2022 Novice Chase Division

[fatherjohn]

I wouldn't usually have the juveniles on my mind too much when considering the following year's novice chasers. It's a big ask for them to go to the top of the tree over fences as 5 year olds. I suppose Fakir nearly did it in last year's Arkle - any other recent examples?

allmankind gave it a decent go this year and 2nd fav for arkle so might be a bit of recently bias but a lot will depend on Saturday.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

he did land two of the four novice chases this year so he can't be discounted, imo.

He has a once in a lifetime horse in Shishkin and had Envoi Allen stood up he would no doubt not have won the Marsh, I agree Hendo is the most likely of the UK trainers but that is reflective of his owners investment in the game (Donnellys and JP were his 2 winning owners this year)....

 

[Viking Flagship]

Saint Calvados ruined his chance. Same sire.

Nicholls does well with these types though.
And the sire appears to get decent chasers who do particularly well in their early years.

I think if Monmiral can win this week, and win well, then he is a lively one for the arkle, especially on looks.
He'd be close to the best juvenile depending how well he runs Thursday.

Yep fair points. I'm always open to finding exceptions to the rule, although I do find it quite logical that juveniles would struggle to be champion novice chasers when going straight over fences the following season - which makes it harder to convince myself that there'll be an exception in any given year. Doing well with this type and winning an Arkle/Marsh are very different things... he'll be campaigned brilliantly and probably bag the Rising Stars at Wincanton doing cartwheels. He'll then get beat in the Henry VIII before having his sights lowered and mopping up 2 or 3 more nice paydays. PFN will then say he'll be minded as he'll make a smashing 6 year old so it'll be back to Aintree for the Manifesto :highly_amused:

 

[Viking Flagship]

allmankind gave it a decent go this year and 2nd fav for arkle so might be a bit of recently bias but a lot will depend on Saturday.

Quite right, I forgot about him. Thing is though, even the examples that we're able to recall were horses that still came up short. I've just had a look back and Voy Por Ustedes was the last 5yo Arkle winner 15 years ago - and ironically enough I remember backing him!! A purple patch for 5yos between 98-06 with 4 winners, none since. Maybe we're due one..!

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I've just had a look back and Voy Por Ustedes was the last 5yo Arkle winner 15 years ago - and ironically enough I remember backing him!! A purple patch for 5yos between 98-06 with 4 winners, none since. Maybe we're due one..!

I could be wrong but 5yo used to get an 8lb allowance and I think VPU would have been one of the last winners winners before that was pulled (I think they went down to a 1lb allowance then did away with it completely)...

 

[Lobos]

Dusart would be close to top of my list if they go over fences

Would be near the top of mine as well for the Arkle specifically taking into account Henderson's incredible record in the race.

 

[Quevega]

Yep fair points. I'm always open to finding exceptions to the rule, although I do find it quite logical that juveniles would struggle to be champion novice chasers when going straight over fences the following season - which makes it harder to convince myself that there'll be an exception in any given year. Doing well with this type and winning an Arkle/Marsh are very different things... he'll be campaigned brilliantly and probably bag the Rising Stars at Wincanton doing cartwheels. He'll then get beat in the Henry VIII before having his sights lowered and mopping up 2 or 3 more nice paydays. PFN will then say he'll be minded as he'll make a smashing 6 year old so it'll be back to Aintree for the Manifesto :highly_amused:

I kind of agree. And it's not hard to jump on the UK trainers are shite bandwagon. I'll be avoiding them more than normal.
But Nichols can still train champion 2 milers.
He won the Champion chase with a 5yr old in Master Minded.
I personally like to see the French bred's go over fences sooner rather than later.

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Gallyhill for the Brown Advisory??? He looks like he needs 3m already i.e. not the quickest. A big money purchase, trained by Henderson with the horse being highly regarded by Henrietta Knight. Of course there are more likely Irish winners of the race at this stage but I wouldn’t rule him out just yet. Other than those already mentioned, I can’t think of any more which is a sorry state of affairs for the UK.

 

[BigChaang]

Well .... Someone's got to stick up for the Tizzard Team :unconscious: , I'm hoping Oscar Elite goes on to Better thing's next season , .
Second to Vanillier in the Bartlett and beat Kenyan Cowboy - 3rd on sun. and Brewers Project 1st on Sunday ... Here's Hoping...:eagerness:.

 

[Birds Nest]

Possibly, but Nicholls and many in the UK made Bravemansgame a cross between Arkle and Big Bucks and he got smashed.

Everyone will have their own view but there has been a very strong trend in recent years towards Irish horses, this isn’t going to be reversed any time soon, there will need to be a fundamental change to the entire way UK racing (NH) is structured for that to happen, so my starting point for 21/22 has to be Irish....

Its numbers too, 50% more broodmares and stallions in ireland than the uk, nearly twice as many foals born in ireland than the uk too, and its going to stay that way too..

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Its numbers too, 50% more broodmares and stallions in ireland than the uk, nearly twice as many foals born in ireland than the uk too, and its going to stay that way too..

Definitely, no point going into detail about why the difference exists, for my it's got nothing to do with the quality of trainers/training regime, but there's no question the infrastructure is there for Irish dominance for some time yet and even if the BHA conducted a radical overhaul (which they won't) of everything from handicapping to prize money it would still take time for the trend to be reversed.
23-5 might be a freak year but I think we should be expecting odds around 1/6 for Ireland to win for a few years yet...

 

[FinalFurlong91]

UK won the arkle and the marsh and had the 2nd in the 3 miler and 2nd in the NHC

thats pretty good ain't it

It was the other races the UK trainers got clobbered

 

[Lobos]

UK won the arkle and the marsh and had the 2nd in the 3 miler and 2nd in the NHC

thats pretty good ain't it

It was the other races the UK trainers got clobbered

Won Arkle with only real rival pulling out and Marsh with odds on fav falling. Could say they won at least 1 maybe both by default.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Won Arkle with only real rival pulling out and Marsh with odds on fav falling. Could say they won at least 1 maybe both by default.

Winners by default pay better than fallers and non runners :angel:

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Monmiral looks very talented

Adagio clattered the last but monmiral sprinted away and always looked like he would win to my eye

Was well worth risking the 45s

 

[Big Bucks]

Monmiral looks very talented

Adagio clattered the last but monmiral sprinted away and always looked like he would win to my eye

Was well worth risking the 45s

Does trained by Paul Nicholls put you off, sending runners to Cheltenham, skipped this year with it! Annoyed with myself not taking it now, but suppose gut reason was the PN factor.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Does trained by Paul Nicholls put you off, sending runners to Cheltenham, skipped this year with it! Annoyed with myself not taking it now, but suppose gut reason was the PN factor.

At such a big price it seemed worth the risk

My feeling would be that if Monmiral shows himself to be a genuine contender he will run in the Arkle

If he looks to be just short of proper grade 1 class he will run at Aintree

Id think hed have run in the triumph this year had Nicholls known how small the field would be

 

[Bestmate 79]

Monmiral looks very talented

Adagio clattered the last but monmiral sprinted away and always looked like he would win to my eye

Was well worth risking the 45s

I’m happy i took the 40/1 before the race and as predicted now best price 20/1 from what I can see.

I was happy the way monmiral jumped the last and then accelerated away , would have been nice to see how the battle with Adagio would have played out if Adagio had not hit the last but for me Monmiral would still have won easily .

 

[Winging The Last]

Sounds like Nicholls is preferring hurdles next season with Monmiral. With the Fighting Fifth earmarked as a starting point next season. Says 5 year olds struggle in novice chases so may want to wait till 5/6 season.

Said this in the Racing TV interview after the race

 

[Attaglance]

PN has a terrible record in the Arkle, would certainly put me off, looked a decent performance all the same, but will probably run back at Aintree next year again IMO. Good luck all that are on at big prices. :encouragement: