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2022 Gold Cup

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Didnt realise Carefully Selected was still about either, another really random entry.
 
….weird if the Pertemps winner is in those GC entries.
 
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Like a lot of punters, Gordon Elliott reckons Galvin is tailor-made for the stamina-sapping test a Gold Cup presents, and also revealed why the novice Run Wild Fred has been entered along with last year's Kim Muir winner Mount Ida, the sole mare left in the race.

Elliott said: "It looks a wide open Gold Cup this year and you can probably pick a few holes in them all. You never know what could happen over the next few weeks so I've entered Run Wild Fred and Mount Ida, as well as Galvin, Delta Work and Conflated.

"We haven't even put a saddle on Galvin since he won the Savills – he's having an easy week. He goes straight for the Gold Cup and, at this stage, you would have to say he ticks an awful lot of the boxes."
 
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Next Destination has a leg injury and won't run again this season. RP article
 
Mount Idas really good and I thought the 7/1 about her for the mares chase represented a decent bit of value after beating elimay whilst giving her weight & looking like there was a bit more left if needed. I’d just backed her for the mares chase so it’s a bit of a curveball seeing this entry. For all I think she’s decent I would be surprised if she’s good enough for a gold cup though. Surely if that’s what they’re thinking they’d have to try her in the Irish GC first? But then they risk giving her a hard race, losing anyway and potentially damaging her chances for the mares race.
 
ToniC said:
Mount Idas really good and I thought the 7/1 about her for the mares chase represented a decent bit of value after beating elimay whilst giving her weight & looking like there was a bit more left if needed. I’d just backed her for the mares chase so it’s a bit of a curveball seeing this entry. For all I think she’s decent I would be surprised if she’s good enough for a gold cup though. Surely if that’s what they’re thinking they’d have to try her in the Irish GC first? But then they risk giving her a hard race, losing anyway and potentially damaging her chances for the mares race.
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Prep race for the GN?
 
Milbear0 said:
Prep race for the GN?
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Every chance, but not really a proven recipe for success at aintree if that’s what they’re thinking though.

At the end of the day if she lines up in the gold cup for all I think she’s not good enough right now she’d probably carry my money on the day. The entry alone is interesting enough, and Gordon’s not daft. For him to overlook the significantly easier mares chase, where she’s already beaten 2 of the likely major players, in favour of it would be a big endorsement of her chances. Probably not one I’ll get involved with antepost though.
 
you can of course back Mount Ida at 25/1 NRNB and BOG with B365, IF you think you would like to be on board ,
 
ToniC said:
Mount Idas really good and I thought the 7/1 about her for the mares chase represented a decent bit of value after beating elimay whilst giving her weight & looking like there was a bit more left if needed. I’d just backed her for the mares chase so it’s a bit of a curveball seeing this entry. For all I think she’s decent I would be surprised if she’s good enough for a gold cup though. Surely if that’s what they’re thinking they’d have to try her in the Irish GC first? But then they risk giving her a hard race, losing anyway and potentially damaging her chances for the mares race.
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Just to counter this (and deliberately playing devil's advocate) - I'm sure I remember someone on pedigree saying that she was significantly more likely to enjoy a step up in trip sooo...

Last year she ran to a max RPR of 143 prior to Cheltenham, before running 17lbs higher over 3m2f in the KM (160RPR). Now I get she was being handicapped before (probably), so let's say she was running 7lb below her 2m4f form at that time, suggesting she's a 10lb better horse with the extra 6f to run.

This season, she's already run to 154 over 2m4f. If we extrapolate 10lb improvement for the step up in trip and add an extra 7lb for the Mares allowance, that puts her at a projected RPR of 171, which is bang there isn't it?

Now I'm not for a second saying it's as simple as that and I'd argue she's not quite that good and would have no chance if she jumped like she did initially in the Kim Muir, but it's also not difficult to make an argument that she could have a place chance. Bearing in mind she's only started over 3m once, there could even be more improvement at that distance?
 
ToniC said:
Every chance, but not really a proven recipe for success at aintree if that’s what they’re thinking though.

At the end of the day if she lines up in the gold cup for all I think she’s not good enough right now she’d probably carry my money on the day. The entry alone is interesting enough, and Gordon’s not daft. For him to overlook the significantly easier mares chase, where she’s already beaten 2 of the likely major players, in favour of it would be a big endorsement of her chances. Probably not one I’ll get involved with antepost though.
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It’s a good trial for the national
 
Milbear0 said:
Prep race for the GN?
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May well be and every owners dream to have a GC runner or a GN runner........or even both in the same season! Don't blame them at all for going for Gold. It's not all about winning for owners.
 
Harry Skelton: The Irish look to have the strongest hand with the three-mile chasers, but they haven’t run against Protektorat yet! He’s in great form, he’s just had a quiet time since Aintree. I’d have thought we’ll head straight to the Gold Cup now.
 
Still a long way to go but if you had had to have a bet right now in this, who would it be? That’s on current prices and ignoring all bets already placed

Galvin at 6s and Protektorat at 14s would be the two I’d suggest are decent prices on all known form.

Can’t see A Plus Tard going much shorter than his current price so if you wanted to bet him, at this point you’d just wait til the day because someone will be offering 7/2 on the morning for sure.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Still a long way to go but if you had had to have a bet right now in this, who would it be? That’s on current prices and ignoring all bets already placed
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Melon @ 66/1.
Done a write up previously as to why. but even based on the run at Christmas, he has 5 1/4 lengths to find with Galvin but is 11x his price and nearly 15x the price of A Plus Tard.

He just got jostled for position as Galvin came out wide and Patrick seemed to give it up, but was then ridden again. Janidil went past him at the last (or 2nd last,can't remember), but Melon battled back past him and, although I don't have the times of the finishers, visually he looked to be staying on as well as the winner at the line. The extra 2f may well suit, based on the visuals he gave.

Disclaimer: There may be a fair bit of bias in this post as I have him in a double with Tornado Flyer from the King George, however my points still stand :highly_amused:
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Still a long way to go but if you had had to have a bet right now in this, who would it be? That’s on current prices and ignoring all bets already placed

Galvin at 6s and Protektorat at 14s would be the two I’d suggest are decent prices on all known form.

Can’t see A Plus Tard going much shorter than his current price so if you wanted to bet him, at this point you’d just wait til the day because someone will be offering 7/2 on the morning for sure.
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Initially, I was blinded by the National but as the weeks have ticked by I've come round to Galvin being the GC winner. He's had a good prep and will go into the race fresh.
At the very least I feel you'll get a decent run from him and you'd have confidence that he will be staying on up the hill.

5/1ew feels a solid bet, with the safety blanket of NRNB. Barring an unforeseen incident I'd be disappointed if he wasn't in the first three home. Will be using him in a few ew doubles until the place part drops below 1/1.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Still a long way to go but if you had had to have a bet right now in this, who would it be? That’s on current prices and ignoring all bets already placed

Galvin at 6s and Protektorat at 14s would be the two I’d suggest are decent prices on all known form.

Can’t see A Plus Tard going much shorter than his current price so if you wanted to bet him, at this point you’d just wait til the day because someone will be offering 7/2 on the morning for sure.
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Id back minella indo at 10s and protektorat at 14s

Still can't see Galvin winning personally, but good luck to those on at big prices
 
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