2022 Novice Chase Division

[Deleted member 4957]

Specifically with bob olinger, the pace he showed and Henry saying he was considering the supreme I would be surprised if they stepped him up to 3M next season.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR][/FONT]

Just to respond on this specific point, I'm of the view that this years Ballymore will be seen as a quality renewal, I'm not sure there's been a race where connections exuded so much confidence as those of Galliard du Mesnil and Bravemansgame, Harry Cobden specifically made BMG an absolute brute and wouldn't hear of defeat and he spoke of his total shock when coming down the hill approaching the turn Bob came to him tanking, 300 yards later Bob had pout 12l between the pair and he wasn't stopping at the line.
For me the Bob performance was a serious 'wow', if it hadn't been for Allaho's demolition of his Ryanair field I think Bob's performance would have discussed more, not least because of the quality in behind.
I could easily be wrong but I don't see HDB/Robcur thinking about dropping the horse back in trip having hit the line so hard in his Ballymore, what targets they have for him for the remainder of this season I have no idea but I'd be surprised, assuming a switch to fences, if he wasn't seen over 3m before March...

 

[Silverbirch]

Appreciate it from the start has been spoke about going further, I'll be very surprised if he's not in the Marsh/3M.

Ferny would be my pick of a Willie arkle horse.

 

[Kautostar]

Im on Bob for the Arkle, its Henry's favourite Novice race, and he often places in it, with the occasional win.
He runs almost nothing in the Marsh.
He seems quite traditional with a decent record in the 3M and 2M novice chase races.

I looked into this recently and it’s just a myth. He runs his horses where they have the best chance of winning. There was nothing that he should have run in the marsh apart from sizing John the year that douvan won the Arkle maybe.
Ultimately bob olinger will run in what race suits bob olinger the best nearer the time.

 

[Big Chac]

I don't disagree with your comments but I can't think of a winner of the race (Marsh/JLT) who has gone onto better things, so what is the race a stepping stone to ?
I think when the powers that be created the intermediate division they expected the Marsh to create future Ryanair horses but of course if you have a top quality 20f horse you would naturally want to see if they had the speed to win over 2m or the stamina to stay over 26.5f.
Running over 20f is fine but it's a reasonable adjustment for that horse to then race over 4f less or 6.5f futher, we've had the discussion in here plenty of times but I'm not sure Mo Farah spent too much time improving his 800m times when practising for the Olympic 1500m.
One day a horse will win the Marsh and go onto win a Gold Cup but until that happens I will be sceptical on its' suitability as a blue ribband trial...

Fair point, I can’t think of a marsh winner that has gone onto better things but I think the reputation of the few that I mentioned were held in very high regard and it just didn’t work out for them, rather them not being that good. I’m with you about running a little less/further is a reasonable adjustment and class usually prevails and I suppose this has something to do with why the horses that run in the marsh don’t have a specific stepping stone as from there you can go up and down in trip and run in the champion chase/gold cup. I don’t see why you would avoid the intermediate trip if your horse is bless with speed & stamina at that point in their career, there’s plenty of options once you step into open company to test against the best 2 milers, like defi and 3+ miles and then drop back down to the Ryan air if you don’t cut the mustard.
Interesting points Ista, nice to hear other points of views this early on.

 

[Big Chac]

I looked into this recently and it’s just a myth. He runs his horses where they have the best chance of winning. There was nothing that he should have run in the marsh apart from sizing John the year that douvan won the Arkle maybe.
Ultimately bob olinger will run in what race suits bob olinger the best nearer the time.

Agree with this, think his best horses have either been 2 or 3 miles with nothing of bob's quality running at the intermediate trip. He also has ballyadam and possibly aspire tower if he fancies an Arkle runner.

 

[OverTheLast]

Left field shout but I'm mad keen on Cobblers Way for chasing. He was a very decent novice hurdler imo and obviously Henrys usually always progress for a fence .. that's if he's still in training?! Haven't heard much on him since he was pulled up in the '20 Albert Bartlett.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Fair point, I can’t think of a marsh winner that has gone onto better things but I think the reputation of the few that I mentioned were held in very high regard and it just didn’t work out for them, rather them not being that good. I’m with you about running a little less/further is a reasonable adjustment and class usually prevails and I suppose this has something to do with why the horses that run in the marsh don’t have a specific stepping stone as from there you can go up and down in trip and run in the champion chase/gold cup. I don’t see why you would avoid the intermediate trip if your horse is bless with speed & stamina at that point in their career, there’s plenty of options once you step into open company to test against the best 2 milers, like defi and 3+ miles and then drop back down to the Ryan air if you don’t cut the mustard.
Interesting points Ista, nice to hear other points of views this early on.

Yeah, I just think if your long term plan is Gold Cup then you'd want to test your horses stamina and head for the 3m/NH Chase, and if your target is Champion Chase then why would you want to stretch the horses stamina, of course there will be horses who surprise and/or trainers who simply have no idea.
It's a game every Spring, where does horse x and horse y target next year, I think the reality about this Spring is that Ireland have an embarrassment of riches and thankfully across several owners so there should, in fact will, be some mouthwatering clashes to look forward to even if picking those specific races is the tricky bit...

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Does anyone see Vanillier heading down the NH Chase route ?
What sort of pilot could Gavin Cromwell secure ?

 

[Birds Nest]

Does anyone see Vanillier heading down the NH Chase route ?
What sort of pilot could Gavin Cromwell secure ?

He might stick with joey Dunne, one of the rising stars in the ranks, he also rides a bit for Meade too,.

 

[Lobos]

Dusart has been back in full training following his injury and may run at Aintree.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Dusart has been back in full training following his injury and may run at Aintree.

Surprised he isn't priced up anywhere for the CH.

 

[Lobos]

Surprised he isn't priced up anywhere for the CH.

The Churdle will be dominated by Mares for as long as any allowances are still in place. IMO no one should be looking beyond the girls for that race.

 

[Magpie]

The Churdle will be dominated by Mares for as long as any allowances are still in place. IMO no one should be looking beyond the girls for that race.

Agree with you Lobos, it’s so difficult to compete if the mares are a bit special. Surely the allowances have to be reduced by a few pounds.

 

[Lobos]

Agree with you Lobos, it’s so difficult to compete if the mares are a bit special. Surely the allowances have to be reduced by a few pounds.

It may drop to 5lbs in a couple of years but that won't change much. It's a ridiculous advantage but one the punters should always take advantage of too. The likes of Appreciate It and Dusart will go chasing as Mullins and co know they'll not be able to give weight to Honeysuckle and co.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Hmmm. He's 20/1 for the RSA. How savage could that look in 10 months?

I’ve been thinking of making Gallard Du Mesnil for the RSA a real priority.

I’ve already got 2pts at 33/1 but as long as he is 16s or 20s I will be round out my balances by backing him.
I’d like to think I will end up with a couple of points of relatively free points(I know that’s me kidding myself)

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

The Churdle will be dominated by Mares for as long as any allowances are still in place. IMO no one should be looking beyond the girls for that race.

I think you're probably right. They should run off levels imo. Annie Power, Epatante and Honeysuckle would have won off level weights.

Is there any word of them changing it? I'm guessing it'd be something that they'd phase in?!

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I think you're probably right. They should run off levels imo. Annie Power, Epatante and Honeysuckle would have won off level weights.

Is there any word of them changing it? I'm guessing it'd be something that they'd phase in?!

I think if you have an exceptional mare the point may hold but Honeysuckles, Annie Powers and to a lesser extent Epatantes don’t appear every year. I wouldn’t assume Mares per se will have it their own way.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think if you have an exceptional mare the point may hold but Honeysuckles, Annie Powers and to a lesser extent Epatantes don’t appear every year. I wouldn’t assume Mares per se will have it their own way.

3 out of the last 6 winners are mares and this coincides with the improved mares programme.

I think they are at a huge advantage now with the weight allowance.

 

[Stormez]

The mares program has undoubtedly improved the quality of mares in training, but to remove the allowance off the back of just 3 top class mares seems counter productive to the objectives of the mares program.

They might not need the allowance, but every other mare in training appears to, and you can’t let a minuscule percentage dictate to the vast majority.

 

[Sprinter Sacre]

The Churdle will be dominated by Mares for as long as any allowances are still in place. IMO no one should be looking beyond the girls for that race.

Excuse my ignorance but are there any other races with such an allowance?