in a handicap this season.
 
Istabraq said:
I'd be fairly sure Luccia gets only the one entry at Cheltenham, Mares Novice Hurdle.
The Tolworth I'd imagine is only being considered because the timing works well for her and of course it's a track she seemed to love when hacking up in that bumper last season.
I'd be shocked if the Supreme was even considered...
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If she wins a grade 1 Tolworth which is worth twice as much as the mares novice hurdle (grade 2).
You think they'll not consider the supreme ?

There's a lot of things to consider of course - all the usual.
But I'd be sure they'd enter her.
And look at how both races are shaping up.
If she runs against the Moore horse in the Tolworth they'll also have a tenuous form line with FV also.

The only reason they wouldn't would be the owners having really serious money down for the mares novice and unable to lay it off.
But by this time they'd be 37K better off anyway.

Epatante was campaigned in much lower grade races in her novice year, little shitty events worth 4k. Against bobar. YoungHustler
 
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He’s ran 2 or 3 in the MNH before, given he has a few this year he can do it again.

Luccia owners don’t seam to have any others. Best win beyond her was a grade 3 handicap at Ascot in Jan-18.

If she was your best chance of your first winner as a owner - would you send her down the supreme with a pack of geldings going a million miles an hour?
 
Quevega said:
Epatante was campaigned in much lower grade races in her novice year, little shitty events worth 4k. Against bobar. YoungHustler
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Agreed on how she was campaigned but she was still the best 2m novice the yard had in 2019. I seem to remember that she was the stables banker of the meeting and she just didn't run her race.
 
Quevega said:
If she wins a grade 1 Tolworth which is worth twice as much as the mares novice hurdle (grade 2).
You think they'll not consider the supreme ?
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Running her in a Supreme would be such an unlike Hendo thing to do and he appears to have others for that, Jet Powered amongst them, plus the prospect of taking on Facile Vega can't be over appealing with an inexperienced mare.
It's only a hunch but knowing how Hendo looks after his horses I would imagine the only reason the Tolworth has been mentioned is because of her liking for Sandown.
Personally I don't think they'd have any issues dropping to a G2 if they won the G1 Tolworth, the chances are the Tolworth will be a 5/6 runner affair of UK trained horses only, and if we're honest the form of any G1 without Irish raiders has to marked down....
 
Istabraq said:
Running her in a Supreme would be such an unlike Hendo thing to do and he appears to have others for that, Jet Powered amongst them, and the prospect of taking on Facile Vega.
It's only a hunch but knowing how Hendo looks after his horses I would imagine the only reason the Tolworth has been mentioned is because of her liking for Sandown.
Personally I don't think they'd have any issues dropping to a G2 if they won the G1 Tolworth, the chances are the Tolworth will be a 5/6 runner affair of UK trained horses only, and if we're honest the form of any G1 without Irish raiders has to marked down....
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I made that mistake last year :highly_amused:
 
Istabraq said:
Running her in a Supreme would be such an unlike Hendo thing to do and he appears to have others for that, Jet Powered amongst them, plus the prospect of taking on Facile Vega can't be over appealing with an inexperienced mare.
It's only a hunch but knowing how Hendo looks after his horses I would imagine the only reason the Tolworth has been mentioned is because of her liking for Sandown.
Personally I don't think they'd have any issues dropping to a G2 if they won the G1 Tolworth, the chances are the Tolworth will be a 5/6 runner affair of UK trained horses only, and if we're honest the form of any G1 without Irish raiders has to marked down....
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Running a mare in the tolworth is an un Hendo thing to do too I’d say. I can’t remember one but I’m sure somebody will point any out.

Jet powered still has to prove it and if he doesn’t improve a good deal on his next run then he’d be a fair chunk below her if she wins the tolworth. All the others that have been mentioned have yet to be seen, some have entries over further and so on, I cant remember the last time Hendo didn’t run his best novice hurdler in the supreme. Perhaps that’s just an alternative way to look at it. Maybe 2012 but darlan was no mug. So that would be an un Hendo like thing to do also I’d say.

In terms of prestige I’d say the tolworth trumps the mnh. I’d also say finishing second in a supreme would be a bigger achievement than winning a mnh. There can’t be much difference in prize money either I’d imagine? So if it’s avoiding FV that folks are pinning their hat on I’m not entirely convinced by that one.

Fair enough if the owners have had a shit load on but is this fact or guesswork...it would be nice if somebody can state for sure otherwise it’s meaningless in this debate imo

She’d already have her grade 1 for winning the tolworth and would then be the leading supreme contender for the UK at that point. It is not inconceivable folks.

Despite everything I have posted I would guess that it would still be 60/40 in favour of the mnh if she won the tolworth but it’s just that ....a guess....that’s because I am not in the know, I do not know the owners, i have no connection with the yard and I have no information about bets placed etc but the dogmatism of some is unwise imo.
 
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Quevega said:
If she wins a grade 1 Tolworth which is worth twice as much as the mares novice hurdle (grade 2).
You think they'll not consider the supreme ?

There's a lot of things to consider of course - all the usual.
But I'd be sure they'd enter her.
And look at how both races are shaping up.
If she runs against the Moore horse in the Tolworth they'll also have a tenuous form line with FV also.

The only reason they wouldn't would be the owners having really serious money down for the mares novice and unable to lay it off.
But by this time they'd be 37K better off anyway.

Epatante was campaigned in much lower grade races in her novice year, little shitty events worth 4k. Against bobar. YoungHustler
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I'm assuming you dont mean monetary value. with the winner of the tolworth receiving ?40,052.60 last season while the winner of the mares novice received ?59,083.50.
This seasons races have ?70,000 and ?105,000 prize money respectively.
 
AaronLad said:
I'm assuming you dont mean monetary value. with the winner of the tolworth receiving ?40,052.60 last season while the winner of the mares novice received ?59,083.50.
This seasons races have ?70,000 and ?105,000 prize money respectively.
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You assume wrong
good point.
I got it wrong
Doh !
 
Quevega said:
You assume wrong
good point.
I got it wrong
Doh !
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The rest of the point you are trying to make I completely agree with and think people need to be cautious backing her at such short odds for the mares novice when Nicky clearly holds her in high regard and he seems to be pouring cold water on Jet powered.
 
AaronLad said:
The rest of the point you are trying to make I completely agree with and think people need to be cautious backing her at such short odds for the mares novice when Nicky clearly holds her in high regard and he seems to be pouring cold water on Jet powered.
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What, pouring cold water cos at this stage he’s not as good as Altior, Shishkin and CHill were?
Not many are!!
 
Winging The Last said:
A third season novice with a win rate of 0% 0/6 runs over hurdles. James Du Berlais has a better win rate :devilish:
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Maybe you could have picked a better example other than a horse that has already finished a close festival runner up and one that has won twice on the flat improving to a near 100 flat rating. Good effort though:very_drunk:
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
What, pouring cold water cos at this stage he’s not as good as Altior, Shishkin and CHill were?
Not many are!!
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The reasons for doing it may be valid but the fact he's done it would be alarming if i'd backed him.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
I would say he’s just being truthful to us as to where he is compared to his good ones, no more than that.
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But he compared them with supreme winners, and ultimately that's what he would've wanted from this lad, and he's clearly not seeing the same in him as he did the 3 you mentioned. I would also say he's being truthful and he knows jet powered has no chance of winning a supreme.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
I would say he’s just being truthful to us as to where he is compared to his good ones, no more than that.
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Isn't he saying in a roundabout fashion that he doesn't see this one winning the supreme ?
That's how I take it, and I've backed it.
I interpret as him saying he's not as good as they were, not are, or became.
 
AaronLad said:
But he compared them with supreme winners, and ultimately that's what he would've wanted from this lad, and he's clearly not seeing the same in him as he did the 3 you mentioned. I would also say he's being truthful and he knows jet powered has no chance of winning a supreme.
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Wel we can all make our own mind up on quotes we get.
We obviously look at this differently.
You may be right…… then again
 
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