2022 Novice Chase Division

[Deleted member 4957]

All Arkle, Marsh, 3m (ex RSA) and NH Chase discussion

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Current Top-Rated TIMEFORM Novice Hurdlers

160p	APPRECIATE IT
159p	BOB OLINGER
151	GAILLARD DU MESNIL
150p	GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
149p	MY DROGO
148	WILDE ABOUT OSCAR
147p	VANILLIER
146p	THIRD TIME LUCKI
146	BLUE LORD
146	BRAVEMANSGAME
145+	BEAR GHYLLS
145	BALLYADAM
145	MASTER MCSHEE
143p	SHEWEARSITWELL (f)
142	SOARING GLORY
142x	STONER'S CHOICE
141p	CAPE GENTLEMAN
141p	FLASH COLLONGES
141	FOR PLEASURE
140p	CALICO
140p	PAY THE PIPER

 

[The King Pimm]

I think the prices on many of the market leaders are too short, a few may seem fair come December but most are shockingly short. The one horse that does look over priced even this far out is James De Berlais. He struggled to keep up in the Champion Hurdle but he was thrown in. He won some big races in France before joining Willie Mullins this season. The plan was always chasing next season and he is one of the highest rated novice hurdlers going chasing next season but will only be 6 in 2022. He’s currently 33/1 for the Arkle & Marsh with B365 and one of the best AP bets I’ve seen for 2022.

 

[MadeinJapan]

I think the prices on many of the market leaders are too short, a few may seem fair come December but most are shockingly short. The one horse that does look over priced even this far out is James De Berlais. He struggled to keep up in the Champion Hurdle but he was thrown in. He won some big races in France before joining Willie Mullins this season. The plan was always chasing next season and he is one of the highest rated novice hurdlers going chasing next season but will only be 6 in 2022. He’s currently 33/1 for the Arkle & Marsh with B365 and one of the best AP bets I’ve seen for 2022.

Munir & Souede also have Blue Lord who could be aimed at the Arkle if going chasing (I thought he’d be a CH contender tbh if staying hurdling) too - James De Berlais then being their runner in the Marsh to split them up maybe?

 

[Hurricane fly]

Wilde about oscars rating is an absolute farce

 

[Leman14]

My diary doesn’t get much traffic (understandably), but I mentioned James Du Berlais earlier in the week.

Virgin have very kindly given me TWO 1pt Free Bets as a Birthday Present :smiley_simmons:
(Not sure if I was supposed to get two, but I'm not complaining!)

First one has gone on James Du Berlais for the Marsh @ 33/1

Bought with chasing in mind and ran over intermediate trip in France (IMO Only ran over 2m at Cheltenham as it was either that or the Stayers)
My GUESS, is that they will put him over fences at the intermediate trip with Appreciate It likely (IMO) staying over 2m.

IMO he will go Marsh and have backed accordingly (albeit, with Free Bets)

 

[Craigy14]

Munir & Souede also have Blue Lord who could be aimed at the Arkle if going chasing (I thought he’d be a CH contender tbh if staying hurdling) too - James De Berlais then being their runner in the Marsh to split them up maybe?

Remember WPM ran Blue Lord over 2m4f and if he’d settled would see the distance out no problem imo. Fences may help to do that.

I’ve chucked a sky freebie on James Du Berlais for the Arkle at the moment.

Lets be honest though WPM has an absolute abundance of potentially talented novice chasers this season, a couple will stay hurdling of course too.

Appreciate It
Blue Lord
Gaillard Du Mesnil
Galopin Des Champs
Haut En Couleours
Gars En Noir
James Du Berlais
Ferny Hollow?

Not bothered with the ones who will almost certainly be 3m+

 

[charlie]

Appreciate It & Bob Olinger both looked awesome, but are priced up accordingly. With targets uncertain, you'd be a brave man to put them in the book.

Arkle - Appreciate It @ 7/2, Bob Olinger @ 10/1
Marsh - Bob Olinger @ 5/1, Appreciate It @ 6/1
RSA - Appreciate It @ 12/1, Bob Olinger @ 20/1

I like the idea of Bob Olinger Arkle and Appreciate It Marsh. Ferny Hollow waits in the wings for WPM and I'd say he probably has more natural speed that AI. HDB loves his 2 mile chasers and has always been keen to talk up BO's speed.

Gaillard Du Mesnil & Galopin Des Champs were to two that really excited me because they were backable at 40's and 33's post Cheltenham, which I took. I think both will have very bright futures

My Drogo & Bravemansgame are the only two British horses I've backed so far (both RSA).

 

[DenmanSacre]

I like Galopin Des Champs, but my thought heading into Cheltenham was that he will show his best on better ground. He will be running on bottomless ground again all winter and it wouldn't surprise me to see him relatively struggle again and then show his best in Spring. One I'll be waiting to have a bet on as he could run in a number of races.

 

[Madmoose]

I like Galopin Des Champs, but my thought heading into Cheltenham was that he will show his best on better ground. He will be running on bottomless ground again all winter and it wouldn't surprise me to see him relatively struggle again and then show his best in Spring. One I'll be waiting to have a bet on as he could run in a number of races.

I would say more the step in trip helped him rather than the ground, the run at Xmas when pulled up early for example wasn’t a ground issue he just wasn’t right that day and ran well vs Appreciate It at the DRF but didn’t have the gears over 2m against him and Ballyadam.

 

[Cooldaddy]

I see some predictions of where the big boys will be going.

Appreciate IT - Clearly this can and may well improve for a step up. However is clearly quick enough over 2m - Arkle
Bob Olinger - This horse is a tool, probably would win any of the novice chases. It will go I am sure Marsh

 

[OverTheLast]

I’d love to see Gaillard Du Mesnil campaigned as an RSA horse. He beat a load of stayers over 2m6f at the DRF, and truth be told ran a good race and probably ran into a freak at Cheltenham.. though i’m told 6 yo’s don’t have a great record in it?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Plenty of talk re potential 3m (ex RSA) horses but is Bob Olinger not the obvious candidate here ?
I can see the Marsh being considered but he absolutely tanked his way through the Ballymore and wasn’t stopping, the 3m race would seem the obvious progression for me...

 

[charlie]

Plenty of talk re potential 3m (ex RSA) horses but is Bob Olinger not the obvious candidate here ?
I can see the Marsh being considered but he absolutely tanked his way through the Ballymore and wasn’t stopping, the 3m race would seem the obvious progression for me...

Hmmm. He's 20/1 for the RSA. How savage could that look in 10 months?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Hmmm. He's 20/1 for the RSA. How savage could that look in 10 months?

I think there’s just an assumption he is a 20f horse but where does that put in in 2023, Ryanair ?
If that’s the long term project then I’ll give the game up, you see whether your horse is Gold Cup or Champion Chase standard and only when they’ve proved themselves not to be do you look towards Ryanairs.
I’d be very very tempted by that 20/1...

 

[charlie]

I think there’s just an assumption he is a 20f horse but where does that put in in 2023, Ryanair ?
If that’s the long term project then I’ll give the game up, you see whether your horse is Gold Cup or Champion Chase standard and only when they’ve proved themselves not to be do you look towards Ryanairs.
I’d be very very tempted by that 20/1...

I've taken it Ista! I'm making a book on the RSA this year and it would be unforgivable to leave BO unbacked at 23/1 (boosted with betfair).

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I've taken it Ista! I'm making a book on the RSA this year and it would be unforgivable to leave BO unbacked at 23/1 (boosted with betfair).

Best of luck charlie, I’ve just checked and the 20/1 is only available at betfair sportsbook sadly, I can get pennies at 12/1 and a few quid at 10/1, so I’ll leave it...

 

[Big Chac]

I think there’s just an assumption he is a 20f horse but where does that put in in 2023, Ryanair ?
If that’s the long term project then I’ll give the game up, you see whether your horse is Gold Cup or Champion Chase standard and only when they’ve proved themselves not to be do you look towards Ryanairs.
I’d be very very tempted by that 20/1...

Interested in your post here ista, I don’t think the Marsh is a stepping stone for the Ryan air. Take envoi allen this season always been considered a gold cup horse of the future with the ryan air never mentioned and he went Marsh. There was also lostintranslation who went gold cup, defi went champion chase, looking further back yorkhill/sire des champ were both considered gold cup horses of the future.
I don’t think the intermediate novice chase means you’ll be prepared towards the ryan air when they step into open company. I think its more of a case of what suits the horse at that stage of their career.
Specifically with bob olinger, the pace he showed and Henry saying he was considering the supreme I would be surprised if they stepped him up to 3M next season. Just my opinion of course and probably because I have backed him only for the Marsh. I may cover look at covering other options soon enough though.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Appreciate It & Bob Olinger both looked awesome, but are priced up accordingly. With targets uncertain, you'd be a brave man to put them in the book.

Arkle - Appreciate It @ 7/2, Bob Olinger @ 10/1
Marsh - Bob Olinger @ 5/1, Appreciate It @ 6/1
RSA - Appreciate It @ 12/1, Bob Olinger @ 20/1

I like the idea of Bob Olinger Arkle and Appreciate It Marsh. Ferny Hollow waits in the wings for WPM and I'd say he probably has more natural speed that AI. HDB loves his 2 mile chasers and has always been keen to talk up BO's speed.

Gaillard Du Mesnil & Galopin Des Champs were to two that really excited me because they were backable at 40's and 33's post Cheltenham, which I took. I think both will have very bright futures

My Drogo & Bravemansgame are the only two British horses I've backed so far (both RSA).

Im on Bob for the Arkle, its Henry's favourite Novice race, and he often places in it, with the occasional win.
He runs almost nothing in the Marsh.
He seems quite traditional with a decent record in the 3M and 2M novice chase races.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Interested in your post here ista, I don’t think the Marsh is a stepping stone for the Ryan air. Take envoi allen this season always been considered a gold cup horse of the future with the ryan air never mentioned and he went Marsh. There was also lostintranslation who went gold cup, defi went champion chase, looking further back yorkhill/sire des champ were both considered gold cup horses of the future.
I don’t think the intermediate novice chase means you’ll be prepared towards the ryan air when they step into open company. I think its more of a case of what suits the horse at that stage of their career.
Specifically with bob olinger, the pace he showed and Henry saying he was considering the supreme I would be surprised if they stepped him up to 3M next season. Just my opinion of course and probably because I have backed him only for the Marsh. I may cover look at covering other options soon enough though.

I don't disagree with your comments but I can't think of a winner of the race (Marsh/JLT) who has gone onto better things, so what is the race a stepping stone to ?
I think when the powers that be created the intermediate division they expected the Marsh to create future Ryanair horses but of course if you have a top quality 20f horse you would naturally want to see if they had the speed to win over 2m or the stamina to stay over 26.5f.
Running over 20f is fine but it's a reasonable adjustment for that horse to then race over 4f less or 6.5f futher, we've had the discussion in here plenty of times but I'm not sure Mo Farah spent too much time improving his 800m times when practising for the Olympic 1500m.
One day a horse will win the Marsh and go onto win a Gold Cup but until that happens I will be sceptical on its' suitability as a blue ribband trial...